It’s hard to determine much with the cupcake schedule they’ve played, but UC looks good so far.
You probably think that Xavier has played an incredibly soft schedule so far and punted on their best chances to turn that into anything. You probably think that the conference schedule will have to really come up big for the Musketeers to manage much come March. You probably think that being 75th in the NET is a reflection of not even hammering the terrible teams that X has played. You’re right on all counts.
Things get more difficult now. How much more difficult is kind of hard to tell. Cincinnati has also scheduled the sisters of the poor tour, with Villanova being the lone exception. Like Xavier, UC spit the bit on their only chance to win a game against a real team. Like Xavier they pretty pitiful doing it. The difference is that the Bearcats have been destroying lesser competition. None of their buy games have run them close at all. It has been a stream of Morgan St. style beatdowns.
So, what do we know? Well, they’re good. This isn’t a team built on just rock-fighting their way to wins like the bad old (hilarious) days of UC. They can shoot really well and they don’t turn the ball over. The caveat? They haven’t played anyone who plays good defense. Even Villanova, who is 128th in the nation in defense, held them a point per possession. Arkansas Pine-Bluff did not. The key is in picking out the things that, even against lesser competition, the Bearcats haven’t done well.
No easy buckets
Cincinnati is appalling at the line. Like, catastrophic. They are bottom ten in both getting to the line and converting once they get there. They shoot 59.4%. That’s laughably bad. You know what an already charged atmosphere needs? Hard fouls. Even the Bearcats primary ballhandlers as bad from the line. They can shoot, sure, but they probably can’t shoot while being whacked across both arms. Make them prove it.
Protect the arc
Nova challenged UC shooters at the three point and they blinked a bit. The Bearcats were 8-26 against the Wildcats. Other than that UC has shot the three well. The only took 16 against Morehead St, but that’s because they were scoring at will inside. These guys are going to bomb away if they can. They’ve shot 50% on over 20 attempts twice this year. If they get rolling the points will pile up quickly.
Attack the shot blockers
Xavier gets blocked on a weirdly high amount of their shot attempts and UC hunts blocked shots. What UC hasn’t seen yet this year (outside of Nova) is a player like Zach Freemantle who will linger in short corners and hoover up shot attempts from dishing guards. If Dayvion McKnight, Ryan Conwell, and Dailyn Swain get into the lane and distribute when challenged, Freemantle can feast.
Be willing to be patient
UC doesn’t push defensive pace or force a lot of turnovers. They’ve kept teams from working the ball against them. Xavier likes to go fast, but they aren’t going to be under pressure that will be focused on turning them over. Keeping the ball and finding the good shot will work if no one gets out ahead of themselves. Dante Maddox in particular needs to stay calm and not travel the first time he touches the ball.