Can the Cats take down the Dores after their historical upset? Here’s how to watch and follow this one, with predictions.
When looking at the Kentucky Wildcats football schedule, it’s been easy to view the Vanderbilt Commodores as a win. After all, the Cats have won seven of the last eight meetings.
This year, that is not the case.
The Commodores opened the season with a big win over Virginia Tech. They have since lost at Georgia State, but they took a top-10-ranked Missouri Tigers team to the wire and would have won if not for a missed field goal at the end of regulation.
Then last week, the Dores pulled off one of the biggest SEC upsets of all time, beating the Alabama Crimson Tide 40-35.
Following the upset, Mark Stoops no longer had to search for extra motivation for his players. If Vanderbilt can beat Alabama, they are capable of beating anyone. Coming off a bye week, the Wildcats should be rested and prepared for Saturday. If they want to win eight games, this is a must-win.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Disciplined Defense
Vanderbilt has one of the most unique offenses in the country. Bringing in former New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill and offensive coordinator Tim Beck, as well as quarterback Diego Pavia, the Commodores have a run-heavy defense that uses a lot of triple-option looks. This allows them to create misdirection for opposing defenses and, at times, catch off guard for big pass plays.
Pavia is also playing at a Heisman-like level for the Dores and may be the best one Kentucky faces this season if he keeps up his current pace.
Kentucky’s defensive unit is one of the best in the country. They are ranked fifth in the country in total defense and have held Georgia and Ole Miss to season lows in points.
However, this will be a different test, and defensive coordinator Brad White knows that. “They stress you in a lot of different areas,” White said on Wednesday.
To combat that, it starts with playing fundamentally sound and tackling well.
Capitalize on Offense
As good as the Dores have been on offense, they have been pretty bad on defense. Giving up an average of 32 points per game, Vandy has arguably the worst defense in the SEC.
On the other hand, the Kentucky offense has looked better with each game, specifically the play of the offensive line and the passing attack. Fortunately, this is where Vanderbilt is the weakest, giving up 231.6 passing yards per contest and nearly 12 yards per completion.
With Brock Vandragriff growing more comfortable and Dane Key and Barion Brown getting more involved, this could be a big passing game for the Wildcats.
Come Prepared
Upsets typically happen when the favored team comes into the game ill-prepared. As was the case with Alabama, who allowed Vanderbilt to go up 13-0 before the halfway mark of the first quarter and gave them “beer confidence” for the remainder of the game.
That is not specific to the Alabama game, though, as the Commodores had a 17-0 lead over Virginia Tech and a 7-0 lead over Missouri. Those starts were a big reason for each of the games being unexpectedly competitive and for pulling off the upset in the former.
The Wildcats cannot come out flat after the bye week. With a night kickoff, the environment at Kroger Field will be to Kentucky’s advantage. Two weeks removed from a big win over Ole Miss, the players should want to be ready to start a winning streak over the next couple of weeks.
Kentucky Wildcats (3-2) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (3-2)
Game Time: 7:45 PM ET on October 12th
Location: Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky
TV Channel: SEC Network
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jeff Piecoro have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Network.
Satellite Radio: XM Channel 203, Sirius Channel 98, Internet Channel 966
Replay: ESPN+ and SEC Network (check local listings).
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5. ESPN gives the Wildcats a 68.5% chance of victory.
Predictions: TeamRankings has Kentucky winning 30-16. OddsShark projects the Cats to win 35-24. DRatings.com picks the Cats to win 29-19. I’m going with a 27-17 victory, Kentucky!
How do you see this one playing out? Send us your predictions!