Predicting how the Cats will fare in Mark Pope’s first season.
The Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball program tips off the regular season in less than two weeks. As everyone prepares for the new season, we have gone through and predicted each regular-season game for the Wildcats.
When I started, I picked Kentucky to have an overall record of 20-11. After looking deeper at each opponent, I have them finishing slightly better with a 21-10 overall record and an 11-7 mark in SEC play.
For reference, KenPom has them finishing 18-13 as the 42nd-best team. Double-digit losses may sound bad, but the SEC is as deep as it has been since the 1990s and could have 10-11 teams in the NCAA Tournament.
With each game, the opponent’s KenPom ranking is in parentheses. Important matchups are in bold, with some short thoughts below them.
Let’s take a look at the schedule.
Vs [199] Wright State – W (1-0)
Kenpom Projection: W, 85-68
The beginning of the Mark Pope era. While there are uncertainties with this Kentucky roster, the Wildcats have enough talent to cruise through their first two games.
Vs [246] Bucknell – W (2-0)
Kenpom Projection: W, 81-62
Vs [2] Duke – L (2-1)
Kenpom Projection: L, 77-69
Mark Pope will have his first real test as Kentucky matches up with a Final Four contender in the second week of the regular season. The Blue Devils will have more blue-chip talent with seven players ranked in ESPN’s top 100 draft prospects, while Kentucky will have more experience. That said, Kentucky’s ‘experience’ is not experienced playing together, all transferring in. For that reason, I expect Duke to win with the talent advantage, but a good showing could fuel the enthusiasm for the season.
Vs [241] Lipscomb – W (3-1)
Kenpom Projection: W, 83-69
Vs [326] Jackson State – W (4-1)
Kenpom Projection: W, 85-61
Vs [132] Western Kentucky – W (5-1)
Kenpom Projection: W, 82-69
Vs [187] Georgia State – W (6-1)
Kenpom Projection: W, 83-66
At [24] Clemson – L (6-2)
Kenpom Projection: L, 77-71
Following a string of home games, Kentucky will travel to Clemson for their first road test of the season for the SEC-ACC challenge. The Tigers are coming off their first Elite Eight appearance since 1980 and return three players who started 17 or more games. In the portal, head coach Brad Brownell prioritized improving the team’s defense. Given the road environment and that expected improved defense, I think the Cats have a poor shooting night and lose despite a good effort.
At [9] Gonzaga – L (6-3)
Kenpom Projection: L, 82-75
Ranked sixth in the AP poll, Gonzaga will be the highest-ranked team Kentucky will play in the non-conference schedule. Coming off their ninth straight Sweet Sixteen appearance and returning all but one player from their main rotation, it’s easy to see why they are looked at so highly. With the returning experience and it being a West Coast road trip, I am taking the Zags to win this one.
Vs [217] Colgate – W (7-3)
Kenpom Projection: W, 82-65
Vs [64] Louisville – W (8-3)
Kenpom Projection: W, 79-74
Mark Pope vs. Pat Kelsey: The battle of the corny coaches and each coach’s first coaching appearance in the Kentucky-Louisville rivalry. As the series returns to Rupp Arena, Kentucky will have the better roster, and with renewed energy, I expect the Cats to win their third straight over the Cards.
Vs [31] Ohio State – W (9-3)
Kenpom Projection: L, 75-74
The Cats will face a talented Buckeye team in this year’s CBS Sports Classic, including former big man Aaron Bradshaw now suiting up against Kentucky. Will be a tough game, but the Cats manage to pick up a big neutral-court victory.
Vs [243] Brown – W (10-3)
Kenpom Projection: W, 84-65
Vs [28] Florida – L (10-4)
Kenpom Projection: W, 78-76
The SEC is arguably the best conference in college basketball this season and is looking as deep as it did in the 1990s. With only four players who played in power conferences last year, it will take some time for this Kentucky roster to get accustomed to the league’s physicality and athleticism. First will be Florida, which has two athletic bigs, rebounds well, and forces players to score in isolation. All three are a recipe for a loss to open SEC play.
At [67] Georgia – W (11-4)
Kenpom Projection: L, 74-73
At [32] Mississippi St – L (11-5)
Kenpom Projection: L, 76-71
Under Chris Jans, Mississippi State’s staple has been its defense, and this season will be no different. They force teams away from the rim and have enough length to get out on shooters. Returning Josh Hubbard and bringing in efficient scorers Kanye Clary and Claudell Harris Jr. via the portal, the Bulldogs should be improved on the offensive end. I think Kentucky will drop this one when facing a stout defense and electric guard on the road.
