Here’s what you need to know for Wildcats vs. Rebels.
Back to .500 after a blowout win over Ohio, the Kentucky Wildcats are on the road for the first time this season to take on the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford.
Lane Kiffin, in his fifth season as head coach of the Rebels, may have the most talented roster he’s had with Ole Miss. With a solidified Heisman candidate in Jaxson Dart leading a video-game offense and multiple elite transfers on both sides of the ball, they are one of the favorites to make the College Football Playoff. Beating their first four opponents by an average of 49.5 points per game, they’re looking the part.
That said, their strength of schedule is among the worst in college football this season. Playing an FCS team and three FBS teams, their toughest opponent thus far is Wake Forest, who ranks 86th in ESPN’s power index rankings. Therefore, Kentucky will not just be their SEC opener but also a different level of opponent.
Under Mark Stoops, Kentucky is 0-3 against Ole Miss, but they have played them closer than any other opponent, with an average margin of defeat of just 2.3 points. The most recent came in 2022 after a Kentucky touchdown in the final minute was called back for illegal motion.
Since that game, Kentucky is just 12-14 overall, as things have continued to trend in the wrong direction for Mark Stoops’ program. A win over the Rebels could certainly push things back in the right direction, but there’s a reason why they’re favored by 17.5 points this week.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Elite Offense vs Elite Defense
“It feels like we’re going against the Super Bowl Rams, the Greatest Show on Turf,” Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White said on Wednesday, holding the Ole Miss offense in high regard and for good reason as they lead or are atop the nation in most statistical offensive categories:
- Points Per Game: 55.0, 1st
- Yards Per Game: 670.8, 1st
- Passing Yards Per Game: 422.8, 1st
- Yards Per Play: 8.85, 1st
- Offensive Success Rate: 55.5%, 1st
- Plays of 10+ Yards: 100, 1st
- Plays per Game: 75.8, 7th
- Rushing Yards Per Game: 248.0, 12th
Again, Ole Miss hasn’t played a defense as tough as Kentucky’s, which ranks sixth in total defense. Lane Kiffin knows that, likening the Wildcats’ defensive unit to an “NFL defense.”
It will be a battle of two strengths. For Kentucky to have a chance to win, they will have to play their best on defense. Fortunately, they have already shown they can do that, limiting a Georgia offense to just one touchdown.
Battle In the Trenches
One of Ole Miss’ biggest issues in recent seasons has been its weakness in the trenches. This offseason, they made a concerted effort to fix that.
Things look vastly improved for the defensive line. However, question marks still remain with the offensive line, in large part due to injuries. The same could be said of Kentucky this season; however, they have the advantage of being tested in the trenches by Georgia.
If Ole Miss’ offensive line meets the play of Kentucky’s defensive line, they could win this game comfortably. If the Kentucky d-line can overwhelm the Rebels and slow down their offense, it will give the Wildcat offense a shot at an upset bid.
Injuries
On Wednesday’s injury report, Ole Miss listed 26 players. In comparison, Kentucky had just seven.
That said, 14 of those Rebels are listed as “probable.” By SEC standards, that means they have a greater than 75% chance of playing. That number will likely get smaller as the report is updated leading up to Saturday’s contest.
The unit that has been hurt the most is the Ole Miss offensive line, which has just seen one of three projected starters play a snap this season. While they have many weapons on offense, if Kentucky were to have an advantage on the Ole Miss offense, it would be there.
Kentucky Wildcats (2-2) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (4-0)
Game Time: 12 PM ET
Date: September 28th, 2024
Location: Vaught Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi.
TV Channel: ABC
Announcers: Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, and Molly McGrath
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jeff Piecoro have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Network.
Satellite Radio: XM Channel 203, Sirius Channel 98, Internet Channel 966
Replay: ESPN+ and SEC Network (check local listings).
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky as a 17.5-point underdog with an over/under of 53.5. ESPN gives the Wildcats a 9.5% chance of victory.
Predictions: TeamRankings has Kentucky losing by three scores 35-18. OddsShark projects them to lose in a close contest 31-29. DRatings.com picks the Cats to lose 33-21. I’m going with the Cats to cover the spread, but ultimately lose 31-17.
How do you see this one playing out? Send us your predictions in the comments section and on Twitter!