Xavier plays host to maybe the best big man in the league on Saturday; what are they going to do about it?
Ryan Kalkbrenner has a case for being the best big man in the Big East. Heck, he’s got a case for being the best player in the Big East, regardless of position. He’s top 10 in the conference in a slew of categories, to wit: minutes percentage, OReb%, DReb%, turnover rate, fouls called per 40, fouls drawn per 40, and free throw rate. He’s top 3 in the conference in ORtg, EFG%, true shooting percentage, and two-point percentage. He’s also shooting 42.2% from deep, albeit in just under two attempts per game.
Point is, the dude can play. He’s also 7’1”.
If you’re at all familiar with Xavier’s roster, you understand the problem, as Xavier has just one regular over 6’9”, namely 6’11” reserve center John Hugley IV. So how does Xavier address the elephant in the room if they want to come away from this game with a crucial win?
Well, let’s start with what doesn’t work. Xavier tried to play Kalkbrenner mostly straight up in their trip to Creighton, and you’d anticipate that Kalkbrenner would love nothing more than the Muskies trying that again. In 33 minutes on January 29, he obliterated X to the tune of 29/9/3 on 12-17/2-2/3-4 shooting. A Xavier career high 13 from Hugley kept things interesting-adjacent until a barrage of threes sealed the game, but it seems more likely that Kalkbrenner goes off again than it does that Hugley can replicate that offensive outburst (prove me wrong, John).
So what can Xavier do? Well, Nebraska held Kalkbrenner to 4/11/2, maybe we can do what they did… which was start 6’10” Berke Buyuktuncel next to 7’1” Braxton Meah in the middle and get 19 minutes off the bench from 6’10” Andrew Morgan. That doesn’t seem replicable with Xavier’s roster.
San Diego State held him to 11/5/2 with an 88 ORtg by starting 6’10” Jared Coleman-Jones next to 7’0” Magoon Gwath. Even Georgetown, on the occasion that they slowed him down to the tune of 10 and 4, started 6’11” Drew Fielder next to 6’10” Thomas Sorber.
There’s only one team that held Kalkbrenner in check without elite size, and that’s Texas A&M. They’re a deep, experienced, and athletic team that’s also top 10 in minutes continuity this year. They’re not tall at all, but they’re cohesive and they have a ton of dudes between 6’4” and 6’9” who can defend as a unit really, really well. Kalkbrenner went for 9/10/1 that game on 4-5/0-0/1-2 shooting. It was a fairly efficient game – 108 ORtg – but he never really got up through the gears to dominate.
Two other things about that game jump out to me. The first is that Creighton was 13-37 from deep but just 10-23 from inside the arc. A&M made the paint a no-fly zone and forced everything outside for the Bluejays. Creighton loves to shoot a ton of threes despite being a very capable two-point team and the Aggies pushed them to succumb to that urge.
The other is Steven Ashworth’s line. He went for 14/1/1 with 2 turnovers. That is his only game without multiple assists this year and was his first since Jan 6, 2024 against Providence. He has been held to 1 or 0 assists just 3 times in 62 games at Creighton. To force him to do that is something special.
And I think that’s the key for Xavier. The Muskies do not have the personnel to slow Kalkbrenner down once he has the ball or even make him work to get it where he wants to. They might be able to cut off his supply though, and Texas A&M showed how effective that can be in keeping him from carrying his team to victory more or less on his own.
If he gets the ball in or near his spots, he’s going to do work. If Xavier can muddle the paint enough to encourage Creighton to shoot a ton of threes and have some combination of Dayvion McKnight, Ryan Conwell, and Dante Maddox, Jr cobble together the defensive games of their respective Musketeer careers, that might be the winning formula on defense to slow Kalkbrenner enough and give the home team a chance at a vital resume win.