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2024 NFLTR Top 100: 20-11

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Our 2024 NFLTR Top 100 Players series continues today with players 20-11.

Joe Burrow

This is the third year of the series giving our take on the league’s top 100 players, compiled rigorously using both traditional and advanced statistics, awards, positional value, career trajectory and a dash of intuition.

We’ll be rolling these out over the next couple of weeks to pass the time until training camp, so keep an eye out for the rest of the 2024 NFLTR Top 100!

Resources: 

20: Buccaneers LT Tristan Wirfs

Offensive linemen, tackles especially, compare switching sides to learning to write with your non-dominant hand — or more colorful analogies. It makes sense, as the foundation of playing the position is built on repeating precise, technical movements over and over and over. 

That makes what Wirfs accomplished in 2023 even more remarkable. He went from being one of the best right tackles in football in 2022 to switching to the left side without skipping too much of a beat. While he didn’t repeat his remarkable year of just six pressures allowed on 652 snaps, Wirfs’ 98 percent pass block efficiency (PFF) was still the fourth-best figure among all tackles in 2023. His 96.7 rating in true pass sets was a career low but it was still better than all but six other tackles. 

More time on task should only make Wirfs more dominant. Wirfs was probably 95 percent as good on the left as he had been on the right. It’s only a matter of time til he hits 100 percent or better. 

19: Eagles RT Lane Johnson

Johnson seemed to take a step back in 2023. The issues with the offense might have been part of the reason, as well as injuries and the fact Johnson was 33 years old. Whatever the reasons, Johnson’s effectiveness dipped.

PFF had charted him with zero sacks allowed over the past two seasons and two over the past four years. He was dinged for three in 2023, as well as 35 pressures allowed. Johnson also saw his pass block win rate dip from 95 percent over the past two seasons to 92 percent in 2023. He slid from first on ESPN’s leaderboard to ninth.

However, that also illustrates some perspective that should be taken with Johnson. Yes, his play declined. And yes, he’s still one of the best tackles in football. His true pass set efficiency of 95.4 percent was 17th out of 86 tackles, per PFF, and he allowed just one sack on those plays. Johnson was also ESPN’s top tackle in run block win rate at 82 percent. 

18: Jets CB Sauce Gardner

Gardner followed up a spectacular rookie season with a second year that was almost equally as good. His ball production went down significantly, going from two interceptions and 20 pass deflections as a rookie to no picks and 11 pass breakups in Year 2. But a big reason for that is teams stopped testing Gardner quite as much. Different stat services have different numbers, but PFF charted Gardner with 73 targets in 2022 and 51 in 2023, and that’s about the size of the drop for all the services. 

Gardner remained phenomenal, allowing just a 56.9 completion percentage for 251 yards. He was beaten for just one touchdown all season and had the second-highest snaps per target of any cornerback in the league. That reluctance by other teams to test Gardner is why he’s going to have to make the most of the opportunities he does get. PFF marked him down for three dropped interceptions, which was among the higher marks among defensive backs. 

17: Texans QB C.J. Stroud

Stroud was the runaway winner for Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, but he was more than just the best rookie. He made a case as a top 10 quarterback in the NFL straight out of the gate. Houston went from preseason favorite for the first overall pick in 2024 to winning the AFC South and winning a playoff game — an astounding level of success for a rookie. 

Stroud completed 63.9 percent of his pass attempts for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He led the NFL in passing yards per game with 273.9, and his interception percentage was also the best in the NFL. Stroud had a 7.48 adjusted net yards per attempt, which is a neat metric that factors in sacks, interceptions and touchdowns, and ranked third in the NFL in that category. 

But I was actually surprised when putting together the stats for this blurb at how ordinary some of Stroud’s other numbers were:

  • 57.5 QBR, 16th in the league
  • 46.7 success rate, 13th
  • TD percentage of 4.6 percent, 14th
  • Sack rate of 7.1 percent, 23rd
  • EPA per play of 0.135, completion percentage over expected of 0.2. Composite was 12th in the NFL. 
  • PFF grade of 83.1, 13th
  • 26 big-time throws per PFF, 4.4 BTT percentage, ranked 14th and 18th respectively
  • 2.8 percent of throws were turnover-worthy plays, 18th in the NFL
  • 17.4 percent pressure-to-sack rate, 15th
  • Responsible for 16.1 percent of his total pressures, 32nd out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks (also worse than Sam Howell, Zach Wilson and Tommy DeVito)

None of these are bad numbers, except for the QB allowed pressure. Outside of that, the rest range around the middle of the pack. They’re not bad, they just don’t quite line up with the narrative about how great Stroud was as a rookie.

So what does this mean? 

Stroud still passed the eye test with flying colors, doing 400-level NFL quarterback coursework despite supposedly coming in at a 101 level. There’s real validity in grading him on a curve, as a “good” year for a rookie quarterback would be a below-average year for a lot of veterans. The biggest jump for players usually comes between their first and second seasons, and Stroud has already set the bar incredibly high. We’ll just have to see how much higher he can push it. 

16: Chargers QB Justin Herbert

Last year was difficult for both Herbert and the Chargers as the team finally bottomed out under HC Brandon Staley, leading to his firing at the end of the year. Herbert missed the final four games of the season and things had started to come off the rails before that. It’s fair to say 2023 was probably a career low for Herbert, including in some statistical categories like completion percentage (65.1) and ANY/A (6.16). 

