There never was much hope, just a fool’s hope.
We are at the pointy end of the basketball season. Teams are scrambling to solidify resumes, get on the bubble, secure a bid, lock down a one seed, and all the other amazing things that happen in March. Xavier is doing none of that. The Musketeers are hanging on to a finger grip on their tournament chances. The chance they gain an at large bid rests on them continuing an improbable run that doesn’t stop until they are in the game that could secure them an auto bid.
X has done the easy part of that. Beating DePaul and Georgetown was never really going to be an issue, even if Xavier did make heavy weather of it for awhile. Now, the level of difficulty increases. Butler had lost five in a row before it got to play a get right game against DePaul, who shouldn’t be in this conference if they aren’t going to take it seriously. KenPom’s line has the Bulldogs winning by two. After two games against the two worst teams on their schedule, Xavier will need to step things back up against Butler.
Team fingerprint
This is the ninth-best defense in the league thanks to an inability to force turnovers or bad shots. They place ninth in both defensive EFG% and TO rate. They’re fourth in DReb% and second in defensive free throw rate, but those solid numbers aren’t really enough to save it overall. Their three-point defense is kind of middle of the road, but they’re extremely porous inside the arc and are last in the league in blocking shots.
Their offense is seventh, which also isn’t great. In a weird inverse of their defense, they’re seventh in OReb% and eighth in free throw rate. They have a very good 15% TO rate in league play, but they shoot only 48% from inside the arc as a team. Their 36% mark from deep is third in the league and they shoot 79% from the line as a team, but that trouble scoring inside the arc leaves them prone to long cold stretches (sound familiar?).
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Posh Alexander | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’0″, 205 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 11/4.5/5 | Game line | 12.3/3.8/5 |
| 42.1/32.1/77.3 | Shooting line | 46.4/39.5/81.5 |
| Posh is a career 27% from three, but he’s shooting 37% in Big East play this year, including 9-17 in his last four games. I don’t have the math background to tell you if he has turned over a new leaf or if he’s just on a heater right now. Beyond that, he is what he’s always been: a tenacious defender and solid ball distributor with some ball security issues who shoots just a bit more than he should. | ||
| DJ Davis | Shooting Guard | Quincy Olivari |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’1″, 175 | Measurements | 6’3″, 200 |
| 13.7/3.2/2.4 | Game line | 19.3/5.4/2 |
| 43.4/35.4/96.7 | Shooting line | 43.5/42.9/80.7 |
| Davis is far from a big-body guard, but he’s an excellent finisher, shooting 60% at the rim this year. He’s also got an excellent mid-range game that he gets to almost exclusively on the bounce. He’s not a great three-point shooter, but he has to be checked out there. Mostly he’s just an excellent scorer. He’s the best free throw shooter in the league because he’s the best free throw shooter in the nation. | ||
| Pierre Brooks | Small Forward | Desmond Claude |
| Junior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’6″, 240 | Measurements | 6’6″, 203 |
| 14.8/4/1.1 | Game line | 16/4.2/3.3 |
| 45.4/40.9/67.7 | Shooting line | 41.9/20.8/78.2 |
| Brooks has been a brilliant addition to this team since he came over from Michigan State. He’s built like an ox, but he’s way more of a finess player than his stature would indicate. Half his shots come from beyond the arc, where he’s deadly. He takes almost as many two-point jumpers as he does shots at the rim, which isn’t a recipe for efficiency, though he is good from mid-range. He’s no great shakes defensively or on the glass. | ||
| Jahmyl Telfort | Power Forward | Kachi Nzeh |
| Senior | Class | Freshman |
| 6’7″, 225 | Measurements | 6’8″, 230 |
| 13.5/4.8/3.1 | Game line | 2.5/2.1/0.3 |
| 43.1/33/85.4 | Shooting line | 60.9/0/50 |
| This could be a big matchup. Telfort has been scoring well, but he was 3-16 from the field at Cintas. Despite his size, he’s not a great finisher, hitting just over 52% from the rim. He’s more of a volume guy than an efficient scorer, and making his volume as inefficient as possible is Kachi’s number one job. Telfort’s also not a super great rebounder at either end. Cash from the line though. | ||
| Jalen Thomas | Center | Abou Ousmane |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’10”, 240 | Measurements | 6’10”, 240 |
| 7.6/6/0.8 | Game line | 7/6.3/1.2 |
| 56.5/27.3/76.9 | Shooting line | 47/25/45 |
| Thomas is Butler’s most efficient offensive player, thanks in no small part to shooting 65% from inside the arc in league play. He’s a dominant rebounder by rate on both ends and a very good rim protector. He’s not a dominant rim scorer, but he’s somehow 48-85 from the mid-range. He’s an excellent player who doesn’t get his number called that often. |
Reserves
Butler has a pretty thin bench, placing 314th in the nation in bench minutes. It comes down to basically three dudes, the first of whom is big man Andre Screen. The Bucknell transfer is 7’1”, 255 and does the things you’d expect a big man to do. He averages 5.6/4.6/0.4 per game on 58.4/0/59.3 shooting. His range is minimal, he rebounds really well on both ends, he is a solid rim protector, and he commits 6 fouls every 40 minutes. He’s a good reserve big man as long as he doesn’t get exposed by extended run.
