The Wildcats look to stay afloat as SEC play hits the home stretch.
Following a disappointing loss on the road to Texas, the Kentucky Wildcats return to Rupp Arena for a rematch against the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Looking to avenge a loss to Vanderbilt in Nashville, the Wildcats need to win this one or they are in danger of falling out of the top 10 in the SEC standings. That could mean a Wednesday game in the SEC Tournament.
Vanderbilt is currently projected in the NCAA Tournament field, but as a 10 or 11 seed, they are certainly no lock. A road win over Kentucky would certainly boost their resume and give them more confidence.
That said, neither team has been playing great of late. Battling injuries, Kentucky has lost five of their last eight, sitting at .500 in SEC play. On the other side, Vanderbilt has lost four of their last five games, including a thirty-point loss to Oklahoma.
Kentucky tends to play some of their best basketball at home, while Vanderbilt is just 1-5 on the road in the SEC but nearly took down Tennessee this past Saturday.
Let’s take a look at what to watch for in this matchup.
Turnover Bug
The biggest story of the first matchup was Kentucky’s lack of ball security, turning the ball over 17 times, still a season-high. Which was a big reason why the Commodores had twelve more possessions.
While Vanderbilt is one of the best teams in the country at generating turnovers, many of Kentucky’s were unforced. That included two at the end of the game where errant passes were forced and Kentucky gave away any shot they had to win.
This time Kentucky will likely be without Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson and will have to rely on a point-guard-by-committee approach: Travis Perry, Koby Brea, Otega Oweh, and Amari Williams. Each of have shown the ability to
A -12 possession margin isn’t going to win many games. Take care of the ball.
Late-Game Execution
While Kentucky has certainly had games where they executed to near perfection at the end (i.e. Duke, Gonzaga), there have certainly been some late-game execution issues recently, including at Vanderbilt, Alabama, and at Texas on Saturday.
Again, Kentucky will likely not have a true point guard, but they still have the talent to win this game. That said, they have to execute for 40 minutes, not 36 as they did against Texas. There are no excuses for not blocking out on a free throw, or inbounding a ball directly to a defender.
3-Point Attempts
Before the season started, Mark Pope and multiple staff members talked about the goal of averaging 30+ three-point attempts per game. Now 25 games into the season, Kentucky has only done so in four games and just once in SEC play.
If there is a team that you want to shoot a lot of threes against, it is Vanderbilt who allows their opponents to shoot better than 37% from deep, one of the worst marks in the country. In SEC play, that number is even worse at 41%.
Kentucky only had 23 attempts from deep in the first game. That number needs to be higher in this rematch.
Opposing Players to Watch
G Jason Edwards
- 17.6 PPG (4th in SEC)
- 38.5% 3P (9th in SEC)
- 5.4 3PA
F Devin McGlockton
- 10.8 PPG
- 7.8 RPG (6th in SEC)
- 60.2% FG
G AJ Hoggard
- 10.5 PPG
- 4.6 APG (5th in SEC)
- 37.1% FG
Kentucky Basketball vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Time: 7 PM ET on February 19th
Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky
TV Channel: SEC Network
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds, so check back later. ESPN is the most confident in the Cats, giving them an 81.7% at victory. EvanMiya is the least confident, taking into account injuries, giving Kentucky a 69% chance at victory. KenPom (79%) and BartTorvik (76%) lie in between.
Predictions: BartTorvik (91-82) and KenPom (89-80) each have Kentucky winning nine points. Haslametrics (86-79) and EvanMiya (85-79) have the Cats by slightly lesser margins, seven and six points respectively. I’m going with an 83-77 victory, Kentucky!
Send us your Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt score predictions in the comments section!
Go CATS!