The first of nine straight must-win games for the Muskies is Georgetown at home.
I’ll confess that I don’t know exactly how KenPom’s conference strength of schedule rating is calculated, but it certainly tracks with my gut feeling when placing Xavier on top of the Big East in that metric by a large margin. The gap between Xavier in first and Butler in second is greater than the gap between Butler in second and UConn in ninth. The first half(ish) of the league schedule has been almost comically difficult for the Muskies.
The flip side of that is that Xavier has some chances to make hay down the stretch. After having 10 KenPom A/B games in the first 11 games of league play, they have just 4 in their final 9. Nothing comes easy in the Big East, but it will at least not be quite like the unrelenting brawl that it has been for the past five weeks or so.
Today’s game is neither tier A nor B according to Pomeroy. Georgetown started the season 12-2; they’re now 14-8. After briefly validating the frankly incomprehensible number of media members who apparently live to do tricks on it for Ed Cooley, they’ve come screaming back to earth in catastrophic fashion since the calendar turned. They’ve compiled -2.0 WAB in the last 8 games and played like the 128th-best team in the nation according to Bart Torvik dot com. That’s not horrible in the context of 360+ D1 teams, but it’s fairly poor for a high major squad.
Team fingerprint
The worst offense in the Big East. They’re 11th in the league in free throw rate, 10th in turnover rate, and 9th in EFG%. They are 4th in OReb%, which is obviously a concern for anyone who has watched Xavier play at all this season. Oh, they’re also 11th in FT%, making 65% of their attempts from the stripe in league play. They don’t play fast or shoot a lot of threes, they just grind Ed Cooley’s take on the flex offense and score less that a point per possession.
The defense has been pretty good, sitting third in the league. They don’t defend the glass very well and they’re willing to let teams shoot from three, but they do a good job of shutting down the paint. They’re fourth in defensive turnover rate and third in EFG%; credit where it’s due, they’ve been pretty solid on the defensive end. They’ve been pretty solid in keeping teams off the line, which is something to keep an eye on for this matchup.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Malik Mack | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| 6’2″, 175 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 13.1/4/4.6 | Game line | 10.3/2.6/4.7 |
| 38.5/35.1/69.8 | Shooting line | 41.7/37.2/77.9 |
| Mack went full Tre Campbell the first time these teams met, having the game of his life in posting 26/2/3 and dragging his team across the line at Georgetown. He has been kind of a chucker since then, averaging 12 PPG on 13 shot attempts per and turning it over 3 times a game. He has needed to take on a bigger offensive load due to Jayden Epps’s inconsistent availability, and he’s suffering for it. | ||
| Caleb Williams | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Freshman | Class | Junior |
| 6’7″, 230 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 4/3.9/0.8 | Game line | 16.3/2.6/2.2 |
| 43.8/32.1/60 | Shooting line | 42.9/39.6/82.1 |
| Williams is not a guard, but he’s being forced to play as one in Epps’s absence. He’s a pretty efficient player in extremely low usage on the offensive end. He’ll find his way to the offensive glass on a regular basis and he has a solid mid-range game, but he’s not a great finisher. He’s somehow shooting 33% from the line in conference play. | ||
| Micah Peavy | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’8″, 220 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 14.4/5.4/3.3 | Game line | 7.9/4.5/1.8 |
| 45.9/32.4/65.5 | Shooting line | 40.7/43.1/73.5 |
| Formerly of TCU and playing in his 150th D1 game tonight, Peavy is the only thing holding this team together right now. He’s threat-adjacent from all three levels without being elite at any of them, but he’s high-usage, relentless, and a plus defender. He’s also an absolute horse, averaging over 38 minutes per game in conference play. | ||
| Drew Fielder | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Sophomore | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’11”, 235 | Measurements | 6’8″, 220 |
| 7.1/5.4/0.9 | Game line | 10/5.1/2.2 |
| 52.7/26.8/68.8 | Shooting line | 55.1/23.1/83.1 |
| I don’t like this guy. While Georgetown was losing at DePaul, he caught a flagrant by targeting DePaul guard Conor Enright’s injured shoulder with a needless chuck heading back down the floor. When he’s not acting out like a punk, he’s a very good rebounder and an incredibly efficient shooter at all three levels. He’s more of a catch and shoot guy than one who will make his own shot, but he has a really refined skill set for a big man. | ||
| Thomas Sorber | Center | Zach Freemantle |
| Freshman | Class | Senior |
| 6’10”, 255 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 14.7/8.9/2.5 | Game line | 16.3/2.6/2.2 |
| 51.6/17.6/75.5 | Shooting line | 42.9/39.6/82.1 |
| The last time a college student did this much for Ed Cooley, his wife made him change jobs (allegedly). Sorber was dominant in Georgetown’s butter soft non-conference slate, but he has slowed down a big in Big East play. He’s an excellent rebounder on both ends, a good defender, and a capable passer for a man his size. He gets about 32 minutes a game in league play and will have the offense running through him while he’s on the floor. |
Reserves
The Hoyas get about a quarter of their minutes off the bench, which is an already low number that gets even worse due to some injury concerns. Freshman big man Julius Halaifonua is out with a broken ankle and veteran guard Jayden Epps has been slowed by hamstring and ankle injuries. Epps has been in and out of the lineup and is averaging 12.3/2/2.2 this year. He’s still shooting 40% in Big East games, but he’s plainly a diminished version of the player who carried the Hoyas much of last year.
