My tweet started all this, so I guess I better explain it.
Yesterday I remembered that Xavier had a game (what a weird time for one) and offered to do the live tweeting for the guys. Hey, it’s a 2pm game against a Q4 opponent on a Tuesday, what could go wrong? Well, you could tweet this:
Xavier doesn’t *need* this game because it’s auto bid or bust at this point. That said, the program is 17-17 in 2024. A win would be nice to have.
— Banners on the Parkway (@BannersParkway) December 31, 2024
To say this wasn’t a popular take would be to understate things pretty significantly. That opinion comes from our podcast. Jump to the 17 minute mark and have a listen. The situation hasn’t changed since then.
Joel explains it in depth there, but the gist is this. Bart Torvik has a tool called Teamcast. It’s based on the data from the NCAA Tournament from time eternal and takes each resume to calculate the odds a team with those metrics has of making the tournament. It is almost unerringly accurate, with the foibles of the Committee always making things a little interesting. Tracking so far?
Per Teamcast Xavier needs to go 13-7 in the Big East (and 1-1 in the BET) to make the tournament. Right now Teamcast has Xavier finishing 10-10. That leaves them 66th in wins above bubble and the 13th team out. That’s not really even on the bubble. They would have a 3.7% chance of making the tournament. That means somewhere in there you need to find three more wins or, if you prefer, count only five games they will lose.
And that’s where things get dicey. Here’s the schedule the rest of the way as well as the KenPom odds of winning:
| Fri Jan 3 | Georgetown | 50% | Away |
| Tue Jan 7 | St. John’s | 44% | Home |
| Sat Jan 11 | DePaul | 61% | Away |
| Tue Jan 14 | Villanova | 64% | Home |
| Sat Jan 18 | Marquette | 16% | Away |
| Wed Jan 22 | St. John’s | 24% | Away |
| Sat Jan 25 | Connecticut | 45% | Home |
| Wed Jan 29 | Creighton | 38% | Away |
| Tue Feb 4 | Georgetown | 70% | Home |
| Sun Feb 9 | Villanova | 40% | Away |
| Wed Feb 12 | Providence | 55% | Away |
| Sat Feb 15 | DePaul | 80% | Home |
| Tue Feb 18 | Butler | 71% | Home |
| Sun Feb 23 | Seton Hall | 71% | Away |
| Sat Mar 1 | Creighton | 63% | Home |
| Wed Mar 5 | Butler | 49% | Away |
| Sat Mar 8 | Providence | 76% | Home |
Xavier can only lose five more games. Georgetown is clearly a toss up game. It’s also a Q2, so it’s not really moving the needle. Then comes St. John’s, top 20 in KenPom, 22nd in Torvik, and 33rd in the NET. It’s another Q2, so even if you flip that, it doesn’t matter much. Just do this the rest of the way down.
Xavier took two incredible swings at UConn and Marquette and came up short both times, so there’s two more losses. They’re currently a nearly ten point underdog at St. John’s and have a less than 40% chance at Creighton or Nova. There’s five. That’s excluding any sort of goofy thing that the Big East tends to serve up like losing to Providence at home (last year), Butler on the road (2022), or DePaul at home (2021).
What that all means is that Xavier, a team that has maybe, maybe, one good win so far this year, a team that is 0-5 in Q1 already this year, has to go above .500 in the top two quads the rest of the way just to get on the bubble. Drop one of those big games and they’re on the wrong side. Drop a game they shouldn’t and they damage an already bad resume. Win, but don’t get the big Q1 wins and it won’t matter.
Keep in mind that Xavier hasn’t won the games they’ve played outside of their minds (UConn), their best defensive effort (the Shootout), or their chance for a Q1 home win (Marquette). They are missing their best player who has suffered at least a bone bruise so bad his knee couldn’t be imaged for almost two weeks. They lost their walking double-double before the season even started. Trey Green, instant offense, isn’t looking to return any time soon. Even in dog walking a terrible Seton Hall team yesterday, they turned the ball over the instant the Pirates ratcheted up the pressure.
So, is it really auto bid or bust? No, it’s not. Xavier could go 12-5 the rest of the way in the Big East and just, just, sneak in. It depends on what you think is realistic. If you think that Xavier will become something they haven’t been and start ripping off wins against good teams, there’s a chance. If you think Zach Freemantle walks back in at 100% and ready to play 30+ minutes a game, there’s a chance. If you think that Dante Maddox can find some consistency and Jerome Hunter and John Hugley can sort things out, there’s a chance.
If you think all that, God bless. You must have a lot of friends and people must genuinely enjoy your rose-colored look at life. (I’m being serious, by the way, good on you for looking on the bright side.) Xavier needs it all to go right for that to happen. Look back at the last two months though, and ask yourself if that will really happen.
Man I hope so.