What does Kentucky need to do to leave The Swamp with a big win?
The Kentucky Wildcats are looking to bounce back this weekend as they head to The Swamp to face the Florida Gators. Luckily, Kentucky has performed well on the road in recent seasons, and this week, it will face a backup quarterback for the Gators.
The Cats opened as 2.5-point underdogs, but the line has since shifted to Kentucky being a 1.5-point favorite. This significant movement in the line suggests a strong confidence in Kentucky, which is unusual for such a quick change.
For Kentucky to secure a crucial SEC win in The Swamp, here are the five keys to victory.
1. Put Pressure on the Backup QB
DJ Lagway is no slouch. He is the 2023 National Gatorade Player of the Year and High School Heisman Award winner. After coming into the game last week, he completed 9-of-17 passes for 98 yards with one touchdown and one interception. One thing that stood out in the film is that he does not handle pressure well. When the Vols were able to make Lagway uncomfortable, he appeared stressed and made rushed throws, resulting in a turnover. For Kentucky, the most crucial factor will be maintaining rushing lanes and pressuring Lagway. If the Kentucky defense plays as well as it did against Ole Miss or Ohio, it will control the game and secure the win.
2. Win Special Teams
You may wonder why this is in all caps. Last week, aside from penalties, this was the main reason Kentucky lost. A bad snap and a poor hold had a significant impact on the game. While it was only six points, it gave Vandy considerable momentum. The problem for the past two weeks has not been kicking or punting. It has been about executing clean snaps, holds, and kicks. Lastly, it’s essential to avoid unnecessary penalties.
3. Open Up the Offense
Brock Vandagriff has proven he is at his best when he can run the ball, utilize play-action opportunities, and make downfield throws. The hope this week is that Chip Traynum, the starting running back transfer from Ohio State, will be healthy enough to finally make his debut. If that happens, it will open up Kentucky’s offense and make it truly multi-dimensional. DSK has shown to be a solid number two back, but having Chip back will allow the offense—and Vandagriff—to take more shots and put up more points.
4. Win the Turnover Battle
Kentucky has been solid this season, sitting at +1 in the turnover battle, which ranks them 8th in the SEC. Winning in The Swamp is never easy, so the key will be applying pressure to cause an interception or two and recovering a fumble. Florida has demonstrated turnover issues, ranking 103rd in FBS, with a -0.6 turnover margin so far this season. If the Cats can force the Gators into mistakes, it is an important edge.
5. Score Touchdowns in the Red Zone
The Cats have struggled in the red zone this season, ranking 98th in the country for touchdowns. They have scored a touchdown on only 55.8% of their red zone trips. Kentucky’s kicker, Alex Raynor, has bailed the offense out with his leg, but that won’t win the game this weekend. For Kentucky to be successful, it must convert touchdowns when it enters the red zone.
This is going to be an exciting game, and I fully expect Kentucky to bounce back, as it always does. The Cats typically perform well after a disappointing loss; after dropping a game to South Carolina, they nearly upset Georgia the following week. I have a strong feeling that Kentucky will win this game decisively, potentially marking the end of Billy Napier’s time in Gainesville.
My Prediction: Kentucky 34, Florida 14