There was never much hope, just a fool’s hope.
Why do we watch sports? For some of us, it’s a fate handed down from parents stubbornly adherent to northern Ohio even in a move south. A determination to be different leads to a dogmatic approach to cheering (Cleveland vs The World). For others, it’s a reminder of something we used to do well or maybe still do. It’s watching elite athletes do what they do and make the incredible seem mundane. For a few degenerates, it’s to make money. For everyone, though, it’s for a little bit of fun escapism.
So, escape with me now. Let’s get away from the woods of a 9-7 start and chances fumbled away out into the open air of a 2-0 turnaround and the glimmering sea of more, pure, unfumbled chances waiting on the horizon. There will be no negativity in this article. Here’s what Xavier has to do to make the tournament:
Listen to our podcast if you want fully 25 minutes of discussion on exactly this topic.
Win a lot
There’s no way to sugarcoat this, because of unfortunate things I’ve promised not to discuss in this article, Xavier can’t just cruise home. They need to win, and win a whole bunch. Nine wins the rest of the way, rescuing a 12-8 Big East record from a 1-4 start, puts them right on the cut line.* Yikes. You may note that winning nine games means they have to knock off some pretty impressive competition. Nine wins means going 1-3 in the Four Games (caps intended) that will define this season. Those four are the next four: at Marquette, at St. John’s, home with UConn, at Creighton.
But what if Xavier splits them? Instead of dropping both of the upcoming road tests, what if Xavier wins one and then keeps rolling, going 2-2 over the Four Games? Doink either Marquette or St. John’s in their own gym, keep on that pace that would have won nine, and X is in the tournament. Easy as that!
Hold serve at home
Xavier just can’t lose any more home games. Their last five are Georgetown, DePaul, Butler, Creighton, and Providence. There’s a couple tough ones in there, but any team hoping to have at-large chances come Selection Sunday should knock off those five teams.
But Xavier has six home games left. They play UConn at home on Saturday the 25th. They really need to win that one to position themselves with a realistic chance of making the tournament. Even if they drop the other three of the Four Games, just winning UConn at home gives them a fighting chance.
Make noise in the BET.
Ok, so say things don’t go perfectly, but Xavier holds serve at home, beats Seton Hall, Providence, and Butler on the road (and if they lose any of those three, pack it in) and loses the rest. That’s still a very tall task, but it leaves X with just a 33% chance of a bid and, per Bart at least, on the wrong side of the bubble.
But that doesn’t end the season. The Big East tournament looms large for any Xavier chance. For one, they could just win the stupid thing and eliminate all this worry. Secondly, they could win a couple games. Yes, even at 12-8 and with that run to end the season, Xavier isn’t getting in by just beating Butler (and let’s all face it, it will be Butler) in the first game. Second would likely be St. John’s. Xavier has to win that one as well.
Get that one and you get UConn. The good news? Two wins slides you up to somewhere around a coin toss chance to make the tournament. The better news? There’s no penalty for losing to UConn on a neutral court. It’s a game you can win and basically solidify a bid, or lose (so long as it isn’t a rout) and still be right there.
So that’s the positive look at things. Somehow, after the quicksand pit that was the non-con and the awful start to conference play, Xavier still controls their own destiny. It won’t even be kind of easy, but it isn’t impossible. Escapism and fun are why we’re here. Let’s just imagine this run for a moment. Wouldn’t it be great? Why not us?
*All numbers and probabilities are from Bart Torvik’s excellent Teamcast tool. An explanation for how it works (and it has been refined a lot since this article) can be found here.