Xavier is playing like garbage recently. That shouldn’t matter against the Bears, but…
Things are not going well right now. That applies to the weather, the world at large, and, far more specifically, Xavier basketball. Xavier was mullered by Michigan, struggled to beat a horrible South Carolina State team, and then ceded the first half to TCU, stormed back, then threw the game away anyway. It was a microcosm of a season that is struggling to stay on the rails.
The good news, I hope, is that things get slightly easier on December 10th. Morgan St is really, really bad. Like, one win over D1 competition and that was NJIT bad. Like lost to Mercyhurst (who had never won a D1 game before) kind of bad. The Bears are the kind of team that a decent Xavier squad swats aside by 30 while we spend the last five minutes hoping a walk-on gets to live his dream. So this will probably a nail-biter.
Team Fingerprint
Is being really bad at basketball a fingerprint? Morgan State’s offense is their “strength” and it’s 319th in the nation. They have the lowest three point attempt ratio in the nation, probably because they shoot an appalling 26.2% from behind the arc. They do get on the offensive glass well, but they have to because they also are 190th in the nation on shooting inside the arc. They’re also 347th in the nation in assists to field goals made. I’m a little morbidly curious to see what this offense looks like.
Ah, but their defense… is somehow even worse. Central Penn, an NCCAA DII school, scored 70 against them. Bowling Green, who has the 218th offense in the nation, scored 102 in just 76 possessions. Despite this, Morgan State pushes the pace on both ends for reasons best known to Kevin Broadus. Literally the highest number on the Bears defensive readout is free throw percentage allowed, where they are 150th in the nation at 70.5%. Maybe they make funny noises when the opponent shoots or something.
Players
| Wynston Tabbs | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
|---|---|---|
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’3″, 195 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 16.8/3.7/2.4 | Game line | 11.1/2.4/4.6 |
| 45.8/26.4/95.3 | Shooting line | 43.8/43.5/89.7 |
| Tabbs is in his 5th year of college basketball and has topped 20 games in a season just once in that time. He is a pure volume scorer and has reached double figures in every game this season, although rarely with much efficiency. If he gets hot the way that Kavion McClain or Jarvis Walker or Omar Croskey did, it could be another buy game that is too close for comfort. Either way, he will get his shots up. |
| Rob Lawson | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
|---|---|---|
| Junior | Class | Junior |
| 6’0″, 175 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 8.6/2.5/2.8 | Game line | 16.6/2.4/2.3 |
| 45.7/54.2/78.8 | Shooting line | 43.1/44.2/77.8 |
| Lawson doesn’t use the ball a lot on offense, but his three point shooting has helped him be a contributor at that end anyway. He struggles with turnovers from time to time, which limits his effectiveness as a distributor, and is not overly active on the boards or in the passing lanes. He’s currently shooting 13% better from behind the arc than from inside it, so it’s safe to say he’s a bit of a conundrum. |
| Amahrie Simpkins | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
|---|---|---|
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’4″, 190 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 12.8/4.8/2.2 | Game line | 6.7/4.4/2.8 |
| 61.3/25/46.9 | Shooting line | 41.2/40/71.4 |
| Simpkins has the distinction of being the only player in the roster with a Box Plus/Minus that isn’t a negative number, with a mark of 0.0. He gets to the offensive glass well for his size and is by far the team’s most efficient starter on the offensive end. |
| Will Thomas | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
|---|---|---|
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’6″, 200 | Measurements | 6’8″, 220 |
| 12.2/2.8/1.8 | Game line | 8.4/4.8/2.6 |
| 46.6/66.7/74.3 | Shooting line | 62.8/16.7/75 |
| Thomas has spent all 4 years at Morgan State and is coming off a year in which he was named 2nd team All-MEAC. So far this year basically all of his numbers are down except for 3pt% and he is shooting less and using fewer possessions as well. Morgan State will be hoping he can return to form, Xavier will be hoping he doesn’t do so tonight. |
| Marland Harris | Center | Zach Freemantle |
|---|---|---|
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’10”, 210 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 4/3.9/0 | Game line | 15.7/7.6/2.2 |
| 48.3/0/54.5 | Shooting line | 55.1/22.7/73.7 |
| Harris blocks shots decently well, but offsets that by fouling at a high rate and not scoring the ball frequently or efficiently. He’s shooting 36.4% from the floor against DI competition this year and has yet to make more than 2 field goals in a DI game. His rebounding rates are good, but again his foul trouble limits his ability to really contribute much in that area as well. |
Reserves
Morgan State has used a variety of lineups this season with 7 different players starting multiple games. One guy who has yet to start is guard Kameron Hobbs, who is 4th on the team at 8.8 points per game. He plays mostly off the ball and is mostly a spot up shooter who is currently sitting at 29.3% from deep. Kiran Oliver is a 6’5” wing who leads the team in ORTG and is shooting 70% from inside the arc in addition to providing the second best offensive rebounding rate on the team. He is second only to 6’9” center Daniel Akitoby, who like Harris can block shots and rebound well but also like Harris can’t keep himself out of foul trouble.
Three questions
– Can this team bounce back? Three poor performances on the spin is concerning. Xavier has a huge stretch coming up. They need to do something to give fans, and themselves, some reason to hope they can navigate it. Morgan State is very bad. This needs to be a beating.
– Where has Xavier’s offense gone? TCU is the only one of the three recent games where X has scraped over a point per possession, and that was only 1.07. They’ve shot 35%, 27%, and 32% behind the arc in those games. Zach Freemantle hasn’t made one in almost a month. All of that has meant that X simply cannot score at a high level. The high-powered attack is still going at a frenetic pace, it just isn’t scoring well.
– What is the rotation? The same guys are going to start, we know that. What happens after that? In games where Trey Green plays double digit minutes he’s had an ORtg over 130 in three of four. He played four minutes last game. Dante Maddox played a minute against SC State, then 20 against TCU. Coach Miller praised him, but he had the first of Xavier’s three costly turnovers. John Hugley was excellent against Wake and has nine points and eight turnovers since. The bench is mess, Coach Miller needs to sort it.
Three keys
– Focus: The Shootout is next, but Xavier isn’t good enough to look past anyone at this point. Them actually showing up and starting like they mean to continue would be refreshing. Please, just beat the Bears before the Bearcats.
– Dominate the glass: Morgan St is bad on the glass on both ends. Xavier is far better on defense and should have the size on offense. There’s no reason this should turn into something like the last game where the opponent piles up second chance opportunities.
– Do something to inspire hope: Does anyone see a tournament team here? Does anyone think the Shootout will be close? Anyone seeing a challenge for a Big East title? Of course not. The great thing about college basketball, though, is that a hot streak is just a game away. Put a 50 piece on these dudes and all of the sudden things will be looking up.