Can the Wildcats make it four straight against Florida?
A “comedy of errors’ is what Mark Stoops called the Kentucky Wildcats’ performance against Vanderbilt. After a team meeting based on accountability, the Wildcats will look to bounce back against Florida this week as they travel to Gainesville.
The Gators haven’t had a great first half of the season either, also sitting at 3-3 with head coach Billy Napier on the hot seat. However, all three of their losses have come against top-15 ranked opponents (Miami, Texas A&M, and Tennessee), and their three wins have all come by double-digits.
Kentucky has won three straight against Florida, including two of the last three in the series played in Gainesville. However, the Wildcats have struggled this season against teams they have found themselves consistently beating, losing to both South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
Which version of the Wildcats will show up on Saturday, the undisciplined or the “us against the world” version? Time will tell. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Can Kentucky Score More Than Two Touchdowns?
Kentucky has not scored two touchdowns on an SEC opponent since November of last season. If you look at their losses, they could have beaten Georgia and Vanderbilt with just one more score.
A big reason for this has been the inconsistency of the passing offense, which ranks 122nd in the country in offensive success. Meanwhile, the Kentucky rushing offense ranks fifth in offensive success.
Fortunately, this bolds well for the Cats as Florida has struggled against the run for much of the season. While they have gotten better at limiting explosive plays, the Gators are still allowing opponents to rush for more than 167 yards per game, including allowing two SEC opponents to rush for more than 240 yards.
Florida has scored at least two touchdowns in every game this season (which, to be fair, isn’t that tall of a bar). In a game where you have to score more than the other team, the Wildcats will tremendously help their chances of winning by scoring more than two touchdowns.
Red-Zone Efficiency
One of the most frustrating moments of Kentucky’s loss against Vanderbilt was when the Wildcats failed to put any points on the board from under the one-yard line. Yet that was not specific to the Vanderbilt game, as the Wildcats have struggled in the Red Zone this season.
Yes, Kentucky has a respectable 88.9 percent scoring percentage in the red zone. However, a trip to the red zone ends in a touchdown just over 55 percent of the time, 98th in the country and the worst rate in the SEC. In comparison, the Gators have a worse scoring percentage (80%) yet a higher touchdown percentage at 68 percent.
In what is expected to be a close game, Kentucky needs to capitalize on every red zone opportunity.
Discipline
Twelve penalties for 105 yards. That was Kentucky’s final tally last weekend against Vanderbilt. Understandably one of the primary talking points of the coaching staff this week has been discipline.
Florida has a turnover margin of -3, the second worst in the SEC, and less than 39 percent third-down conversion rate, one of the lowest marks nationally. The one thing Kentucky cannot afford to do is give them extra opportunities and possessions.
On the road, in a tough environment, players have to keep their cool and play sound, fundamental football.
Kentucky Wildcats (3-3) vs. Florida Gators (3-3)
Game Time: 7:45 PM ET on October 19th
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
TV Channel: SEC Network
Announcers: Dave Neal, Aaron Murray, Marilyn Payne
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jeff Piecoro have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Network.
Satellite Radio: XM Channel 203, Sirius Channel 98, Internet Channel 966
Replay: ESPN+ and SEC Network (check local listings).
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 42.5. ESPN has the Wildcats as an underdog with just a 59.7% chance of victory.
Predictions: TeamRankings and DRatings.com have Kentucky winning narrowly, by scores of 23-21 and 23-20, respectively. OddsShark projects a 34-24 win for Kentucky. While their play against Vanderbilt gives reason to doubt, I believe they come prepared to the Swamp and beat Florida 24-17.
How do you see this one playing out? Send us your predictions!