Florida grabs the top line, but there is danger aplenty scattered through the West Region should the Gators not bring their A game.
Welcome to our coverage of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! The best event in sports is here and we will be as well, providing step-by-step previews of each region and breaking down what to watch for and who to keep an eye on during the basketball feast that is the NCAA Tournament.
Overseeded: #5 Memphis
Do you remember how you celebrated the New Year? If you have trouble pulling that memory at all, just know it happened more recently than Memphis’s last Q1 game. Heck, they’ve only played 4 Q2 games in 2025, and they lost one of them. They’ve played one game in KenPom’s top 100 this year. However you want to slice it, this group has been plowing cupcakes since the ball dropped, which is how you go 19-2 but sit 64th in the Torvik over that span. They built their resume brick by tiny brick one .15 WAB game at a time; they’re paper tigers (pun!).
Underseeded: #11 Drake
There’s not a whole lot that I said about Memphis that you couldn’t also say about Memphis. The Bulldogs are undefeated in the top 2 quads and have 30 wins to their name on the year. They don’t have as many top line wins as Memphis, but they have also been blowing through cupcake teams since the calendar turned. When you filter out stuff that happened before all the Thanksgiving leftovers were eaten, there’s not much to separate these teams. If Memphis is a 5, it’s hard for me to buy Drake at 11.
Easy to like: #15 Nebraska Omaha
A decade ago, this team wasn’t even eligible to play in the D1 NCAA tournament. They have played in two postseason tournaments since jumping to D1, and neither of them was NCAA affiliated. On the court, they only play offense; their defense is 252nd and their offense is inside the top 100. In the words of my 12-year-old son, “Frick it, we ball.” Just get some shots up, we’ll figure the rest out in post. I suspect they’re going to lose by about a million to St. John’s, but it will be a fun story right up until it isn’t.
Fun to watch: #6 Missouri
I like Dennis Gates. His was a name that got bandied about in the time between the Steele Era ending and Sean Miller signing on, and while I think Xavier got that one right, I wouldn’t have hated having Gates on the sideline at Cintas. A lot of the things about Omaha in the above paragraph apply to Missouri here. They play fast, fun basketball, get shots up, and get to the line a ton. Their defensive strategy is to force a turnover or take the ball out of the bottom of the net. Their metrics outpace their resume a bit; this could be a squad we got to watch for multiple weekends.
Easy to hate: #10 Arkansas
In a sense, John Calipari is a trailblazer in this game because he was paying players long before it was trendy or even allowed [citation needed]. In the words of my UK fan friend who is also a giant hater, “He’s not as dominant a recruiter when everyone is paying players. He won’t let the dribble-drive offense go. Refuses to accept analytics for the tool it can be and I think that annoys recruits trying to make it to the NBA.” I’ve never liked Calipari and most people of good conscience agree with me. The sooner he accepts he’s a dinosaur and walks away, the better off we’ll all be.
Danger team: #4 Maryland
These guys guard well, score enough, and are battle tested. The last time they lost by more than a single possession was January 5. They don’t have a ton of depth, but they ride a core group that has been delightfully dubbed “the Crab Five” by the fans, and that lineup can play with anyone. Maybe more to the point, they’re the only team on the top 6 seed lines in this region that does anything on the defensive glass, and that could be the key to anyone beating St. John’s. I know it’s a little chalky to call the 4 seed a danger team, but I think this is a Final Four darkhorse.
Best matchup: #5 Memphis v. #12 Colorado State
Colorado State is riding a casual 10-game winning streak and have won more Q1 games in March than Memphis has played in 2025, including absolutely drubbing Utah State and Boise State to keep the bubble big and win the MWC’s auto bid. Colorada State is ahead of Memphis by 22 spots in the Torvik and and 9 in the KenPom, and this game is being played in Seattle. People are going to be telling you to take UCSD over Michigan as your obligatory 12 over 5 game; I’m saying you would be remiss to overlook this one. I think this is going to be a really good game to watch.
Player to watch: Nique Clifford, Colorado State
In the KenPom player of the year standings, the conferences represented are the ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East, SEC, and… Mountain West, through Nique Clifford. This guy does it all. He’s a 6’6” guard averaging 19.0/9.7/4.4 on .507/.398/.770 shooting. He can score at all three levels with a ridiculous 46.6% shooting percentage in the mid-range on 168 attempts. He also rarely turns the ball over, defends very well, and kept both his usage rate and his ORtg high in KenPom A/B tier games. He’s also on an absolute heater right now. His last four games were at Boise State and neutral site tournament games against Nevada, Utah State, and Boise State. All away from home, all against teams in the top 80 on KenPom, and he averaged 27.8/8.8/4.0 on .565/.487/.857. He will have the chance to write his name in March Madness lore alongside the likes of Harold “The Show” Arceneaux and Wally Szczerbiak – both of whose names I spelled correctly (I think) without looking them up – in the coming weeks.