With apologies to Seal, miracles will only happen for Xavier if things get a little nuts.
We’re past the point where the normal things changing are going to work. This season and this team are largely what they are at this point. They could go 5-1 down the stretch, they could go 2-4. They could go anything in between or somehow find a way to win or lose them all. Almost nothing would surprise me at this point.
Let’s just get crazy for a second, though. What would it take for Xavier to play themselves in at this point? Well, there’s a couple of different ways to look at what could happen.
Results
Providence, @ Marquette, DePaul, @ Georgetown, @ Butler, Marquette
That’s what Xavier has left. One at a time, then.
Providence
Xavier already beat the Friars by 20 at the Dunkin Center or whatever they call that leaky place now. That makes this game very winnable. Of course, Xavier had also beaten Seton Hall by 20 earlier in the season and just got clubbed by them. That means that this game is very losable. (Not a word.) There is reason for hope here, though.
Marquette games
X hasn’t played Marquette yet this season. The season likely pivots on these two games. Get at least one and the Musketeers have a chance to sneak to 5-1. The problem with that is the Marquette is really good. They beat Kansas by 14. They beat Illinois. They beat Creighton. They’re 19-6 and a consensus top 10 team.
Or at least they were until UConn obliterated them over the weekend. The Huskies grabbed over half of their misses in that game. You know who already grabs 35% of their misses in conference play? Yes, Xavier. Again, it’s a reason for hope.
DePaul and Georgetown
Either win these or just go ahead and start setting up for the NIT selection show now. Xavier, and essentially every other respectable team they’ve played, has beaten these guys.
@ Butler
If X wins at home against Providence and steals one on the road at Marquette, the season could come down to this game. Butler is only 7-9 when they don’t turn opponent’s over at least 17% of their possessions. Xavier doesn’t turn the ball over that much. It’s hardly a sure thing, but it’s a reason to think it could happen.
Those are the games left and the reasons that Xavier could win them. Some ball security here and a fanatical commitment to the offensive glass there and it doesn’t seem impossible. It’s important to remember that Xavier isn’t a bad team, they’re a middling team in an elite conference. That gets tough. Now, let’s really get nuts.
Lineups
Hear me out here, Abou Ousmane is the key to this season. Xavier has no one else who does what he does. He’s Xavier’s second best defensive player (more on that in a second), he’s an elite rebounder, and he’s tall. The problem? He has been full on pants the last two games and is having his worst offensive season since he was a freshman and he’s doing it by a large margin.
The problem is that his frontcourt running mate, Gytis Nemeiska, is also not offering a great deal offensively. His offensive efficiency is 103, but that’s just barely above average and it has dipped to 101 in conference and 86.5 against KenPom’s Tier A competition. Here comes the crazy.
Turn the season into a three on three tournament. Drop the other big.
Stop playing with two posts and go fully four outside of one. Do you know who is fifth in BPR for Xavier this season? Dailyn Swain. Swain can be something of an adventure on offense, but he’s Xavier’s best defensive player by BPR and is second behind Lazar Djokovic in defensive efficiency. Nemo isn’t getting done offensively, Djokovic isn’t getting it done offensively, and Sasa Ciani is the worst defensive player on the team. Give Swain the minutes and go small.
But wait, there’s more. Xavier’s best player (and this is skewed by sample size) in adjusted team efficiency margin is Kachi Nzeh. He’s not going to score outside about six feet and he’s charitably described as raw, but he’s a freak athlete and he forces the action. The Musketeers are in serious trouble at this point. Sticking with the rotation of Euro bigs has landed us here. They’ve all tried, they all have their positives, but they aren’t going to get this team into the tournament.
The proposal, then, is this: Swain starts. He’s the fifth best player on the team and he can play the four. Are there drawbacks? Sure, but Jerome Hunter isn’t walking through that door (or anywhere, actually). First off the bench is Kachi Nzeh. He can play the four or five and adds an athleticism that the other bigs don’t. Right now the three imports play 46 minutes a game. Find ten in there somewhere for Nzeh and see what happens.
The status quo won’t get it done for Xavier now. There is reason to think they can win five more, even if it isn’t likely. That quest becomes more unlikely if nothing changes. Get crazy and see what happens. Maybe Kachi Nzeh saves the season or Dailyn Swain goes off. The worst that can happen is what is already likely to happen.