Xavier battled the two time defending champs for 45 minutes last night. Does that matter?
In the bleak mid-winter/Frosty wind made moan/Earth stood hard as iron/Water like a stone
Mid-winter has rarely been this bleak for Xavier fans. The season started poorly when Lassina Traore did his knee. It got worse when Michigan demolished Xavier on national TV. Then Xavier threw away a game at TCU. Then Trey Green stepped away. Then Xavier threw away the Shootout. Then Zach Freemantle hurt his knee so badly they can’t even image it yet.
With all that in the back of your mind it is probably tempting to look at last night and see something of a victory for Xavier. On the road against the back-to-back champs and with a rotation of seven plus the stylings of Cam Fletcher, Xavier stood and punched with their opponent until the last five overtime minutes. They went down ten early and rallied. They gave Dan Hurley reason to praise the entire program afterward.
They also lost. It’s hard to balance the pride fans (rightfully) feel with the incredible fight the team showed and the fact that the result is really all that matters. Xavier was 61st in KenPom going into that game and exited at 59th. Some of that is due to results elsewhere. The NET will change about as much. There is no way in which losing, even to UConn, boosts anything that matters.
A lot of people are saying that this demonstrates that Xavier can still play with anyone. Maybe it does. Maybe they are going to be a team that goes four out and just races downhill. That could work. The Musketeers averaged 1.25 points per possession last night, and that number wins a lot of games. They poured in 13 three pointers and only turned the ball over on 14% of their possessions. Those are also ingredients for a lot of wins.
The question becomes whether you think Xavier can keep doing that. The defensive effort was amazing for 40 minutes and derailed in overtime. That’s an exhausting thing to do game in and out. Keeping up that intensity isn’t going to be an easy thing to do. Xavier also shot 54% behind the arc for the game and needed every single one of them to stay in the game. That is, easily, their best shooting performance of the season. The Musketeers also valued the ball incredibly well (except for when it mattered) in some contrast to their season predilection.
So, it’s up to you. Do you see a team that found a new defensive wrinkle and will shoot 50% behind the arc for the season? Do you see Cam Fletcher grabbing boards, Jerome Hunter scoring, and a quartet of blazing guards as an answer? If so, there’s reason for hope going forward.
Maybe, though, you see a team that had a hilarious 29.4% block rate against. Maybe you see a team that allowed their opponent to grab 41.2% of their misses because they have no size inside. Maybe you see a team that shot an awful 47% inside the arc and didn’t even get a win when they shot lights out from deep.
It depends on the beholder. Last night’s loss was only bad from the point of what actually matters. It’s up for you decide if the hammer blow that fell was a team breaking free of its constraints or another nail being driven into the coffin.