What does Kentucky need to do to avoid an upset over Vandy?
We’re back!
The Kentucky Wildcats return from a well-timed off week ready to face off against the Vanderbilt Commodores, who are coming off a massive win over then-No. 1 Alabama.
Last week, Vandy opened as a 24-point underdog at home against Bama, and it delivered a stunning performance, scoring 40 points against a strong Tide defense.
According to FanDuel, Kentucky is currently a 13.5-point favorite at home. The Cats must focus on these five key areas to avoid an upset and a third SEC defeat.
1. Contain Diego Pavia
Pavia is having an incredible year and shined brightly against Alabama, throwing for 280 yards and rushing for nearly 60. He makes big plays when forced out of the pocket and has a knack for evading defenders. Standing only 5-foot-11 but weighing 210 pounds, he uses his size and agility effectively. Kentucky has done well against mobile quarterbacks recently, but it will be crucial to contain Pavia this weekend at Kroger Field.
2. Control the Line of Scrimmage
Typically, Vanderbilt struggles to control the line of scrimmage, but this year is different. The Commodores are averaging 170 rushing yards behind Pavia and star running back Sedrick Alexander, who gained 64 yards against Alabama’s formidable defense. Last week, Vandy’s offensive line did not allow a single sack against a Tide defensive line that likely features 2-3 future NFL Draft picks. Kentucky has been improving its line play since the South Carolina game, but a poor performance this week could lead to another disappointing outcome.
3. Avoid Penalties
Alabama’s defeat to Vanderbilt last week was partly due to its own mistakes, including penalties. Bama committed six penalties for 57 yards with two costly penalties totaling 30 yards, allowing Vandy to pull ahead 20-7. Kentucky has improved in this area but is still averaging over eight penalties per game for more than 60 yards. To secure a win this weekend, it must play a clean game and avoid costly penalties.
4. Brock Vandagriff
Kentucky’s success will depend largely on Vandagriff’s performance this weekend. While Vandy scored a pick-six last week, it stemmed from a poor throw and a good defensive play. Vandagriff has shown improvement in his last two games, and I expect him to excel again this week. Receiver Dane Key has accumulated 250 yards over the past two games and was impressive against Vandy last season, catching four passes and scoring a touchdown. I predict Vandagriff will throw for over 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns in this matchup.
5. Run the Ball Well
Vanderbilt has struggled with rush defense this season, allowing nearly 115 yards per game and almost four yards per carry. Meanwhile, Kentucky has averaged only 151 rushing yards per game this season. For Vandagriff to have a standout performance, Kentucky must establish a strong ground game. I expect running back DSK to have a big game, contributing to an overall offensive effort that surpasses 400 yards.
In summary, when you’re better than your opponent, you must play like it. By effectively passing the ball and maximizing possessions, along with owning the line of scrimmage, containing Pavia, and establishing a strong rushing attack, Kentucky should win this game comfortably. I believe Kentucky will emerge victorious in this matchup.
My Prediction: Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 14