After battling through a grueling war of attrition to win their side of the bracket, the X Men have earned their right to fight for the title.
Dusty May parlayed his success at Florida Atlantic into a big payday at Michigan, stepping up a level or two in competition in so doing. Other than a little hiccup against Wake Forest, he and his Wolverines are off to a strong start to the season, even taking down former Xavier fan favorite Travis Steele and Miami on the way to a 5-1 start. Like Xavier, they haven’t been much tested, sitting at 220nd in strength of schedule per KenPom.
Of course, that dwarfs the 348th-toughest schedule, which is the one X has played. They Muskies have more or less handled everyone they’ve played, but that’s an honorific that comes with the significant caveat that they haven’t really been challenged. Wake and South Carolina have been respectable opponents, but they’re not exactly making plans in ink for the second weekend, and everyone else X has brought in has been a cupcake.
Both of these teams have real aspirations this season, and both haven’t made much headway towards demonstrating that they’re for real. This represents the best chance either of these squads has had so far at hanging up a win that could make a difference to the selection committee.
Team fingerprint
Big. Xavier is 182nd in average height; Michigan is 8th. They start two seven footers and bring 6’10” and 6’8” off the bench early on. That’s four dudes bigger than anyone other than Zach Freemantle in Xavier’s starting lineup. These are some large dudes.
They’re 42nd in the nation in ORtg and in some ways, they get there exactly how you’d expect. They are elite on the offensive glass and on two-point shots, ranking 11th and 6th in the country (respectively) in those two categories. Rather than exploit those advantages too heavily, they instead shoot almost 47% of their shots from deep, just outside of the top 50. They’re a good three-point shooting team at 36.9%, but that’s not elite on the young season. Their offensive Achilles heel is turnovers; they’re 346th nationally with a 22.9% TO rate. Like Xavier, they try to play really fast on offense.
The defense is 23rd nationally, thanks largely to forcing bad shots and turnovers. They’re 16th in both EFG% and TO rate, which is a nice bit of symmetry that makes this paragraph slightly easier for me to type. They play a smothering brand of ball, keeping assist rates low with pressure and not allowing a lot of looks from behind the arc. Despite being enormous, they’ve been really bad on the defensive glass, sneaking just inside the top 300 in the country in DReb%.
Personnel
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’3″, 195 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 13/2.3/4.2 | Game line | 12.3/2.2/4.8 |
| 54.2/47.8/75 | Shooting line | 50/50/88.9 |
| An Auburn transfer, Donaldson is one of the most efficient players in the nation. He can score from all three levels and is a career 42% shooter from three. He has been distributing really well this year and rarely turns the ball over. He doesn’t hunt shots much, but the fact that he leads the team in scoring despite being seventh in shots% speaks to his efficiency. | ||
| Nimari Burnett | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Junior | Class | Junior |
| 6’5″, 200 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 10.8/3.2/1.2 | Game line | 17.3/1.8/2.2 |
| 55.8/50/50 | Shooting line | 47.1/47.8/81.8 |
| This guy, on the other hand, hunts shots a ton. He doesn’t really use possessions except to take catch-and-shoot threes or drive to the guts of the defense. He also has solid defensive stats, though he has been blunted by foul trouble a bit. He’s off to a weirdly slow start from the free throw line, but I’m sure that will come around. He doesn’t get there often. | ||
| Roddy Gayle Jr. | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’5″, 205 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 13/3.7/3.3 | Game line | 7/4.3/3 |
| 53.8/36.8/75 | Shooting line | 45.7/46.2/80 |
| The one spot in the starting lineup where Xavier has a size advantage, thanks to Foster’s 10 extra pounds of pure muscle. Gayle is an OSU transfer who has been pretty efficient at getting the ball into the bucket this season. He’s a relentless slasher, with two thirds of his twos coming at the rim, where he’s an excellent finisher. He doesn’t take a high volume from three, but he’ll make you pay if you ignore him. He had 20 in Michigan’s win over Va Tech on Monday. | ||
| Vladislav Goldin | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| 7’1″, 250 | Measurements | 6’8″, 220 |
| 7.7/4.7/0.8 | Game line | 9.2/5.7/2.7 |
| 53.1/0/60 | Shooting line | 61.3/0/81 |
| Goldin has the general physical characteristics of something you might summon Beowulf to fight. His scoring range is about the same as his wingspan, but he’s excellent on the offensive glass and a very good rim protector. He draws a lot of fouls but isn’t very good from the line. | ||
| Danny Wolf | Center | Zach Freemantle |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 7’0″, 250 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 9.3/9.2/2.8 | Game line | 15.7/7.5/2.7 |
| 48.9/14.3/66.7 | Shooting line | 55.9/41.7/79.3 |
| Is he gigantic? Yes. Does he turn the ball over way too much and waste a lot of possessions hucking threes despite almost always having a size advantage on his defender? Also yes. Wolf has been crushing the glass at both ends and playing solid defense in the middle of the floor, but 27 turnovers and 12 missed threes in just 6 games have really combined to drag down his efficiency numbers. He’s a refined offensive player who moves around the floor a lot; when it clicks, he’s trouble. |
Reserves
This is probably the deepest bench Xavier has seen all year, with 35% of the team’s minutes coming from outside the starting lineup.
