The Tournament’s top overall seed is residing in a region that likely presents the toughest road for the one.
Welcome to our coverage of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! The best event in sports is here and we will be as well, providing step-by-step previews of each region and breaking down what to watch for and who to keep an eye on during the basketball feast that is the NCAA Tournament.
Overseeded: #11 North Carolina
You’re going to read this a lot, but there is not coherent explanation for UNC to be in the field that doesn’t begin and end with the fact that their AD was the committee chair. The explanation renowned doofus Seth Davis fell all over himself to squawk out as the audience reeled from an absolute hammer blow to the cause of sanity was that their non-conference strength of schedule was one of the best in the country. So was Mississippi Valley State’s and, like the Tarheels, they did not beat any opponent of substance who was not shorthanded. Predictives like them but, as we’re about to find out, that doesn’t actually mean anything. Their best win over a healthy opponent came almost 4 months ago by 2 points over a Dayton team that didn’t even make the A-10 semifinal.
Underseeded: #8 Louisville
Did UNC get in because of the strength of the ACC? I guess not because a team that went 18-2 and made the tournament final is only an 8 seed. Pat Kelsey’s squad ended up 29th on the committee’s seed list. There is not a single metric, predictive or resume based, that has them that low. Not one. The closest they come is the comically bad BPI which puts them at 28th, three spots below North Carolina. This team has lost twice since Christmas, racked up more wins in the top 2 quads than Texas Tech, Kansas, or Kentucky, lost 1 game outside of Q1 and none below Q2, and beat 5 seeded Clemson twice. While they do get a practical home game by playing in Lexington, they belong at least two seed lines higher than they are.
Easy to Like: #3 Iowa State
Realistically, Louisville fits this bill as well due mostly to the overwhelming charisma of Xavier legend Pat Kelsey, but we’ll look to the other team with a coach who looks like he is both willing and able to suplex his opposite number at a moment’s notice TJ Otzelberger. Otzelberger was the architect of the Mike Daum South Dakota State teams before bouncing to UNLV for a couple of years and then arriving in Ames to piece together the wreckage left by Steve Prohm’s tenure. His teams have been top 10 in defensive efficiency every year and have progressively played faster and better offense during his time at the helm.
Fun to Watch: #10 New Mexico
The Lobos play at the second fastest pace of any team in the field and, despite that, do a decent job of taking care of the ball. The excel at limiting their opponents to a single shot per possession, thanks largely to Nelly Junior Joseph, which means if they don’t turn you over, which they do at the 12th best rate in the field, they are grabbing your miss and running. Their main issue is that they are not particularly effective at scoring the ball at any level, but they don’t let little things like shooting 68% from the line as team stop them from being a heck of a lot of fun.
Easy to Hate: Yeesh
There are a lot of sneaky hateable teams in this region, but no clear cut favorite. Starting at the top, Bruce Pearl pretty much invites it whenever he is on the screen and Chad Baker-Mazara is another easy lightning rod for Auburn haters. Michigan State has Tre Holloman filling that role from an on court perspective and employs noted goober Kevin Pagua, who pretty clearly has rigged his metric in the Big Ten and specifically the Spartans themselves favor. Further down you have the Chris Beard led Ole Miss Rebels; I probably shouldn’t have to explain why employing that dude might garner you some antipathy from neutrals. Shaka Smart, it’s fair to say, divides opinion, Richard Pitino has grown on me more as he’s been on my tv less, and UNC is UNC and also doesn’t deserve to be here. If you’re a hater by nature, this is a target rich environment.
Danger Team: #4 Texas A&M
Do you like watching deliberate, well crafted offense where the whole team coordinates their placement and timing in order to produce an open shot? What about an offense where 5 dudes run around for a while before someone chucks up a shot which is neither open nor particularly high percentage, kicking off a mad scramble that has a 42% chance of resulting in them getting the chance to do that again? If the second sound like mor your speed, the Aggies are the team for you. They rank 317th in EFG%, 317 in 3P%, 293 in 2P%, and 274 in FT%, and have a higher percentage of their shots blocked than anyone else in D-1. Despite being bad at the thing that is literally the entire point of having the ball, they were a top 50 offense because they refuse to let possessions die, grabbing back 42% of their misses which is the best mark in the country. They are led by legendary gunner Wade Taylor IV, who has attempted 1,645 field goals in his 4 years (for comparison Zach Freemantle, who has played an extra year, is sitting on 1,344). They could very well lose to Yale (they got knocked off by UCF already this year) or they could get hot and make the Final Four, given that they sport wins over Auburn and Texas Tech.
Best Matchup: #5 Michigan vs #12 UC San Diego
The Tritons are making their tournament debut and are riding the nation’s longest winning streak into this one, having run off 15 straight. The Wolverines are back in the tournament in year one under Dusty May and just dispatched Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin en route to the Big Ten Tournament title. UCSD is on the smaller side, boasting no regular rotation player over 6’8” while Michigan has a pair of 7 footers in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. Combating the obvious size advantage is the fact that Michigan turns the ball over a ton and does not create many turnovers on defense while San Diego generates more turnovers than anyone else in the field and turns it over on the 5th fewest possessions. Will Michigan’s overwhelming size difference tell or can the Tritons win the freebie battle by a large enough margin to cancel it out?
Player to Watch: Donovan Dent, New Mexico
This region has some of college basketball’s biggest names in terms of on the court talent in Johni Broome, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Chucky Hepburn, Wade Taylor, and Kam Jones, so we’ll look a little beyond them to the MWC Player of the Year. To play at the pace New Mexico does consistently and not end up just fueling your opponents’ ability to run right back at you, you need a steady hand at the wheel and that is what Dent is for the Lobos. Sporting an eye popping 36% assist rate, Dent is excellent at taking care of the ball and coupled his 6.4 assists and 1.4 steals per game with 20.9 points on solid, if not spectacular, shooting splits. His battle with Jones will be one of the best individual matchups of the first round.