The Wildcats have struggled this month. Can they pull off a win against the Tigers Saturday night?
I must admit that I was very wrong last week. This week, the Kentucky Wildcats are coming off a tough loss, having fallen to Florida 48-20.
This Saturday night, the Cats will host the Auburn Tigers, and in my opinion, this game could define the rest of the season for both teams.
Kentucky opened as a 2-point underdog to the Tigers, but the line has since shifted. Kentucky is now favored by 1.5 points. The Cats need a significant win in what promises to be an electric atmosphere at Kroger Field.
Here are the five keys for Kentucky to secure a victory against Auburn this weekend.
1. Running Back Room Must Be Solid
The injury report was not encouraging for Kentucky’s backfield. The offense will be without its two primary backs, Chip Trayanum and Demi Sumo-Karngbaye. DSK has shown promise this season, rushing for over 400 yards on 92 carries, while Trayanum has displayed strength during his limited plays last week. This week, we’ll see a lot of Jamarion Wilcox, and Jason Patterson will need to step up. Wilcox has been impressive at times. I also anticipate we’ll see more of Gavin Wimsatt this week to diversify the run game.
2. Force Turnovers
Kentucky’s defense has been strong this season, but there’s still work to be done. To succeed this weekend, it must force turnovers and provide the battered offense with favorable field position. JJ Weaver, one of the highest-rated pass rushers in the SEC this season, is poised for a big game, boasting a 16% pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks.
3. Win Third-Down Conversions
The Cats are currently converting only 34% of their third downs, ranking last in the SEC. To win this weekend, they need to control the ball and gain 4-5 yards on first down to create manageable second and third downs. At the start of the season, Stoops’ offense was disciplined, but in the last three weeks, they’ve struggled, averaging over 80 yards in penalties. The Cats must maintain discipline and convert on third downs to secure a victory.
4. Wide Receivers Must Step Up
Kentucky’s wide receivers have been decent but not exceptional this season. With both starting running backs sidelined, Dane Key, Barion Brown, and DeMarcus Maclin need to rise to the occasion. To be fair to Maclin, he hasn’t had the opportunities he deserves thus far. He proved to be a deep threat at North Texas, and that potential has yet to be fully utilized in Kentucky’s new offense. For Kentucky to win, at least one of these receivers needs to surpass 100 yards receiving.
5. Offensive Line Needs to Be Strong
Kentucky will also be without Gerald Mincey, a consistent starter this season. With the top running backs out, it’s crucial for the offensive line to step up. Dylan Ray or Malachi Wood is expected to fill in for Mincey, and I believe the drop-off won’t be significant. Ray has ample playing time and often grades out as one of the best offensive linemen. I’m excited to see him start and showcase how he’s developed since last season.
To be candid, this game will hinge on the performance of the offensive line and the backup running backs. If both units excel, I believe Kentucky will win. However, if Wilcox struggles with his shoe and Ray falters, Kentucky may face defeat.
In summary, I expect Kentucky to perform well with Wilcox rushing for over 80 yards and making an impact against the Tigers. I predict a close win for Kentucky.
My Prediction: Kentucky 28, Auburn 27