We’ve kept saying Xavier has the chances to complete their resume, but time is running out.
At some point hope has to turn into something, or it just remains a fantasy. Since the first loss to UConn, the story has essentially been the same: hold serve at home, grab a couple of good Q1s, don’t lose the poison games. The Musketeers have spent a month just kicking the can down the road. Losing away to Creighton and UConn was expected, snagging a win at Providence and then winning three straight was also just what needed done. Then came Saturday.
Holding serve at home means occasionally needing to win a big game. Instead, Xavier get clobbered by Creighton. The Musketeers at least shaved the margin of victory down to keep from having a huge stain on their computer numbers. That, loss, though, put X behind the eight ball. It’s all well and good to say there are more opportunities to come, but at some point the team will have to grab one.
But, and stop me if you’ve heard this before, Xavier can still find the wins they need. Their next best chance is tomorrow. Seton Hall is only a Q2 (they are literally right on the line at 76th), but the game is worth .57 wins above bubble. That would jump Xavier back up into the -.2 range with a home game against Providence coming up next. So, yes, we are right back to Xavier having two games in a week and needing to win them both. By losing to Creighton, the Musketeers are in a spot where they need to get a road win. Seton Hall is probably the best chance (not including Georgetown) to do that.
Even doing that just gets Xavier back to the cut line. That would leave a huge game at Marquette, a two game swing through the bottom of the table, and then at Butler and home to Marquette to end the season. There are seven games left. Xavier probably needs to win five of them. Even that is only going to get X barely into the field. All of the opportunities have slipped away to the point where even 4-3 just won’t get it done.
There is also the small matter of the Big East Tournament. A run there could mean a Q1 win and just more win aggregation. The seeding permutations are still too convoluted to get into, but winning one there would add gloss to anything Xavier has done to that point assuming, of course, they miss Georgetown and DePaul.
Things look bleak according to the experts. Over at ESPN they say “At 13-11 Xavier has reached must-win territory in mid-February… The path to an at-large bid still exists, but it’s narrowing.” Jerry Palm at CBS doesn’t even have Xavier on the bubble right now. Warren Nolan aggregates the whole thing. His page shows Xavier at 59th in the KPI and 60th in strength of record. Neither of those are tournament numbers. If there was ever a time for a big winning streak, it’s now.