It’s the most wonderful time of the year!
There’s a lot to like about the way the Xavier basketball program does business, but one of my favorite things is how they approach this game. Nobody is going in front of a microphone and calling it just another game or business as usual. Nobody pretends to downplay what it means to the fans, the school, or the participants. When Sean Miller sits at the table for the press conference and tells you that this is the biggest game of the year, every year, you believe him. This is not some conference matchup propped up by ESPN hype; this is a legitimate rivalry, and it’s the best one in the sport.
Xavier’s path to this game has been neither straightforward nor particularly inspiring. They puttered through a handful of buy games, taking various paths to the same outcome without ever really convincing. After seeing off South Carolina despite giving up a 17-0 run, they made Michigan look like the Showtime Lakers in their only KenPom A game of the season. They made matters worse by having a road win in hand at TCU before frittering it away down the stretch. This week’s 61-point beatdown of Morgan St may have been cathartic, but it did little to rinse off the stench of the team’s failure to perform against real competition.
UC, at least at first glance, represents exactly that. The Bearcats are nestled comfortably within KenPom’s top 20 and have the same lead over Xavier in adjusted efficiency margin as X enjoys over a South Dakota State squad that is 6-4 in D1 games with losses to Northern Colorado and Montana. Peak a little bit closer and some cracks appear. While Xavier’s schedule has been weak, they somehow rank ahead of UC in SoS. The Bearcats have only played one game inside the KenPom top 100, a 68-60 loss to Nova in which it never occurred to them to check Eric Dixon as he dropped 31 on a comical 51% usage rate. The Bearcats come into this game at 7-1, but they have almost as much to prove as Xavier does.
Team fingerprint
It comes as no surprise that success starts on the defensive end for UC, where they’re 13th overall in adjusted efficiency. They use a tough man defense to force teams into bad shots; their defensive EFG% of 42.1% ranks 5th in the county. They’re also elite at keeping opponents off the line, sitting inside the top 20 in that regard. They’re elite at chasing teams off the arc and are almost equally smothering inside and outside the three-point line in terms of shooting percentage. They’re only a tick above average in defensive rebounding and they don’t force an above average number of turnovers, but the quality of the shots they give up is so poor that it basically doesn’t matter.
On offense, they’re inexplicably horrible from the line, ranking near last in the nation with a 59.4% mark. They’re also abysmal at getting there, sitting 358th in free throw rate. Other than that, they’re elite. They never turn the ball over dominate on the offensive glass, and sit 7th in the country in EFG%. They’re inside the top 20 in percentage on both twos and threes. They don’t shoot a ton of threes or play particularly fast, but their incredible accuracy from all over the floor (except the free throw line) makes them the 34th best offense in the country by adjusted efficiency.
Personnel
Starters
| Jizzle James | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
|---|---|---|
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| 6’3″, 205 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 13.6/3.9/5.1 | Game line | 11.1/2.6/4.3 |
| 51.6/33.3/55.6 | Shooting line | 45.6/45.8/90.3 |
| James has done a lot to fulfill the promise of his freshman season so for this campaign. He has elite distribution numbers which are mostly to credit for his gawdy 124 ORTG. He is an efficient scorer when called upon, although his three point shooting is still not great, and his numbers have remained relatively similar in their two high major games so far. |
| Connor Hickman | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
|---|---|---|
| Senior | Class | Junior |
| 6’3″, 200 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 5.9/3.1/1.6 | Game line | 16.8/7.8/2.4 |
| 42.6/26.9/0 | Shooting line | 56.9/28/74 |
| Hickman played his first three seasons at Bradley before making the jump to high major basketball and it is fair to say he has found the transition a rocky one. He profiles as a guy who works from the perimeter and midrange to open up spots for other people, but when his shots aren’t going in, it is hard to see his purpose offensively. He is likely to be usurped in the starting lineup by Dan Skillings at some point, which may help him all told. |
| Simas Lukosius | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
|---|---|---|
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’8″, 225 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 16.3/3.3/3.6 | Game line | 7.8/4.5/2.7 |
| 55.2/52.8/75 | Shooting line | 45.2/46.2/71.4 |
| This guy may have been crafted in a lab somewhere to try to create a player Xavier fans can really wholeheartedly (sports)hate. He has put up the 13th best ORTG in the country so far, but his numbers are far less impressive against the likes of Georgia Tech and Villanova. In those two games, he shot 32% from the floor so he has been a bit of a flat track bully this season. Still, when he gets going he can score the ball with incredible efficiency and it will likely be some combination of Swain and Hunter tasked with keeping him in check and forcing UC to use their other options. |
| Dillon Mitchell | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
|---|---|---|
