Arizona faces yet another region where the bottom of the bracket is absolutely loaded.
After four months of winnowing, the greatest single-elimination contest is sports is set to begin. From 362 D1 basketball programs, 68 have been chosen to spend three weekends playing for the sport’s national title. Each of the four regions will battle to send one representative to the Final Four. Now it’s time for the West.
Poor Arizona. Last year they got wiped out in the first round. This year the committee has handed them a region with ten teams in the top 40 in efficiency since February started. The ten seed is looming as a top 20 team, Michigan State is here too. The one seed, UNC, shouldn’t be a one seed and is only the third best team in this region over the last month plus.
There are only four actually bad teams in this region. All of them land on the 14 line or below. A well seeded region? Of course not. Nevada is a ten, Dayton is way too high as a seven, and Michigan State should be playing in, not comfortably in as a nine seed. Pat Kelsey, noted crazy person, has another team capable of springing a surprise. If you’re looking for chaos, the West may be your place.
Who springs the big upset?
Probably a team that starts with N. Nevada is really good and Dayton, frankly, isn’t. The Wolfpack wouldn’t be an easy matchup in the second round for Arizona either. New Mexico is also on a heater right now. Clemson won’t be as easy a mark as UD, but in terms of efficiency, New Mexico will be favored in that game. If Charleston can force the pace and connect on the threes they will inevitably take, they could shock an Alabama team that prefers not to play defense at all.
Easiest team to cheer against: #7 Dayton
I mean, is this even a question? Dayton is the ultimate Ohio little brother. That’s actually a little unfair, because my little brothers are all from Ohio and I don’t despise them. UD fans are still whining about 2020 as if the pandemic was somehow specifically designed to keep them from making the tournament instead of that just being a super happy accident. Get over it, Flyers.
Most fun team to cheer for: #11 New Mexico
Fast basketball is fun. Fast basketball with a ton of three pointers is even more fun. New Mexico hits one of those points. The Lobos get up and down the court like maniacs, but they eschew the newfangled three point shot in favor of… missing a bunch and then crashing the boards. They don’t shoot anything particularly well, but they take care of the ball and get on the offensive glass hard. Plus, they feature Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr, both sons of players that fans of my generation will remember well.
Player to watch: Jalen Bridges, #3 Baylor
Bridges is a player who wouldn’t have had much traction 30 years ago. He’s a 6-9 forward who is a mediocre rebounder, doesn’t chip in many assists, and is just adequate on defense. What does he do? He shoots a lot and shoots really well. Scott Drew will use him in all manner of screen and rolls and spot up opportunities. He’s dangerous and he’s fun. Actually, all of Baylor is pretty fun. Honorable mention here goes to Kenan Blackshear of Nevada. He left FAU, only to watch most of his recruiting class go on that magic run last year. He makes the Wolfpack go.
Best first round matchup: #6 Clemson v. #11 New Mexico
There’s a reason that this is a really trendy upset pick. Styles make fights, and New Mexico’s pace against Clemson’s desire to walk could make this one fascinating.
Boom or bust team: #5 St. Mary’s
This team is red hot right now. Since Christmas they have lost once, and that was to Gonzaga. They also beat the Zags twice, racked up an 8-5 record in the top two quads, and are 13th in the nation in adjusted efficiency over the last two months. That New Mexico team everyone loves? These guys beat them by 14. There’s no team in this bracket they’ll fear.
But they might not make it out of the first round. Metrically speaking they are only four point favorites against Grand Canyon. St. Mary’s plays slowly, which means that every possession matters. Against teams that get hot, or maybe a GCU team that defends extremely well inside the arc, it could only take a few empty possessions for the Gaels to be staring down a real problem.
Underseeded: #10 Nevada
The Wolfpack are a top 20 team since Feb 1st. They have six quad one wins, are undefeated in quad two, and have a solitary bad loss. They pounded TCU on a neutral and have a better top quads record than the Horned Frogs, but got a worse seed. Does anyone look at these things or is the committee just throwing darts?
Sweet Sixteen Picks:
#1 UNC, #5 St. Mary’s, #3 Baylor, #2 Arizona
Regional final prediction
Arizona over St. Mary’s