Freshman guard Finley Bizjack – in addition to sounding like a name JP Macura rejected putting on a fake ID – averages 4.3/1.1/0.9 on 40/30.3/80 shooting. He’s a solid scorer from inside the arc and a good free throw shooter. Landon Moore is a sophomore, still a guard, and a bit better of a shooter at 39.2/38/75.8. He also averages basically 4 PPG. He’s a bit more of a defender than Bizjack, but he also commits more fouls in so doing.
Three questions
-What’s the plan without Dailyn Swain? I mean, assuming he’s not playing, which I think is safe. He wasn’t a world-beater the last time these teams played, posting 0/5/2 with a block in 15 minutes, but he has continued to step up into a larger role as the season has worn on. Nemo has shown life after Coach Miller called him out for not playing hard enough; he might need to be on point tonight.
-Will Des still be in attack mode? In games in which Des Claude has taken zero or one shots from behind the arc, the Muskies are 5-1. When he shoots more than that, Xavier is 10-13. Some of that is selection bias, but the long and short of it is that Xavier doesn’t benefit when Des lifts from deep (except that one game where he went 3-6 against Providence for some reason). The sophomore was unstoppable when he put his mind to getting into the paint against Georgetown. Butler is a different beast, but not by orders of magnitude in terms of two-point defense in conference play. Claude needs to get into the paint first, second, and third for Xavier.
-Can Trey Green stay in front of anyone? Xavier’s freshman guard got two minutes against Georgetown, and it wasn’t down to his potential on the offensive end. Instead, he made Rowan Brumbaugh look like Tre Campbell, repeatedly getting run by. It’s tough to repeatedly do anything in just two minutes of run, but Sean Miller and I both noticed that he wasn’t much more than a traffic cone against the Hoyas. Presuming Dailyn Swain isn’t good to go, it’s all hands on deck for X. The Muskies may well need Green’s firepower, but they can’t afford for him to be a free two points on the other end.
Three keys
-Don’t leave it late. Is Butler a great offense? No. Can they hold a late lead? Yes. DJ Davis and Jahmyl Telfort are both top ten in the league in free throw shooting, and Posh Alexander also hovers around 80% from the stripe. It’s tough to keep the ball out of someone’s hands if the opponent wants to get it to him, and it’s almost impossible if the other team has three such guys. There would have to be some high-level shot making if Xavier has to dig themselves out of a late hole.
-Score fast. Butler isn’t exactly the mid-80s Bears on defense, but they’re especially permeable in fast break situations. Xavier doesn’t match up particularly well against Butler or anyone else in the half court thanks to the inability to score inside the arc consistently, but that can be mitigated a bit if the Muskies get out and go on makes or misses. Butler is more comfortable with a moderate pace; Xavier can pinch a bucket or two just by hurrying the ball up the floor. I know this isn’t exactly splitting the atom, but there’s only so much a team in Xavier’s position can do.
-Dominate on the glass. Sasa Ciani is presumably still out, and I’m not counting on Dailyn Swain’s presence. This comes down to Abou Ousmane’s ability to stay out of foul trouble, Kachi Nzeh’s ability to impact the game with his motor, and Gytis Nemeiksa’s ability to play with fire. Nemo in particular has my attention; he went for 7/9/3 with 3 blocks in the Cintas leg of this matchup. If he can replicate that performance at the barn that is Hinkle Fieldhouse, it will be a huge boon for the Muskies.