It’s basically a series of at-large elimination games from here on out.
That was it. Xavier got destroyed last night in a game they needed to have against Seton Hall. When was the last time the Musketeers so thoroughly crapped themselves in such a big game? Butler in the first round of the BET in 2022? At least the Musketeers competed. The Shootout in 2018? Any road, it’s been a long time since a Xavier team came out in a game that they had to have and just didn’t bother. Even the game that ended with them getting baby sealed by Gonzaga in the Elite Eight was just a one point game after 10 minutes. Last night’s game was functionally over by the seventh minute.
What that means is that Xavier’s at-large chances are also functionally over. The team needs to win five of the last six. That means, most likely, splitting with Marquette and winning all the rest. Sure, that’s just Providence, DePaul, at Georgetown, and at Butler, but do you really see this team doing that? Even winning those games and losing to Marquette twice is likely not enough.
Circumstances have conspired against Xavier to get to this point. Sasa Ciani joined the program officially in September and is playing 15 minutes a game. Abou Ousmane was brought in to play 15 minutes a game behind Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter and is instead struggling through 21 minutes a game and is, by default, Xavier’s starting center.
That’s not all, though. Xavier has also done this to themselves. They lost to Oakland and Delaware. Someone, hilariously, told us on Twitter during the Oakland game that Grizzlies would make some noise and be scary come March. They’ve since been crushed in both the other real games they’ve played and have managed to lose four times in the Horizon League. Delaware is 8-4 in the CAA and lost to Rider. Both of those are horrid and resume killing losses.
Xavier also keeps doing what I’ve called The Dumb Stuff. It was on full display in the first half last night in ten turnovers. Turnovers happen, but Seton Hall doesn’t force them. The Musketeers turned the ball over by, and none of this is an exaggeration, dribbling it off their own foot, travelling three times, throwing the ball to the opposing coach, and dropping a pass in a manner that can only be called a fumble. All of those were unforced and just chaotic errors. X couldn’t get the offense going, because Shaheen Holloway pushed his defense out, doubled every screen, and bet that no Xavier big was good enough to score on a roll. Abou Ousmane did him one better and managed to not even be able to catch the entry pass.
Where that leaves Xavier is in a really bad spot. 5-1 isn’t impossible, but it’s very improbable. Xavier is good enough to 6-0 in that stretch. Remember, they’ve played, one, two, and three in KenPom close and beaten 24, 34, and 36. Xavier could also go 2-4 or even somehow go 0-6 in that if they really want to get miserable.
What is most likely, if we’re really being positive, is 4-2. X isn’t likely to beat Marquette anywhere. Even that leaves the Musketeers as the ninth team out. Lose to Butler and that drops to 14th out, which means you probably need a finals run. Go 5-1, thereby fulfilling our original plan in a very odd way, and Xavier is a 10 seed.
You can decide what you think is most likely. No matter what, Xavier is essentially facing a series of knockout games the rest of the way. Each loss seriously damages any at large chances that the Musketeers still cling to. It isn’t late anymore, it’s the end of the game. Xavier is in serious, serious trouble.