Vs [16] Texas A&M – W (12-5)
Kenpom Projection: L, 75-74
Vs [4] Alabama – L (12-6)
Kenpom Projection: L, 83-78
Alabama is the preseason No. 2 team in both the AP and Coaches Polls. Coming off their first-ever Final Four, the Crimson Tide return four big pieces from last year’s team while adding the second-best high school/portal class in the nation. Ranked second in offensive efficiency last season, Nate Oats confronted the defensive issues by adding Cliff Omoruyi from Rutgers and five-star wing Derrion Reid. Kentucky loses the first round of this shootout.
At [96] Vanderbilt – W (13-6)
Kenpom Projection: W, 77-75
At [13] Tennessee – W (14-6)
Kenpom Projection: L, 74-72
Defense and physicality have defined Tennessee in recent seasons. While They will be very good on that end this season, the offense is a concern. Losing Dalton Knecht, the hope is that Chaz Lanier can have a similar effect, but Lamont Butler will shut him down and help the Cats get a big win on the road.
Vs [25] Arkansas – W (15-6)
Kenpom Projection: W, 76-75
The most anticipated game on the schedule is when John Calipari returns to Rupp Arena for the first time as the head coach of Arkansas. Former Cats DJ Wagner and Adou Thiero are breakout candidates. That said, this team is not full of the ELITE talent Calipari is used to having. Kentucky has the better X and O staff, and a memorable Rupp atmosphere will help the Cats win.
At [47] Ole Miss – L (15-7)
Kenpom Projection: L, 77-75
Vs [65] South Carolina – W (16-7)
Kenpom Projection: W, 73-68
Vs [13] Tennessee – L (16-8)
Kenpom Projection: L, 74-72
In recent years, Tennessee and Kentucky have swapped games. Based on that trend, and it being difficult to beat such a good defense twice in a row, I think the Cats lose in a close one in Rupp.
At [18] Texas – L (16-9)
Kenpom Projection: L, 77-71
There is a lot of uncertainty for Texas this season. A new conference and almost an entirely new team. On paper, the Longhorns are expected to have a great defense, but has Rodney Terry fixed the offensive issues from last year’s team? Bringing in a lot of high-level scorers from the portal, I think they will get some big buckets down the stretch and beat Kentucky at home.
Vs [96] Vanderbilt – W (17-9)
Kenpom Projection: W, 81-72
At [4] Alabama – L (17-10)
Kenpom Projection: L, 86-75
Alabama’s offense will be one of the best in college basketball. However, the reliance on 3-point shooting leaves the Tide vulnerable to poor shooting performances. So does Kentucky’s. Alabama sweeps the season series.
At [40] Oklahoma – W (18-10)
Kenpom Projection: L, 74-70
Vs [3] Auburn – W (19-10)
Kenpom Projection: L, 78-74
KD Johnson is finally out of college basketball, but Auburn returns six players from last year’s rotation, with the hope that Furman transfer JP Pegues can answer their problems at point guard. That said, they likely won’t be as good defensively, and they often gamble on that side of the ball. With Mark Pope’s passing and shooting system, I like Kentucky in this one.
Vs [51] LSU – W (20-9)
Kenpom Projection: W, 78-74
At [53] Missouri – W (21-9)
Kenpom Projection: L, 76-73
Final Record Prediction: 21-10, 11-7 SEC
KenPom Prediction: 18-13, 8-10 SEC
Curious about Kentucky’s gambling odds this upcoming season? FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the Cats with the seventh-best odds to win the SEC and tied for the 12th-best odds to win the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
SEC Regular Season Winner Odds
- Alabama +220
- Auburn +220
- Tennessee +380
- Arkansas +1500
- Texas +1700
- Texas A&M +1800
- Kentucky +2100
- Florida +2700
- Mississippi State +2700
- Ole Miss +3200
- Georgia +7500
- Oklahoma +7500
- South Carolina +7500
- Missouri +11000
- LSU +12000
- Vanderbilt +21000
2025 NCAA Tournament Winner Odds
- Duke +950
- Houston +1000
- Kansas +1000
- Connecticut +1100
- Alabama +1400
- Iowa State +1600
- Auburn +2000
- Gonzaga +2000
- Arizona +2500
- North Carolina +2500
- Baylor +3000
- Creighton +4000
- Arkansas +4000
- Tennessee +4000
- Texas Tech +4000
- Purdue +4000
- St. John’s +4000
- Kentucky +4000
- Rutgers +5000
- Michigan +5000
- Cincinnati +5000
- Indiana +5000
- Ohio State +6000
- Marquette +6000
- BYU +6000
- Florida +6000
- Michigan State +6000
- Texas +6000
How do you see the Wildcats faring in Mark Pope’s first season? Let us know in the comments section!
And Go CATS!!!