Xavier finally got their big win on Saturday night. And what a way to do it.
We know everyone is thinking football now, but we’re still hung up on that big win on Saturday. We spent Sunday discussing just how that happened.
Brad: Skin of your teeth? By a fingernail? For dear life? How do you guys like your “hangs on”?
Joel: Never in doubt? That’s the beauty of the 19-point lead; you cruise across the finish line.
The last 10 minutes or so were something less than a commercial for the beautiful game, but Dayvion McKnight did just enough and the team defense – led by Dailyn Swain and a ton of effort – was as good as it has been all year. We’re well past the point where style points matter; we picked up more than a WAB this week.
I mean, the season was well and truly in the balance with 5 minutes left against Nova, down to our last 18.8% of win probability. To go from there to where we are now in 45 minutes of game play gives me some hope that maybe we can get hot.
Brad: I think X will be at about -.5 WAB after this one. That’s not good, but like you said, it’s way better than it was. There’s still a lot of work to be done, but at least it’s possible now.
But that last ten minutes was pure stress. It felt like a tournament game.
Joel: Yeah, that felt like an opportunity we couldn’t afford to give away after having been up so many. I think Nova was a game that, if we didn’t get it, we might as well fold up shop and wait for the chance at an auto bid. This one wasn’t the same in an objective sense, but it was more stressful to me because the Nova win put us back into play.
UConn at home is going to be huge. If we can get that, winning out at home seems feasible and then win the Q2/3 roadies and I think we’re in position to just need one in the BET to be okay. There’s a lot of road left ahead, but you can just about see a path to an at-large.
Bryan: I think this game will do a lot for the team’s belief that they can go anywhere and beat anyone. I think there are probably only a couple more valuable wins in terms of opponent and venue in the sport this year.
Can we just talk about Marcus Foster for a second? He was an animal on Eric Dixon on Tuesday night and then he and McKnight gave Kam Jones absolute fits today. He’s not going to get a lot of buzz nationally, but his contributions over the two games that have X headed in the right direction are as valuable as anyone’s.
Braydan: First off, I’m treating John Hugely’s one stick back as the game winner. I feel like he needs that right now. Secondly, some dude on reddit described our season series against Marquette by saying, “Lose by a foot. Win by a hand.” It really has been thay close for this team most of the year, and we’ve finally gotten the result in a couple of “those games.”
The encouraging thing to me is that we shot like crap from three and still found a way to get this one over the line. We didn’t exactly put on an offensive clinic, but a few guys looked like genuine threats to get buckets all night.
I was also incredibly nervous they were gonna send Mitchell to the line at the end, but they finally got a call right.
Joel: Circling back to Foster, I thought he was immense against Dixon. Considering he gave up 3 inches and 50 pounds, the fact that he forced Dixon to shoot 3-11 from inside the arc was incredible. That was a really impressive performance.
On the same note, I thought Dailyn Swain was incredible against Marquette. He got credited for one steal and I honestly don’t know how it wasn’t way more. It seemed like he had hands everywhere; Marquette couldn’t get into a flow for most of the game, but especially when he was out there. He also grabbed six offensive boards, which was huge considering how poorly we shot.
This team goes seven deep right now, and dudes 6 and 7 are prone to having games where they’re indisputably negative contributors. How worried are we about depth?
Bryan: You ask this on a day when Jerome Hunter posted a blistering 209 ORTG in 19 minutes?
Marquette and St. John’s get about as many minutes from their benches as X does and are sitting pretty right now. Dante Maddox’s belief in Dante Maddox has made me believe in Dante Maddox, and I thought he was really good today. Jerome seemed to struggle with Joplin, but has been good defensively in other games and still has just about the best motor on the team. If one or both of those guys could just get their shot to fall a little more consistently, then I think we’re made in the shade, but I think Xavier can still get done what they need to down the stretch to go dancing with them bringing the same Airheads Mystery Flavor energy they have been.
Brad: I’m really worried about depth. That said, I also believe in Dante Maddox for no reason other than that someone that confident must be about to do something awesome.
You need more than two minutes out of John “Game Winner” Hugley, though. If you can piece 15 out of he and Cam Fletcher, that would help a ton.
Bryan: Hugley is, to my surprise, second on the team in ORTG since conference play started. To my not surprise, he leads the way in turnover rate and foul rate. If he can keep holding his own on the glass and just stop turning the ball over, he’s a viable piece. He’s not really indicated he is ready to turn that particular corner, but Mal Bernard was in the middle of a pretty forgettable season until he flipped the switch and became a Xavier legend, so we may be yet to see the best of John Hugley.
Joel: I think we may be yet to see the best out of this whole group. We focus a lot on the fact that they’re second in the nation in D1 experience and sometimes overlook the fact that they’re 232nd in minutes continuity.
McKnight and Swain played together last year. Other than that, these guys are very much still learning how to play with one another. If they can string together some consistent results, we might get to see a talented, experienced group come together on the fly. I think the fact that they won two huge games in two extremely disparate ways this week is a really hopeful sign.