Only one coach and a couple teams in this region bother with defense at all.
After four months of winnowing, the greatest single-elimination contest is sports is set to begin. From 362 D1 basketball programs, 68 have been chosen to spend three weekends playing for the sport’s national title. Each of the four regions will battle to send one representative to the Final Four. We finish with the South.
Starting off, the South region should be on the bottom half of the bracket in my mind. This is not the case and I wish it was the biggest issue there is with this year’s bracket. A couple of the head-scratchers landed in this region, where Boise State will have to play in Dayton in the First Four, and Duke takes a lower seed than UK despite having a higher NET and KenPom ranking. The nit-picking (or NET-picking) has been done to death over the past couple days, so let’s just get into what’s happening in this region.
The best team in the region, and it’s not that close
Houston has been one of the best three teams in the nation for nearly the entire season. They have stockpiled an absurd 16 Q1 wins, and been the best or second best defense in the country depending on what computer you look at. The Cougars under Kelvin Sampson have been known as defensive monsters and this squad has been no different. They force tough shots, they force turnovers and are generally the more physical team on the floor. Their offense runs through Jamal Shead, who has hit a ton of big shots already this season, and the outside shooting of LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp. If those three options don’t work, the big guys are more than happy to grab the miss and dunk it on someone.
While UConn got about the most brutal draw a one seed can get, Houston got a comparatively easy(?) draw. Marquette is the worst two seed according to all the computers, Kentucky barely scrapes into the top 20 on KenPom and the NET ranking, and Duke *checks notes* is actually ranked higher than UK and about even with Marquette in all the aforementioned sources. The point still stands that Houston got about as good of a draw as they could ask for with the other top seeds in the region.
There are so many teams to cheer against
One person who writes on this website likes Shaka Smart, and that is not his actual opinion, but merely the position he adopted to show the rest of us how cool he is. [Ed. note: I actually do think Shaka is a great coach and am a real fan of his. Ignore the haters.] The Golden Eagles are a fun team to watch, but with two-time Big East Media Darling of the Year winner Tyler Kolek and Shaka out on the court (literally) I find them hard to cheer for.
Now for some more obvious choices to hate on: Duke and Kentucky. Yuck. Two of the whiniest fan bases in the country with two of the whiniest coaches in the country is really easy to dislike. John Scheyer likely nominated Kyle Filipowski for Comeback Player of the Year after he fell victim to an absolutely criminal bump, and John Calipari will likely still whine when his batch of one-year mercenaries gets bounced because of the officiating. These two are almost too easy to cheer against.
Upset to pick: Not James Madison
JMU turned heads on the opening night of the season when they beat Michigan State. Since then, the Dukes have racked up wins against the likes of Akron (#116), Southern Illinois (#122), and Arkansas State (#131). Those are JMU’s three best wins this season and their three losses came against Appalachian State (#79) twice and Southern Miss (#243). These dudes played absolutely no one outside of the Spartans all season and still managed to drop a couple stinkers. If you’re desperate to pick an upset in the opening round there’s this dude named Trey Townsend who plays for Oakland, and he is literally the best player of all time.
Best opening round matchup: #7 Florida vs #10 Boise State/Colorado
I honestly picked this one just so I could talk about a couple teams from the West for a moment. No hate Florida, it’s not you, it’s me.
Boise State does not light it up in the computer numbers, but I love them anyway and it’s mostly because of Max Rice and Tyson Degenhart. Rice is the son of the coach and he shoots like it, while Degenhart looks like he was sculpted out of marble and handed a basketball. Anyone who watches Mountain West basketball knows either of these guys could be a March hero for the Broncos. It could be Rice getting hot from deep (like, really deep) and it could be Degenhart grinding the game out in the paint and dropping a double-double.
The Buffaloes also have a couple of guys that should be fun to watch in the opening round. Remember Eddie Lampkin from TCU? He found his way to Colorado and is still thicker than the windows on a submarine. He also has a knack for hoovering up rebounds and getting buckets in the paint. More of a fan of watching a guard who can shoot? KJ Simpson shoots a lot and 45% of his threes connect. He also gets to the line, distributes well, takes care of the ball and scores well inside the arc. The dude can just ball, but is not the most entertaining guard in the region somehow.
Player to watch: Wade Taylor IV, #9 Texas A&M
This dude is just unhinged. He started his college career shooting and has done nothing but shoot even more since. A perfect example of this is the two wins the Aggies had over Kentucky where Taylor 31 and 32. In the second game, Taylor shot 11-24 with 4-5 from the line. The first outing was slightly less efficient, as Wade shot 7-24 with 11-12 from the line. He also put 41 on Arkansas in a losing effort while shooting 13-31 and 10-13 from the line. You get the point, Wade Taylor is gonna shoot and he’s gonna shoot a lot regardless of what the smart play is. Never stop gunning, Wade.
Sweet 16 predictions
#1 Houston, #2 Marquette, #4 Duke, #6 Texas Tech
I picked one upset. Kentucky has proven they can score 100 on just about anyone. They have also proven that they cannot defend anyone, and Texas Tech is capable of scoring in bunches while also making an effort on the defensive end. This is really a spite pick, but UK plays with fire and a guy like Pop Isaacs could burn them.
Regional final prediction
Houston over Marquette
No need to overthink this.