Welcome to this week’s iteration of the biggest game of the year.
Pressure is a privilege, or so I have been informed.
If that’s the case, then certainly on some level the stress a fan feels during an important game is also a privilege. Xavier could have spared us all any sort of heartburn from now until the Big East tournament if they had closed against Nova the way they’ve closed too many other close games this year. Instead, Ryan Conwell was fully engulfed, the defense got some key stops, and Xavier turned a gutting defeat into another landmark on the road of suffering fans of the program have been traveling this season.
Marquette’s season has intersected with that path once already, when a Stevie Mitchell slide tackle felled Ryan Conwell as a gormless Brian O’Connell looked on, turning a mythic comeback and a signature win into a gutting home loss. That’s not the only time the Golden Eagles have been challenged in league play – Creighton and Georgetown both about kept it within touching distance, and DePaul led late before falling in OT – but Marquette sits atop the Big East at 6-0 this year.
Xavier isn’t close to the bubble right now, but winning two of their next four could put them right back into the hunt. The journey of 1,000 miles (or 1.9 WAB) begins with a single motion. The Muskies have already taken a small step; today would be a giant leap.
Team fingerprint
Marquette shoots the ball like a team that daydreamed through the explanation of what the point of shooting is and was too embarrassed to ask for clarification later on. They’re easily in the top 50 in the nation in three-point frequency, taking nearly 47% of their shots from deep; they’re 204th in three-point percent. Likely at least in part because of this, they’re also abysmal at getting to the line. Probably completely unrelated, they’re a pretty mediocre offensive rebounding team. Their offense is propped up by solid numbers inside the arc and an absolutely elite turnover rate; nobody in the nation turns it over on a lower percentage of their possessions than Marquette’s 12.7%.
Marquette’s defense relies on forcing turnovers. They’re 6th in the nation with a 23.6% TO rate on the defensive end; they’re truly elite. The rest of the defense is just kind of okay. They are good but not great at keeping teams off the free throw line, which is impressive considering how hard they hawk the ball. They’re right about national average in both DReb% and defensive EFG%. Their defense is better by percentage beyond the arc than they are inside it, but they let teams shoot a lot of threes. More than 42% of the shots taken against them have come from behind the arc. If that’s something they allow or something they force is likely a matter of perspective.
Players
Starters
Coming soon!
Reserves
This is a very top heavy team, with just a quarter of the minutes coming off the bench. During league play, only three guys average even ten minutes off the pine.
Tops of these is freshman forward Royce Parham. He’s a load at 6’8″, 230 and averages 5 and 2 on the year. He’s not a great shooter with an EFG of just 48%, but he can hit from outside on occasion and is present on the offensive glass. Helping him out inside is fellow freshman Damarius Owens, who is shooting 3-13/1-5/1-2 in conference and doesn’t grab many minutes.
Zaide Lowery and Tre Norman, a pair of big guardish players, represent the perimeter depth. Lowery is a slightly more effective shooter and turns the ball over way less, but they combine for about 20 minutes per Big East contest and if either of them proves decisive, something has likely gone wrong for one or both teams.
Three questions
-Ryan Conwell revenge game? I know it’s constructed like a statement, but I punctuated it as a question and that’s how it should read. Conwell had his worst game as a Muskie last time out against these guys, with 7 points, a 64 ORtg, 3 turnovers, and what was adjudged to be a clean turnover to seal the game. He has since had some ups and downs, but his most recent game was his highest up, when he battled through foul trouble to go supernova in the second half and see off Nova. If he stays that hot, Xavier is in business.
-Does Zach Freemantle make the difference? Xavier’s oft-injured forward put up 0/0/0 on 0-0/0-0/0-0 shooting in 0 minutes last time these two teams played. In four games since his return, he’s averaging 17.0/7.3/1.8, albeit with 3 turnovers per and some pedestrian shooting numbers. Despite his absence, X held its own on the glass and got Marquette into foul trouble. Could a big game from Frosty put the team on his back?
-Can Xavier limit stupid turnovers? I drew some flak on Twitter last game by pointing out that Jerome Hunter looked like he had been unexpectedly granted control of his own body at times, not least in making four fairly unforced turnovers. That was his worst outing in that regard since making four fairly unforced turnovers against Marquette. The Golden Eagles will force enough turnovers on their own through scheme, defensive effort, and Shaka Smart’s “they can’t call them all” approach to fouling to get the ball. The last thing Xavier needs is to bobble high-low passes or make senselessly soft lobs across the top of the key to help the opponents out.
Three keys
-Make shots. I know I’ve not split the atom here, but this may well be what it comes down to. Against Villanova, Zach Freemantle has three comically clean looks at the rim from the top of the arc and missed them all. Xavier needs him to hit those today. Ryan Conwell and Dante Maddox Jr can’t combine for 2-10 from three like they did at home against Marquette. Xavier will get some looks at the rim, especially from beyond the arc; they have to execute at a high level.
-Break even on the glass. St. John’s absolutely sonned Xavier on the boards, and they’re not the only team that has taken advantage of the Muskies’ weakness in that department. Marquette does not really emphasize that area of the game. They’ll get enough possessions with ball security and takeaways; Xavier can’t afford to give them second chances on top of it.
-Avoid the big run. Evan Miyakawa tweeted out a graph earlier this week showing Xavier can reel off big runs, but they’re also susceptible to surrendering them. Sean Miller was Quick Draw McGraw with a timeout as soon as Xavier got down six against Villanova; he might need a similar approach today. If Marquette gets on top and has the home gym rocking, it might be a long road back for the Muskies.