The Wildcats look to redeem themselves against a top-25 Ole Miss team.
After a tough home loss to Arkansas, Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats have now turned their focus to the Ole Miss Rebels.
Now ranked 25th in the AP Poll and reaching as high as 16th earlier this year, the Rebels are having one of their best seasons in recent memory. In his second season as head coach, Chris Beard is looking to lead the Rebels to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.
While Kentucky has lost three of their last four games, Ole Miss is encountering some struggles as well, losing four of their last five, but all to ranked teams.
Midway through SEC play, a win could help each team steady the ship. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Take Care of the Ball
Ole Miss is ranked 12th in defensive efficiency nationally and really excels at forcing turnovers. On the season, the Rebels have forced nearly 16 turnovers per game. That number hasn’t dropped much in SEC play, forcing more than 14 turnovers per game.
Of late, Kentucky has not been the best at limiting turnovers, recording 13 or more in five of their last seven contests. Not being able to force turnovers, they have had a negative turnover margin in six straight.
It’s clear that Kentucky has to beat teams with their offense. That becomes more difficult to do with each turnover.
Dominate the Boards, Crash Offensive Glass
Ole Miss’ biggest weakness is on the boards, largely due to their lack of size. Of the players that play 5+ minutes per game, the Rebel’s tallest player is 6-foot-8 Jaemyn Brakefield.
Amari Williams has been on a tear of late, with three double-doubles in the last four games, and double-digit rebounds in five of the last six.
With the offense running through him as Lamont Butler continues to be sidelined, I expect Williams to have another big-time performance. That said, his teammates need to consistently fight on the boards.
Perimeter Defense
Kentucky’s biggest letdown against Arkansas was their perimeter defense. For 20 minutes in the second half, the Razorback backcourt got whatever they wanted. For perspective, Johnell Davis shot 50% from the field while averaging less than 38% from the field on the season.
Ole Miss has a talented backcourt of their own that is responsible for most of their offensive production. Not having Butler hurts Kentucky’s perimeter defense, but with him out for a couple of weeks, they still have to find a way.
Mark Pope discussed wanting to take more risks. Could we see some zone on Tuesday night?
Opposing Players to Watch
G Sean Pedulla 6-1, 195 lbs
- 15.2 PPG
- 3.6 APG
- 40.3% 3P
G Jaylen Murray 5-11, 165 lbs
- 10.9 PPG
- 3.7 APG
- 40.7% 3P
F Jaemyn Brakefield 6-8, 225 lbs
- 10.8 PPG
- 5.0 RPG
- 47.1% FG
Kentucky Basketball vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Time: 7:00 PM ET on February 4th
Location: The Sandy and John Black Pavilion in Oxford, Mississippi
TV Channel: ESPN
Announcers: Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, and Molly McGrath
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog with an over/under of 155.5 points. ESPN gives Kentucky a 41.6% chance of winning. BartTorvik and KenPom both give the Cats a 39% chance. EvanMiya is at 34.6%.
Predictions: The analytics are nearly deadlocked with their score predictions, all projecting Kentucky to lose and separated by just one point. EvanMiya projects a four-point loss for Kentucky, 81-77. While, BartTorvik (81-78), KenPom (80-77), and Haslametrics (80-77) all have the Rebels by three points. I chose Kentucky to lose this game at full strength before the season, and I am sticking to that. The Rebels win 78-74.
Send us your Kentucky vs. Ole Miss score predictions in the comments section!
Go CATS!