Xavier hosts DePaul in the most must-not-lose of must-win games.
In a sense, this is the store brand version of the Providence game that Xavier just won. While against the Friars Xavier took on an opponent led by a fairly new coach and a roster decimated by injuries, against DePaul they’ll take on a team in its first year with a new coach and as many if not more injury concerns. The Providence game was at one of the tougher road venues in the league; this game is at home. Providence was against Providence; this weekend, Xavier faces DePaul. There’s a reason the Blue Demons have been a byword for total futility basically since Xavier joined the Big East.
I’d like to pivot into some positivity about DePaul here, but there really isn’t a lot of material to work off of. They started the season 7-0; all of those games were at home against teams outside the KenPom top 150. Their first game that wasn’t hosting a cupcake began with the Demons surrendering a 17-2 run. Watching their record go from 7-0 to 11-14, it’s not clear that they’ve yet recovered. They’re currently 2-12 in the Big East, spared the basement only by the Seton Hall program still waiting to join the NIL era.
This is another game in which there is no win outcome for Xavier. The Muskies are favored by 12.5 points; this is a Q3 game that is at no risk of ever jumping up to Q2. A victory brings only a sigh of relief; a loss renders the rest of the regular season moot.
Team fingerprint
Bad at basketball. Their defense is 10th in the league, kept off the bottom by the ability to keep teams off the line and Seton Hall’s inability to do anything right. DePaul is bad at forcing turnovers and miserable on the defensive glass. They’re fairly easy to score on from inside the arc and downright porous from beyond it; if you like shooting threes, this is a dream matchup. The don’t block a ton of shots, make a lot of steals, or provide effective ball pressure out front. You can run offense on these guys.
Not even Seton Hall’s decimal NIL budget keeps them off the bottom of the league on offense. They’re shooting .409/.293/.697 as a team in conference play, good for an EFG% of 47.4%. Mix that with being 9th in TO rate, 8th in OReb%, and 7th in FT rate and buddy, you’ve got a stew going. If that’s not bad enough, nobody – not even Xavier – gets a higher percentage of their shots blocked. Despite that abysmal showing from deep, they’re taking almost 45% of their shots from behind the arc. I’m out of things to say that don’t make me feel like I’m bullying.
Players
Before we jump in on starters and reserves, we’re going to address DePaul’s injury problems. As though they needed any help at this point, lack of player availability has become an issue for the Blue Demons. The biggest name on the injury report is starting point guard Conor Enright, who had been averaging 7.5/3.3/6.2 per game despite playing through a shoulder injury. He has elected to undergo surgery and will miss the rest of the season.
He’s certainly out, but another couple of very valuable players are questionable for this weekend. The more important of those is forward NJ Benson, who is posting a game line of 8.5/6.1/0.8 this year. He picked up a hand injury against Marquette and is still suffering from soreness and swelling as of the most updated information I could find. Guard Troy D’Amico has missed the last two games due to foot problems; he’s averaging 5.6/2.9/1.7 per game and shoots 40% from deep.
Anyway, that’s the long and short of the injury report for DePaul. The grid you see below is cobbled together from what’s left over. Obviously, this will change if Benson or D’Amico is available.
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Layden Blocker | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| 6’2″, 185 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 8/3/3 | Game line | 9.7/2.4/4.4 |
| 38.5/24.5/78.1 | Shooting line | 41.2/34.8/77.8 |
| There’s something here. He’s seventh in the conference in assist rate, gets to the line a ton, and is posting solid steal numbers. Unfortunately, he’s also turnover prone, 3-19 from deep in Big East play, and susceptible to foul trouble. With DePaul’s injury issues, he’ll definitely get the chance to play through some growing pains. If he can implement the right lessons from them, he’ll develop into a good piece. | ||
| Jacob Meyer | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Sophomore | Class | Junior |
| 6’2″, 192 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 11.1/3.2/0.8 | Game line | 15.6/2.9/2.4 |
| 39/35.6/75.3 | Shooting line | 41.4/38.3/80.8 |
| My man was shooting almost 50% from behind the arc before conference play started; he’s just 11-53 (20.8%) on threes in Big East games. Kind of a step back. He doesn’t do a whole lot else on the offensive end if he’s not making his threes, so he has kind of been a black hole here lately. He’s still second on the team in shots percentage in Big East games, so God bless him for trying, but it has been a slog for a solid couple of months. | ||
| Isaiah Rivera | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’5″, 215 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 9.6/3.2/1.2 | Game line | 8/4.8/1.8 |
| 43.2/41.3/51.7 | Shooting line | 41/42.7/76.9 |
| If Rivera hits his next three point attempt, he’ll be shooting better from deep (37.9%) than the line (37.5%) in conference play. He’s a knockdown shooter off the catch but fairly useless inside the arc. He gets a lot of steals and boards a little, but he’s another guy with a supporting player profile being pushed into a larger role by the circumstances. Still, if left unattended behind the arc, he’ll light you up. | ||