I don’t know where he stands in war, peace, or the hearts of his countrymen, but first off the bench is 6’10” sniper Sam Walters. He’s only 200 pounds and he boards like a shooting guard, but he’s averaging 7.8/2/1 on .533/.458/1.000 shooting this year and is a career 40% shooter from beyond the arc. He doesn’t offer a ton else on either end of the floor – though he does block the occasional shot and stays out of foul trouble – but his three-point prowess is a huge asset to the team.
Freshman guard LJ Cason comes off the pine to average 7.2/1.7/1.7 in 14 minutes per game. He isn’t a deep threat, but he’s a slasher who finishes really well at the rim and is money from the free throw line. The other bench big is 6’8”, 230-pound senior Will Tschetter. He is worth 6.3/1.7/0.5 every time out and shoots .583/.385/.625. Dude was 245 in the program last season; good on him for trimming down. That’s probably good for his long-term health. Also, he was 28-54 from deep last year and is a career 44% three-point shooter.
With apologies to Justin Pippen, the last meaningful bench piece is wing Rubin Jones. He spent four years at North Texas before transferring in this offseason. He averages 5/2.2/1.8, can play a little bit of point forward, and is a good defender. His TO rate is up and his shooting numbers are down as his adjusts to high-major ball.
Three questions
-Who breaks better? Both of these teams have average offensive possession lengths well under 16 seconds, and both are elite at slowing opponents down on the defensive end. These are offenses that depend on getting a lot of production from transition points and defenses that focus on cutting off those opportunities. If someone can break through and keep themselves from being forced into half court ball, they’ll have a leg up on the opponent.
-How do the frontcourts shake out? How do you like Dailyn Swain guarding someone 5 inches taller and 30 pounds heavier than himself? However you feel about that, there’s probably an equal and opposite concern at the other end when you imagine Vlad Goldin or Danny Wolf trying to stay in front of Swain off the bounce. Someone is going to force an adjustment from the other side in terms of big man personnel and defensive strategy or it’s going to be a long night of bully ball post ups or perimeter blow-bys.
-How is the three-point shooting going to look? Neither of these teams lit the nets on fire from beyond the arc in the opening game, and neutral-site MTEs are notorious for cooling down hot shooters. Xavier adjusted by crashing the offensive glass and generally eschewing the arc against South Carolina; Michigan went with a more-is-more approach, taking more than half their shots from deep despite ending the day at just 29% on threes. If they’re willing to bomb themselves out of the game tonight, Xavier may well be willing to let them.
Three keys
-Seal off the glass. Michigan is 11th in the nation in OReb% and Xavier is 11th in the nation in DReb%. If the lids remains on the bucket for the Wolverines, they’re going to count on harvesting some extra possessions from second chances. If the Muskies can keep that from happening, they’ll have shot off a real source of scoring for the opponent.
-Secure the ball. Not too much to say here. Michigan forces a ton of turnovers and converts those into quick points on the other end. Limit second chances, limit fast breaks, make Michigan score in the half court, and Xavier should be in pretty good shape.
-Get some bench production. I’m specifically looking at John Hugley IV here. He’s the closest thing Xavier has to an answer for Michigan’s size, and a little bit more bench scoring in general would really help take the load off of Xavier’s top five. Trey Green and Dante Maddox Jr rely on three-point shooting that seems to be a potential sticking point in Fort Myers; if Hugley and Jerome Hunter can show up and cobble together some meaningful minutes, that will be a boon for Xavier’s chances.