Kentucky looks to pick up just its third true road win of the season.
Following a tough road loss to Alabama, the Kentucky Wildcats look to bounce back as they travel to Norman to take on the Oklahoma Sooners.
The Sooners started the season 13-0, going undefeated in their non-conference slate, including wins over Arizona, Michigan, and Louisville. However, they’re 4-10 in SEC play, putting them firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. A win over a top-20 Kentucky team would certainly bolster their resume following a huge home win over Mississippi State, who Kentucky is battling for SEC Tournament seed positioning.
ESPN currently gives the Sooners a 55% chance of making the Big Dance.
Led by fourth-year head coach Porter Moser, he is likely coaching for his job, as he has yet to make an NCAA Tournament in Norman.
The Wildcats will be taking on a desperate team with a desperate coach on the road while likely shorthanded. That’s no easy task.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Dominate Rebounding
Averaging less than 33 rebounds per game, Oklahoma is the worst rebounding team in the SEC. For comparison, Kentucky averages more than 39 rebounds per game.
Head coach Porter Moser explains that the Sooners struggle with rebounding “in the trenches,” which has led to some very lopsided rebound battles. The most notable coming against Texas A&M just a few weeks ago, losing the rebounding battle 44-19. In that game, the Aggies had more offensive rebounds than Oklahoma had total rebounds.
There is no big size difference. It simply comes down to who wants the ball more. Kentucky needs to crash the boards hard.
Fix the Turnovers
What Oklahoma lacks in rebounding, they try to make up for on the defensive end. While not a great defensive team overall, they do turn their opponents over 13 times per game, with nearly eight steals per game.
That defensive havoc has given a lot of teams trouble. Missouri, one of the most efficient offenses in the country, recently turned the ball over 15 times to the Sooners.
Without a veteran point guard available, Kentucky has turned the ball over 12 or more times in three straight games. They need to try to keep that number under 10 against Oklahoma.
Pound the Paint
Oklahoma defends the 3 very well, ranking in the top 20 in that category, forcing teams into shooting less than 30% from deep. However, they are not great at defending inside, allowing teams to shoot nearly 55% on two-point shots.
Amari Williams has been playing at an elite level, averaging 15 points on 65 percent shooting inside. He is primed to continue that against the Sooners, but Otega Oweh and Andrew Carr need to have big games as well.
If they are taking averaging in the paint, that should open up opportunities from 3. Carr could even slip out to the corner like he did several times against Alabama.
Opposing Players to Watch
F Jalon Moore 6-7, 215 lbs
- 17.0 PPG (8th in SEC)
- 5.7 RPG
- 38.2% 3P
G Jeremiah Fears 6-4, 182 lbs
- 15.9 PPG
- 4.0 APG (8th in SEC)
- 4.0 RPG
G Duke Miles 6-2, 188 lbs
- 10.1 PPG
- 2.1 APG
- 43.8% 3P
Kentucky Basketball vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Time: 9 PM ET on February 26th, 2025
Location: Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Oklahoma
TV Channel: SEC Network
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds, so check back Tuesday for an official spread. BartTorvik gives the Cats a 62% chance at Victory. ESPN is at 60.8%, followed by KenPom at 57%. EvanMiya is almost at a coin flip at 51.3%, which is with the expectation that Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson are not available.
Predictions: Haslametrics (83-78) and BartTorvik (85-81) are the models that give Kentucky a two-possession win. KenPom (84-82) and EvanMiya (80-79) pick Kentucky a single bucket. I think the Cats pull out a close one against a desperate Oklahoma team, 84-80.
Send us your Kentucky vs. Oklahoma score predictions in the comments section!
Go CATS!