Kentucky needs a win to salvage the season.
Going into the season, many believed the Kentucky Wildcats had one of the best rosters of the Mark Stoops era.
Fast-forward to Week 9, and the Cats are just 3-4 overall, 1-4 in the SEC, and 0-3 in conference home games.
Things aren’t trending in the right direction, but the Wildcats host an Auburn Tigers squad that is 2-5 and yet to win a conference game. Led by second-year head coach Hugh Freeze, the Tigers have had one of their worst seasons in the last two decades, with a fanbase beyond frustrated, so it’s somewhat similar to what Kentucky is going through.
This game is big for both programs, as it pits two of the bottom three teams in the SEC standings against each other. Specifically, Kentucky must win this game to qualify for bowl eligibility.
In the bigger picture, this game feels like a potential turning point in this season and potentially the Mark Stoops era. While he won’t get fired, he could lose even more of the fanbase and NIL support.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Turnover Battle
Despite being 0-4 in the SEC, analytically, Auburn hasn’t been a bad football team. They just turn the ball over too much, giving their opponents extra possessions. This is why they lost against California and Arkansas, turning the ball over five times in each of those games. On the season, they are tied for the second-worst turnover margin in all of college football at -10.
On the other hand, Kentucky held a positive turnover margin until throwing three interceptions against Florida last week, and it is now sitting at -1. That margin could have been higher if the Wildcats had recovered any of the five fumbles they forced to start the season.
Kentucky’s defense has led the way this season. If they can help keep the Auburn offense from scoring and give the offense more opportunities to score, that would bode well for the Cats’ chances on Saturday.
Pass Defense
Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White has often taken a “bend, don’t break” approach. It was bent and broken against Florida. Seven competitions, 259 yards, an average of 37 yards per completion — that is what Kentucky allowed Florida freshman QB DJ Lagway. While pass defense was a major issue last season, it has been much better this season. That was until they faced the Gators.
Now ranked outside the top 100 in 20-plus yard pass plays allowed (25), the Kentucky secondary will need to be on high alert going up against explosive receivers like KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Cam Coleman.
Red Zone Efficiency
One thing Kentucky and Auburn have in common is an inefficiency in scoring in the red zone. Tied at 99th in the country, each team scores a touchdown just 55 percent of the time in the red zone. Even worse for Auburn, only 80 percent of the time do they score any points (including FGs) in the red zone, compared to Kentucky’s 85 percent.
In back-to-back weeks, the Wildcats have scored ZERO points from the 1-yard line. In those two weeks, they have also allowed their opponents to go 9/9 from the red zone, including five touchdowns.
In a game expected to be close, with flawed offenses, it could come down to who is more efficient with their opportunities.
Kentucky Wildcats (3-4) vs. Auburn Tigers (2-5)
Game Time: 7:45 PM ET on October 26th
Location: Kroger Field in Lexington, KY
TV Channel: SEC Network
Announcers: TBA
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jeff Piecoro have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Network.
Satellite Radio: XM Channel 203, Sirius Channel 98, Internet Channel 966
Replay: ESPN+ and SEC Network (check local listings).
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 42.5. ESPN has the Wildcats as an underdog with just a 51.4% chance of victory.
Predictions: TeamRankings and DRatings.com have Kentucky winning 22-19 and 24-21, respectively. OddsShark projects a 33-23 win for Auburn. It’s hard to be positive with Kentucky’s play the last two weeks, and I am not going to be. You can’t beat teams in the SEC without scoring the ball. I pick Auburn to win, 20-17.
How do you see this one playing out? Send us your predictions!