| Junior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’8″, 210 | Measurements | 6’8″, 220 |
| 11.9/7.1/1.8 | Game line | 8.5/5.1/2.7 |
| 68.8/30/21.1 | Shooting line | 62/16.7/73.3 |
| Mitchell was the 5th ranked recruit in his class coming out of high school and in another era, he would be cashing NBA checks already. He did not make a three in his first two years of college and his shot blocking numbers don’t jump off the page, so he is still in college cleaning the glass at both ends and scoring with pretty high efficiency around the basket. Like James, he didn’t notably fall off in the two high major games so far, although it is fair to say Eric Dixon got the better of their matchup. |
| Aziz Bandaogo | Center | Zach Freemantle |
|---|---|---|
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 7’0″, 235 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 9.1/5.4/1.1 | Game line | 16.4/2.4/2.5 |
| 68.9/0/64.7 | Shooting line | 44/45.6/78.8 |
| Banaogo is out there to be a defensive presence in the lane and lead UC’s assault on the offensive glass. He does both of those things well and, perhaps even more crucially, without getting himself into foul trouble. He was notably ineffective against Villanova, but will be someone Xavier has to dedicate a body to each time a shot goes up if they want to keep UC from getting multiple looks every time down the floor. |
Reserves
Dan Skillings was back against Howard and figures to play in the Shootout. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but his good numbers have come against questionable competition. He was excellent against Arkansas Pine Bluff, had knee surgery, then returned to be mediocre against Howard. Still, he’s a big body guard who can score and get on the glass very well. Day Day Thomas is another guard working himself back after injury. He has shot the three well this season, but been absolutely putrid inside the arc.
Tyler Betsey will most likely be the first big off the bench. He’s effective on the offensive glass, decent on the defensive glass, and is shooting 48% behind the arc in limited attempts. If he’s not the first big off the bench it will be because Arrinten Page is. Page is the only Bearcat to have tried more than 20 free throws (four Musketeers top that mark) and pretty much the only one who is good at them. Page is good rebounding on both ends and a serviceable scorer in the paint. He fouls a lot chasing blocks. Finally comes junior guard Josh Reed as the final Bearcat to average double digit minutes or have played in every game. Nothing about his statistical profile really jumps out, but he’s the kind of guy who does a little bit of everything well enough to keep himself on the court.
Three questions
-How does Xavier handle the ball pressure? UC has good defensive guards and isn’t afraid to deploy them in depth, running one ragged and then swapping the next in to carry on. The Muskies boast some superficially impressive ball security numbers with McKnight and Conwell at the helm, but the team has withered at times against hard ball pressure, most notably down the stretch against TCU and for 40 minutes against Michigan. If they can’t get into their stuff despite the Bearcats’ best efforts to disrupt them, it will be a long day at the office.
-Will someone from the bench produce? Xavier isn’t as beset with injuries as they were last year, but the loss of Lassina Traore has forced an adjustment that has left the squad looking uncomfortable at times. Dante Maddox, Jr. is starting to make inroads as a bench guard, but depth in the front line has been conspicuous by its absence so far this year. John Hugley IV is still struggling to find a stride, and Jerome Hunter’s energy has not been matched by his output. Is this the time for Cam Fletcher to step into the spotlight? Will Hunter or Hugley be able to lock in? The outcome may well hinge on more than one of Xavier’s reserves being able to figure something out.
-Is either of these teams for real? Xavier is 336th in strength of schedule on KenPom; UC is 341st. The Bearcats absolutely have the more impressive superficial numbers, but neither of these teams has done anything of note against anyone who is likely to be playing meaningful basketball in March.
Three keys
-Control the glass. Abou Ousmane had a checkered career at Xavier to say the least, but he was nails in his only Shootout. He set the tone early and absolutely sonned Aziz Bandaogo on his way to 10/11/2 in his most memorable game as a Muskie. Someone is going to have to step up and play a similar role this time around, because UC lives on the offensive boards, and they’ll get the home crowd rolling if they consistently turn misses into second chances into points. If John Hugley IV has another gear, now would be a good time for him to find it.
-Get Zach Freemantle going. Eric Dixon is a big man who can step out and stretch the defense, and he absolutely obliterated UC in their only loss so far this season. Freemantle has a similar offensive profile, and if he can hold his own enough in the paint to run at the five, he gives Xavier a potentially disruptive matchup advantage.
-Push the tempo. Cincinnati is the rare team that can both fly to the offensive glass and have enough bodies back to keep opponents from fast breaking. One way to keep them off of the boards is to punish them for not having enough bodies back when the opportunity arises. It’s no secret that Xavier’s offense wants to play fast, nor is it particularly hidden that UC is elite at slowing the pace on the defensive end. Xavier’s offensive strengths don’t lie in the half court; they have to get out and go if they want to score enough points to win this game.