Win this and I’ll start to believe in spite of myself.
So.
Beating Seton Hall was like stealing candy from a baby, both in that it was easy to the point of being apparently slightly mean-spirited and that it didn’t really do anything that will impress the selection committee. That win in and of itself wasn’t exactly a landmark for the program, but it was enough that a certain segment of the fan base was able to still see the regular season as something other than tune up for a last ditch run at the auto bid.
Despite being 11-2 and having established a modest amount of momentum, Georgetown isn’t really in much better a place than X right now. If the tournament started today, they’d be maybe a coin toss to be included thanks to their -.1 WAB. Their home loss to Notre Dame is solidly in Q3 and any good will built up by rolling Creighton was blunted by just sneaking by Seton Hall despite giving up a 10-0 run to end the game.
Both of these teams come into this game nursing unimpressive resumes and seasons on the brink of evaporation. Someone can keep things ticking over with a win, but the loser is going to face a long and arduous road ahead if they want to be part of the conversation.
Team fingerprint
It all starts on the defensive end for the Hoyas. They were good in the non-conference and have been excellent in the admittedly small sample of Big East play. Their defense inside the arc is incredibly stingy, ranking fifth in the nation in two-point percentage against and blocking a ton of shots. They manage to do both that and force a lot of turnovers (21.2%, 47th) without sending their opponents to the line very much at all. They’re only an average defensive rebounding team and they’ve been fairly permissive around the arc. It all adds up to a top-50 defense that has been top-1 in conference games.
The offense is a bit more hit and miss. They turn the ball over a lot and don’t get to the line very well at all. Their 50% success rate from deep in conference games is propped up by an eye-watering 10-16 performance against Creighton; this is not a good three-point team on the year. They score really well from inside, especially at the rim, where they shoot 65.6%, and are strong on the offensive glass. They’re not a top-100 offense overall, but they aren’t far off.
For a team that gets to the offensive glass so we’ll, they also do a really good job of getting back and keeping opponents out of transition. Just something to keep in mind.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Malik Mack | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| “6’2″”, 175″ | Measurements | “6’0″”, 188″ |
| 12.5/4.4/4.9 | Game line | 10.8/2.6/4.8 |
| 40.5/40.4/70.8 | Shooting line | 46.7/40/83.7 |
| Mack has followed a strong freshman campaign at Harvard with an impressive first season at Georgetown. He’s an excellent shooter from deep and has paired strong assist numbers with excellent ball security. His shooting numbers fall off precipitously against KenPom A/B competition and he can be a bit foul prone in those games. Having missed Georgetown’s first two conference games, he’ll be making his Big East debut tonight. | ||
| Jayden Epps | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Junior | Class | Junior |
| “6’2″”, 190″ | Measurements | “6’4″”, 215″ |
| 15.9/2.2/2.7 | Game line | 16.9/7.7/2.5 |
| 45.9/39/75 | Shooting line | 54.4/26.7/76.4 |
| Epps is listed as day-to-day with a lower body injury, but we’re presuming he’ll play. His shooting from all three levels has massively improved this season and his defense has taken a big step forward. He lit up Xavier twice last year, albeit in two losing efforts. If and how well he plays tonight will be a huge factor in the outcome of this game. | ||
| Micah Peavy | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| “6’8″”, 220″ | Measurements | “6’5″”, 215″ |
| 13.2/4.5/4.2 | Game line | 9.2/4.3/2.4 |
| 45.3/33.3/73.1 | Shooting line | 45/46.8/73.9 |
| Peavy has bounced around a bit and is enjoying his super senior year at Georgetown. He shoots about 4 threes per game and connects on a third of them. He’s much more effective inside the arc, has some solid ball skills, and is an excellent defender in terms of both block rate and steal rate. He is having a very good season so far for the Hoyas. | ||
| Thomas Sorber | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Freshman | Class | Sophomore |
| “6’10″”, 255″ | Measurements | “6’8″”, 220″ |
| 15.7/8.3/2.5 | Game line | 9/4.9/2.1 |
| 56.2/18.2/74.2 | Shooting line | 53.8/25/83.3 |
| Speaking of guys who are having good seasons, Sorber is the difference between Georgetown being a punch line and being an interesting bubble team. He struggled against Creighton for obvious reasons, but he has otherwise been borderline dominant, scoring well in the post and effectively enough in the mid-range, eating the glass at both ends, and protecting the rim without fouling. We might not see a sophomore year out of him. | ||
| Drew Fielder | Center | Jerome Hunter |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| “6’11″”, 235″ | Measurements | “6’8″”, 225″ |
| 8/5.8/1.1 | Game line | 7/3.7/0.9 |
| 55.1/18.2/76.2 | Shooting line | 50.7/55.6/75 |
| Fielder is being overshadowed by Sorber, but he’s quietly having an excellent season in his own right. He’s actually been more efficient than his frontcourt mate, owing to a better OReb%, lower turnover rate, and better shooting percentage from inside the arc. His usage rate is lower and he doesn’t get as many minutes, but he consistently kicks in his averages and doesn’t really have many glaring weaknesses. |
Reserves
Georgetown doesn’t have an especially deep bench. They get just over a quarter of their minutes from reserves, hanging right around 300th in the nation. This number obviously shrinks significantly if Epps can’t go.