But Herbert quietly remained excellent in some other important categories. His touchdown and interception percentage stayed fairly in line with his career averages, and he actually had a higher percentage of big-time throws in 2023 than he did in 2022. His pressure to sack rate was ninth in the NFL and he was a top-five quarterback in ESPN’s QBR. 

The lack of team success remains the biggest critique against Herbert, but it’s hard to pin that on him given how statistically brilliant he’s been as a whole to start his career. It’ll be interesting to see how new HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman go about maximizing Herbert’s potential, as they’re sure to take a very different approach than his predecessors. 

15: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase

Chase battled through some less-than-ideal circumstances to record a strong statistical season in 2023. He set a new career high with 100 receptions that went for 1,216 yards. His catch rate of 69 percent was also a career-best, though it was helped by a career-low average depth of target. He had the fewest drops and best contested catch rate of his career. 

The frustrations from last year can be seen in the stats too, however. Chase’s seven touchdowns were the fewest in his three years, as was his 76 yards per game (though that still ranked 12th among all wideouts). Chase’s overall score of 66 in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics was the lowest of his career (though it was 19th out of 153 wideouts). 

Chase’s total package of skills still puts him near the top of the pecking order when it comes to receivers but you get the sense there’s still untapped potential to his game that he and the Bengals hope to reach this upcoming season. 

14: Bengals QB Joe Burrow

Injuries are unfortunately becoming a theme for Burrow. He had a serious calf injury during training camp that lingered into the season, clearly impacting his play for the first few weeks during a 1-3 start for the Bengals. Then in Week 10, Burrow was lost for the rest of the season with a wrist injury. 

In between all that, Burrow put together a vintage five-game stretch, leading the Bengals to a 4-1 record including wins against the Bills, Seahawks and 49ers — and it likely would have been 5-0 with a win against the Texans had WR Tyler Boyd not dropped a potential game-winning touchdown. Burrow completed 74 percent of his passes for 1,480 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, showing that as long as he’s on the field, he remains a problem for opponents. 

He just has to make sure he’s on the field. Jake Browning was a revelation as a backup but in possibly the last season before the Bengals’ Super Bowl window starts to meaningfully constrict, their title hopes rest on Burrow. 

13: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb

Lamb had already established himself as a top-ten receiver with more than 2,400 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns from 2021-2022, including a season in 2022 as the clear No. 1 after Dallas traded away Amari Cooper. But he took another step forward and asserted himself as a top five, perhaps even top three receiver with a colossal 2023 season. Lamb led the NFL in receptions with 135 for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns, and chipped in another 113 yards and two scores on the ground for good measure. He averaged over 100 yards per game and caught nearly 75 percent of his passes. 

He did all of this despite not actually seeing his snaps in the slot go up from the previous season (58.6 percent compared to 62.7 percent in 2022). Lamb saw a league-high 66 targets against man coverage and shredded it for 810 yards and seven touchdowns. His overall score of 85 in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics was fourth in the league and he had an open score of 85 that ranked second. Not only was Lamb an impossible cover, he was a weapon with the ball in his hands, forcing 20 missed tackles and ranking fourth in the NFL in yards after catch. 

If there’s a nit to pick, it’s contested catch situations where Lamb continued to struggle. He was charted as just 11 of 30 in those situations by PFF after going 14 of 30 in 2022. It hasn’t stopped him from being extraordinarily productive, obviously, but it is an area Lamb could continue to improve. 

12: Chiefs DT Chris Jones

Jones had to play hardball with the Chiefs to get a contract in line with Rams DT Aaron Donald at the top of the defensive tackle market, even holding out for the first game of the regular season. That led to a compromise to get him back on the field and Jones once again had a massive season, producing numbers that were right in line with Donald’s. 

Jones notched 10.5 sacks, hitting double-digits for the second straight year and the third time in his career. PFF actually credited him with 15 but the grading service doesn’t split sacks like the formal league stats. Jones’ 91 total pressures, per PFF, led all defensive tackles and his 20 percent pass rush win rate on ESPN’s leaderboard was equal to Donald at the top. 

Jones is one of the most impactful defensive players in the sport, and was a huge part of Kansas City’s outstanding defensive performance that fueled the Chiefs’ second straight Super Bowl. While the team has let other key players walk rather than pay the market price, it should speak volumes that they didn’t do that with Jones. Kansas City ponied up a five-year, $159 million deal to keep the lynchpin of their defense around for the foreseeable future. 

11: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill

Hill set a lofty goal before last season of hitting 2,000 receiving yards and had he not injured his ankle in Week 13, he might have done it. Hill missed just one game due to the injury but it nerfed his production in the one he was hurt and his averages went down from 123.4 yards to 85.6 in the three games after he returned. 

He still led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,799 and receiving touchdowns with 13. He’s been everything the Dolphins could have hoped for after trading for him, piling up over 3,500 receiving yards and 22 total touchdowns in two seasons. If it’s possible, Hill’s impact has been even bigger than those numbers because of how Miami’s offense is built around his game-changing speed. Not only does he create space for himself, but he opens things up for everyone else with the attention he draws and the way defenses have to defend him. 

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