Xavier has changed over the last two weeks.
Things have changed for Xavier over the last two weeks. Most obviously, they started winning games. A season that could have only been revived by doctors on some television show that makes no sense suddenly had some movement on the EKG. Back from the dead is probably too strong, but Xavier had found some sort of life in a season that was staggering to another unpleasant end in some half full gym with fans attending out of obligation.
But after the St. John’s game something changed. As Zach Freemantle mentioned, there was a team meeting in which the toughness of everyone was challenged and they determined to get back to a gritty mentality. While the way they have played offense has been a lot like sandpaper in an open wound, some good grit has found its way in.
In that two week span, Xavier has been the second best defensive team in the nation. (And has racked up the seventh most WAB). Overall for the season they are 64th, so that’s a significant jump. Even over the last ten, where obviously the three games have a bigger impact, they are only 30th. The performance on defense has gotten better, fast.
First off, the statistical oddity: teams are still shooting reasonably well against X. In that span the Musketeers are allowing 47.6% EFG, good for 92nd in the nation. Opponents aren’t shooting excessively well against Xavier, but they aren’t being stifled either. For a team with a huge spike in defensive performance that either means it’s a fluke or the improvement is hidden elsewhere.
Thankfully for X, there is improvement elsewhere. Teams just aren’t getting to the line nearly as much over the last three games. Xavier has tightened up the interior defense since Zach Freemantle came back (yes, you read that right) and that has caused a commensurate drop in the time John Hugley plays. In the games Freemantle was missing, Hugley was over 15 minutes twice. John, God love him, fouls a lot and in those games he was sending people to the line. Since the return of Freemantle, Hugley’s time has dropped significantly, and with it his chance to slap people. Add in Jerome Hunter only committing six fouls in the last 62 minutes and you get a decent turnaround.
Far more importantly, Xavier has started ending possessions. There’s a reason this uptick starts after the St. John’s game, and that’s because St. John’s obliterated Xavier on the glass. It was an absolute punking in every sense of the term. The Red Storm got 46.5% of their own misses. Since then, Xavier is allowing a 24% rebounding rate. That’s not elite, it would be eighth in the nation for the season, but is only 46th over the time span, but it is a massive improvement from where they were.
Toss in a 2% increase in turnovers caused and a big drop in tempo and you have the recipe for a team that can overcome it own offensive woes, which are myriad, and win by playing stifling defense. The big test comes tomorrow. Xavier keeping SJU off the glass will be indicative of a corner turned. Getting owned again could mean the happy vibes were just a blip. When you put yourself in this position, every game is a referendum. Xavier must keep passing them.