Can Kentucky stop the high-powered Ole Miss offense and upset the Rebels?
The Kentucky Wildcats are hitting the road for their first away game of the year against the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford, Mississippi.
The Grove should be electric with the Cats coming to town and Ole Miss ranked as a top-10 team. As always, Ole Miss boasts an explosive offense this year, although its defense is a bit shaky.
The key question is: What can Kentucky do to pull off the shocking upset over the Rebels in Oxford?
Let’s explore the five keys to victory for the Cats.
1. Control the Clock
When facing an explosive offense, managing the clock by running the ball and using the play clock effectively is essential. For the Cats to have a chance in this game, they need to limit Ole Miss to as few possessions as possible and win the time of possession battle. Ole Miss currently has the third-best offense in the country, averaging over 42 points and 478 yards per game. Kentucky must run the ball well and avoid turnovers to stay competitive.
2. Contain Explosive Plays
The Rebels excel at hitting big plays with over 100 plays for 10-plus yards this season. Under Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss consistently ranks among the top five offensive teams, particularly in explosive plays. Kentucky was effective at containing these plays in a three-point loss at Ole Miss in 2022. For the Cats to succeed this week, they must keep everything in front of them and prevent any major explosive plays.
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3. Win the Special Teams Battle
While I might not agree with it, Wilson Berry is once again the starting punter. Although he is a solid punter, to beat Ole Miss, Kentucky needs to flip the field effectively. So far this season, Berry is averaging only 41 yards per punt, while backup Aidan Laros had a 58-yard punt last week and was an FCS All-American last season. I’m not sure why Laros isn’t getting more opportunities, but Kentucky will struggle if it continues to give Ole Miss a favorable field position. Additionally, the Wildcats should utilize their top-five kicker and take the points when they can.
4. Limit Penalties
Kentucky has repeatedly hurt themselves with penalties this season, ranking among the worst in the SEC. It is giving up over 80 yards per game in penalties. To win, the Cats need to play fundamentally sound football and minimize mistakes. They must focus on watching the ball, avoiding holds, and maintaining clean play.
5. Protect Brock Vandagriff
Vandagriff has shown some promise, but his performance has been hampered by the offensive line’s inability to provide sufficient protection. When he has more than 2.5 seconds to throw, he completes over 75% of his passes; when it’s less, that percentage drops below 50%. Ole Miss’s defense is not what it once was, but they still boast the No. 1 scoring defense in the country, allowing only 5.5 points per game and having yet to allow a touchdown this season. Kentucky won’t stand a chance if it can’t score. If Vandagriff doesn’t have the time he needs, it could be a long game. After all, you can only run the ball so much.
All in all, I expect Kentucky to play Ole Miss really well and keep this one really close. I think Vandagriff has a bit of a coming-out party and throws for 200-plus yards. This Kentucky defense is going to stand tall and hold Ole Miss to less than 28 points in another close defeat to Lane Kiffin and the Rebels.
My prediction: Ole Miss 27, Kentucky 24