Can the Wildcats pull an upset with everyone counting them out?
It is increasingly likely the Kentucky Wildcats will fall short of the six-win mark and not make a bowl game for the first time since 2015. That said, there are still more games to be played and potential season-shifting wins to be had.
This week, the Wildcats travel to Knoxville to take on the Tennessee Volunteers, a rival they have only defeated three times since 1985. They will try to play spoiler to the Vols’ playoff chances while also getting a win that would get Kentucky firmly back into the bowl discussion.
Tennessee is coming off a bye week and a big win over Alabama, while Kentucky has lost three straight to Vanderbilt, Florida, and Auburn.
Here’s what to watch for in Kentucky vs. Tennessee.
Bad Offense vs. Good Defense
Kentucky has not scored more than 20 points in an SEC game all season. It’s hard seeing them do that against a unit that has not allowed more than 19 points this season. If they are going to, it’s likely going to have to come through the air, as the Vols rank 85th in passing success rate allowed.
That said, Kentucky has the worst passing offense in the SEC and the 10th worst in the country. To put it in perspective better, the Wildcats have scored just three passing touchdowns against the SEC competition.
Meanwhile, the Volunteers have allowed four passing touchdowns all season.
Run Defense
Tennessee still plays an up-tempo spread offense, but it has a slightly different look this season. Rather than the pass-heavy offense the Volunteers ran under Hendon Hooker, this year’s team is a run-first offense, running the ball 62.3 percent of the time (ranks 11th nationally). This is due to the inaccuracy of quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who can hurt teams with his legs.
Leading the rushing attack is Dylan Sampson, who ranks top 15 nationally in rushing yards (838) and attempts (144) and third in rushing touchdowns (17). The latter is as many touchdowns as Kentucky has scored in total this season.
Originally thought to be a strength for Kentucky, the rushing defense is among the bottom five in the conference. They just allowed Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter to rush for 278 yards last week, the most by any FBS player this season and a Kroger Field record.
Is there any fight left?
With a 3-5 overall record and a 1-5 mark in the SEC, Kentucky’s prospects are bleak. They are a big underdog on Saturday, so can Mark Stoops get his team up to fight? He has been able to do it in the past, but this situation is unlike any he has been in during his time at Kentucky.
If he is unable, the game could quickly get out of hand, turning even more of the fanbase and making Mark Stoops’ seat even more uncomfortable.
Kentucky Wildcats (3-5) at No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers
Game Time: 7:45 PM ET on November 2nd
Location: Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN
TV Channel: SEC Network
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jeff Piecoro have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Network.
Satellite Radio: XM Channel 203, Sirius Channel 98, Internet Channel 966
Replay: ESPN+ and SEC Network (check local listings).
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky as a 16.5-point underdog with an over/under of 45.5. ESPN gives the Wildcats just a 51.4% chance of victory.
Predictions: TeamRankings and OddsShark have Kentucky losing 31-14 and 34-17, respectively. DRatings.com has the Cats falling by a 32-13 score. It’s highly unlikely Kentucky will be bowl-eligible, and after losing three straight, it’s even harder to see them beating the Vols in Knoxville. I’m picking Tennessee to win 31-13.
How do you see this one playing out? Send us your predictions in the comments section!