Jordan Burks is a 6’9” sophomore averaging 4/2.4/0.3 per game on 58.7/29.4/66.7 shooting. He’s a low-usage, high-efficiency guy getting about 12 minutes per game. He’s a solid rebounder on both ends and can be prone to foul trouble. Louisville transfer Curtis Williams is a 6’6” wing averaging about 4 PPG and shooting just well enough from three to necessitate attention. He had a four-game stretch in January in which he averaged 12.5 PPG; he has averaged 14 minutes per game and scored just 3 total points in the four games since. I’m sure it’s not a coaching issue.
Keyvaun Mulready has surfaced at the guard spots intermittently during conference play. If he ends up being a meaningful part of this game, feel free to come back here to the comments and point out to me what a lame I am for not giving you any information on his game.
Three questions
-How much has Xavier grown since the first game? The first game was Zach Freemantle’s first game back from injury, but that’s not necessarily the reason the Muskies struggled. Their biggest strides as the season has progressed have been on the defensive end, and it has been there that they’ve gotten their biggest wins across the line. With a healthier Freemantle, a more cohesive defense, and (dare I say?) a surgent John Hugley IV, this is a team that should look completely different than it did the first week of the year.
-Where will Georgetown’s production come from? Peavy, Mack, Sorber, and Epps are the only Georgetown players with a usage rate over over 17.5% in conference play; none of them have an ORtg of even 100. Nobody is circulating a condolences card for Georgetown’s injuries, but there’s no question that they’ve been a big part of why this season is tanking. Malik Mack took over late at Georgetown, but he has posted an EFG% of 40% since then. Unless Thomas Sorber goes supernova the way Ryan Kalkbrenner did last time out, the Hoyas might struggle to score.
-Has John Hugley IV arrived? Hugley shot enough like Steph Curry at Creighton that Greg McDermott had to clarify that he wasn’t while he hammed down the camera in a huddle like frickin’ John Halpert. Hugley has done some things that have confused me this year, but he has put up an ORtg of 111.9 in Big East play and dropped 13 and 6 against the Bluejays. This team is crying out for a traditional big man off the bench; if Hugley can fill that role, the Muskies get a lot more flexible.
Three keys
-Win on the glass. Georgetown isn’t good at offense. The only thing they can do is rebound, which just happens to be Xavier’s biggest weakness on a defense that isn’t exactly overburdened with strengths. It would take a lot of pressure off the Big East’s Okayest Defense if they could keep the Hoyas from harvesting extra buckets off of second chances.
-Show up on time. It’s a late game, so no problem there. The Muskies got down 19-6 at Georgetown before they finally got up through the gears. They were definitely the better team from then on out, but NCAA rules indicate that all 40 minutes counts, so the 53-41 run that Xavier went on from getting down 13 wasn’t actually sufficient to accomplish anything other than make the ending more frustrating. Xavier is better, but they aren’t so much better that they don’t have to go out there and be the Hungrier Howies from the word go.
-Force the action. Nobody does better at keeping opponents off the line than Creighton does, but Xavier was able to get Jamiya Neal and Ryan Kalkbrenner into foul trouble and find their way to the line 17 times at the CHI Health Center. Georgetown has been effective in defensive free throw rate, but definitely to a lesser extent. With how thin the Hoyas bench is, if Xavier can get some people into early foul trouble, they’re halfway home and dry.