What depth they do have is in the form of backup big men Caleb Williams and Jordan Burks. Burks is a 6’9″, 205-pound sophomore who puts up 5.1/3.2/0.5 per game as a more traditional big. He’s a solid offensive rebounder and a good defender, and he shoots nearly 75% from inside the arc. Williams is 6’7″, 230 and only a freshman. He averages 3.8/3.4/1.0 per game on 47.5/38.5/85.7 shooting. He can step out and hit a little bit, but he’s also a strong defensive rebounder.
Deeper still you find Curtis Williams and his 2.7/1.4/0.3. He’s probably more of a wing, but Georgetown’s lack of guard depth sees him playing more as a hybrid 2/3. If we’re lucky, we’ll get a glimpse of freshman guard Kayvaun Mulready as deep guard support. He has played in a statistically meaningless portion of Georgetown’s close games.
Three questions
-Who will be suiting up? Probably not Zach Freemantle or Trey Green, as nothing coming out of Xavier indicates that either of them is close to a return. More pertinently, Jayden Epps is listed as day-to-day for Georgetown. That’s ambiguous, probably purposely so, but his actual status will make a big difference here. If he’s able to go, Georgetown looks a lot like the team that destroyed Creighton. If not, they more closely reset the personnel groupings that needed a game-winning stop to sneak by Seton Hall. That’s a pretty big difference.
-How does Xavier defend Georgetown’s front court? The Hoyas suit up and run with two titanic bigs in Sorber and Fielder from the start, and Peavy has 4 size at the 3. They sit at 14th overall in average height; Xavier is 118th. The Muskies already have problems enough scoring inside and avoiding getting the shots blocked, and they have some meaningful limitations in terms of the size of the bodies they can put in the frontcourt right now. Sean Miller is going to need a good defensive scheme to keep Georgetown’s big men from eating.
-Does Xavier fully lean in to the three? X is a top-10 team from deep in terms of percentage, but they don’t just chuck it from the cheap seats like the #LetItFly era Creighton squads. They have some interesting personnel in the paint, but nobody that you’d stake your season on throwing the ball to asking them to get you a bucket. Maybe it’s time to huck 45 threes and hope for the best.
Three keys
-Collapse the paint. Twice this year, Georgetown has taken more than 45% of their shots from behind the arc; they lost both those games. In the 11 games they’ve gone under that number, they’re undefeated. This team is riding interior scoring, specifically starting with Thomas Sorber. If Xavier forces them out of the paint and they shoot 62.5% from behind the arc as a team like they did against Creighton, you tip your hat and move on. If they win by bullying the ball to the rim, you could be forgiven for being frustrated that X didn’t force a second option.
-Let Dailyn Swain create. I can understand the argument for not living with the ball in the hands of a guy who is shooting 5-18 from inside the arc with three total assists in conference play, but…
Georgetown schemes really well on lead guards, Swain has size and playmaking skills, and he lives at the free throw line. He’s in the top 100 in the nation in free throw rate and the top 2 in the Big East since conference play began. Against a team hurting for bodies and heavily dependent on the starting five, Swain downhill early and often might help Xavier establish control of the game.
-Sprint through the tape. You don’t need me to recount for you Xavier’s disappointing inability to finish close games so far this year. Despite the assertion of another author on this site, I do think Xavier still has a chance to revive their bubble hopes. This game is worth almost half a WAB, as is next time out against St. John’s. Get them both – which I understand is a tall order – and suddenly Xavier has resurfaced and has the chance to regroup for some sort of push through the last seven or so weeks of the season. Maybe a veteran squad coming together and Zach Freemantle getting his Willis Reed on combine to remedy the errors of early in the season and get some big wins across the line. It’s far from a sure thing, but it’s better than nothing. It’s all immaterial if it doesn’t start soon, and there’s no time like the present to set a new course for the campaign.