| CJ Gunn | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Junior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’7″, 200 | Measurements | 6’8″, 220 |
| 12.2/3.7/0.7 | Game line | 10.2/5.1/2.3 |
| 42.1/31.1/69.4 | Shooting line | 56/21.4/83.9 |
| Gunn boasts the third highest shots percentage in the league; the “gunner” puns basically write themselves. He doesn’t pass and doesn’t do much on the glass; he’s just out there to lift despite a 96.7 ORtg and a 48.2% EFG%. He is the dictionary definition of a volume scorer, except you won’t find terms like that in the dictionary because that’s pretty niche. If he doesn’t drop 15, it won’t be through lack of trying. | ||
| David Skogman | Center | Zach Freemantle |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’11”, 240 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 6.3/5.1/1.2 | Game line | 15.6/2.9/2.4 |
| 46.9/37.3/61.5 | Shooting line | 41.4/38.3/80.8 |
| I wanted to make a Skogman amongst Skogboys joke here, but this guy has actually been pretty poor in conference play. He’s shooting under 50% from inside the arc, has taken more threes than twos despite shooting under 30% from outside, and been mediocre on the glass. He hasn’t fouled much, but he’s also not been posting much of a statistical footprint as a defender. Big lad, just kind of… there. |
Reserves
Chris Holtmann had been doing a pretty good job of spreading the playing time around, with DePaul getting more than 40% of their minutes off the bench. Obviously that turned into more of an issue of necessity as the season wore on, but that just illustrates how desperate things have gotten that they’re down to basically two bench players.
JJ Traynor is a 6’9″ senior forward from Bardstown, Ky (rest in peace, Coach Ellis) who spent four years at Louisville. He averages 5/3/0.5 per game, doing his best work from inside the arc. He’s a good defender and has a nice offensive profile in low usage, but it’s worth noting that his ORtg in conference play is some 30 points lower than it was in the non-con.
The other player who has cobbled together more than 55 minutes on the season and is sure to be available is Mercer transfer guard David Thomas. In addition to founding Wendy’s, he averages 3.2/0.9/0.8 per game in limited run. He was good for 11 per game at Mercer last year, but he just hasn’t found his feet for DePaul yet. It’s worth noting that 27 of his 57 points this season have come in the last two games, so maybe necessity has helped the Blue Demons unlock him a bit.
If Benson and D’Amico are out, expect to see wing Chris Riddle and big man Theo Pierre-Justin. They’ve combined for 25/23/6 in exactly 100 minutes this year.
Three questions
-Who can play for DePaul? There’s not much to add to what I’ve written above, but I think this will be the determining factor of this game. NJ Benson looked like a problem in the road leg of this matchup before he caught some early foul trouble, and bench depth has in general been the only weapon available to Chris Holtmann. If he’s forced to run with basically the bottom half of a roster cobbled together on the fly throughout the summer, this one might be ugly.
-Is Xavier fully healthy? The opposite of healthy is often injured in the sporting context, but it could also be ill, and there has been some sort of respiratory issues going around X lately. he Ohio Department of Health’s seasonal influenza activity report has shown instances to be above the five-year trend and climbing in southwestern Ohio. Dailyn Swain was struggling with it against Nova, and it could very well explain Marcus Foster’s listless showing at Providence. Get your shots, mask up, take shallow breaths, et c. The season may rely on it.
-Is it time to change the starting lineup? Dante Maddox Jr has been glowing hot and only trending upward of late; Ryan Conwell has distinctly not fit either of those descriptions. Maddox has been effective as a human tinder box off the bench, but for a team that has often lacked urgency at the top, inserting him into the starting five might be the answer.
Three keys
-Play all 40 minutes. Change the record, I know, but this is a continuing theme until something changes. Xavier managed to pull the almost unheard of double of not showing up for the start and leaving before the finish in a win at Providence. Justyn Fernandez lit the Muskies up from the word go and then X cruised home averaging a casual 1 made bucket every 5 minutes for the last 40% or so of the game. I’m at a loss to explain how a team so veteran can just completely zone out for such long portions of basketball, but the inability to finish games especially has cost this crew dearly this season.
-Let it fly. Teams shoot over 38% from deep against DePaul in league games. Xavier shoots over 38% from deep in league games. X is somehow 10th in the league in two-point shooting. Don’t bother trying to square the circle in this one, just chuck it from where you know it works.
-Show up on defense. DePaul has won two Big East games. In one of them, Georgetown sent the Demons to the line 28 times, allowing them to outscored the Hoyas by 16 from the stripe in a five-point win. In the other, Seton Hall let them shoot 68% from inside the arc en route to a 64.9% EFG%, the highest they’ve posted in a non-buy game. Even a moderate amount of resistance is enough to shut this team down; Xavier should have no problem providing more than that.