It’s a long road from here to anywhere respectable for Xavier, and it has to start with a win in this game.
You’re either going to get tired of reading this or wish for the days when you were seeing it in most previews, but this is a game Xavier can ill afford to lose. The Muskies probably need 13 conference wins to even be in the conversation in March, and dropping the first two by a combined margin of two points at the end of regulation has served to both underscore the close-but-not-quite nature of this season and leave X in quite the hole.
Seton Hall has not been close at all this year. The Pirates sit at 5-8 with 4 losses outside of the KenPom top 100 and 5 losses in Q3/4 games. They’ve ridden the momentum of an NIT win to a catastrophic crash and burn from the word go this season. There are Hall fans who still assert that Kyle Neptune isn’t the problem, but he sure as heck hasn’t looked like the solution. It almost goes without saying that this is a Q4 game for Xavier.
The Muskies are looking to cobble together something resembling a successful season from the wreckage of losing two starting frontcourt players for the second year on the trot. They can’t really take any positive steps today, but a loss here all but assures the rest of the regular season becomes immaterial.
Team fingerprint
I’m going to get the bad out of the way first: Seton Hall’s offense is a catastrophe, slotting in at 298th in the KenPom. The reason for this is fairly simple: they can’t shoot at all. They’re an absolute dumpster fire from two-point range (352nd in the nation) and the line (356th). They’re about average nationally at 33% from behind the arc, but they don’t shoot from deep with nearly the frequency that it would take that modest number to redeem the whirlwind of misery they generate every time they throw the ball in the direction of the rim. They’re a reasonable offensive rebounding team, ranking 80th nationally with an OReb% of 33.8%. That really just gives them another opportunity to miss.
Their defense is actually really good, well inside the top 50 in the nation. They’re absolutely elite at forcing turnovers and excellent on the defensive glass. They can be a little foul prone and can give up some decent shots, sitting about national average in EFG% and free throw rate as a defense, but this side of the ball is definitely their strength. There’s a sense in which the effort they put in to defend despite being abject on offense is admirable.
The cherry on top of the whole thing is their pace of play, which is absolutely glacial. They rank in the 330s for possession length on both sides of the ball. If you like a team that misses a ton of shots, forces a lot of misses, doesn’t play in transition and doesn’t let its opponents run, Seton Hall is the crew for you. I have no idea why you would like that brand of basketball though.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Garwey Dual | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| “6’5″”, 205″ | Measurements | “6’0″”, 188″ |
| 3.9/1.4/2.7 | Game line | 11.2/2.7/4.7 |
| 40/12.5/56 | Shooting line | 49/42.9/90.2 |
| Here’s a guy you might recognize! Once touted as the next big thing for Ed Cooley at Providence, Dual has had trouble finding his feet at the D1 level. On his second Big East school in two years, he has developed into an excellent defender and decent distributor, but he couldn’t hit the ocean if he fell out of a boat as a shooter. That and a bit of a turnover issue really supress his value. | ||
| Dylan Addae-Wusu | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Senior | Class | Junior |
| “6’4″”, 237″ | Measurements | “6’4″”, 215″ |
| 8.7/3.8/2.8 | Game line | 16.9/7.7/2.5 |
| 34.3/31/59 | Shooting line | 54.4/26.7/76.4 |
| Here’s a guy you might recognize! After three seasons at St. John’s, this stout lad is taking a final go-round at the Hall. Like Dual, he is really struggling to find his stroke from anywhere on the court. He’s not as valuable as a defender and fouls a bit more, but he is demonstrably present on the glass, especially on defense. | ||
| Isaiah Coleman | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| “6’5″”, 191″ | Measurements | “6’5″”, 215″ |
| 13.9/5/1.3 | Game line | 8.8/4.2/2.4 |
| 43.5/37.5/80 | Shooting line | 43/46.5/78.9 |
| Seton Hall is Coleman’s first Big East team, and he is their most efficient offensive player. He’s a good shooter from deep in somewhat low volume and solid inside the arc, but his real offensive gift is his knack for getting to the line. In 2 Big East games this year, he has attempted a staggering 20 free throws. He rarely turns the ball over and – like most of his teammates – generates a lot of steals. | ||
| Yacine Toumi | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| “6’10″”, 215″ | Measurements | “6’8″”, 220″ |
| 5.4/3.3/0.7 | Game line | 8.7/4.9/2.2 |
| 40.3/33.3/41.4 | Shooting line | 54.9/28.6/80.5 |
| Toumi has the statistical profile of a guy who was brought in to provide depth and has been forced into a bigger role. He’s not especially efficient from near the rim for a big man, is only an okay rebounder and rim protector, and has a tendency to get into foul trouble. He’ll give the Hall 20 or so minutes a game and can do just enough from deep to merit more than token attention, but if he lights you up, you deserved to lose. | ||
| Emmanuel Okorafor | Center | Jerome Hunter |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| “6’9″”, 225″ | Measurements | “6’8″”, 225″ |
| 2.2/3.3/0.2 | Game line | 6.6/3.7/0.8 |
| 43.5/0/20 | Shooting line | 48.5/42.9/70.8 |
| This guy is, by rate, a really, really good offensive rebounder. Unfortunately, none of his other stats do much to support that number. He fouls too much, somehow posts a true shooting percentage under 40, and has 2 assists all year. He’s going to college for free. |
Reserves
If you thought the explanation for that starting lineup was Seton Hall having some sort of secret weapon off the bench, well, you’re kind of right. Guard Chaunce Jenkins gives the team 11.5/4.2/1.5 per outing. He’s a bit of a volume scorer with a 35.5/38.2/80 shooting line, but volume scoring is better than no scoring at all. If you couldn’t tell by that line, he does most of his damage from deep.
After that there are no more secrets and precious few weapons. Scotty Middleton offers 5.6/2.1/0.9 as a backup wing. He’s an excellent defender if you can overlook his tendency to slap everything that moves, which so far officials have not. Prince Aligbe gives 4.8/3.2/0.5 per game off the bench as a big. He’s an excellent defensive rebounder, but his shooting line of 37.7/11.1/56.3 is a travesty that has cost him his starting job and most of his minutes.
Further down the bench, a game line of 1.9/2.7/0.4 belies the fact that Godswill Erheriene started the first eight games of the year at center. The freshman plays solid defense and is good on the glass at both ends, but a usage rate of just 11% indicates he’s completely absent on offense.
Three questions
-Can Xavier get enough shots up? Seton Hall’s defense basically lives and dies off of forcing turnovers. While Xavier’s offense has been strong in ball security, it has been a serious issue in most of their losses, especially against Michigan and Texas Christian. The Michigan comp is especially troubling, as their defensive plan is fairly similar to Seton Hall’s. The Hall can be had, especially from deep, if X can get the ball in the air. It’s just a question of making that happen often enough.
-Can the Muskies work at all inside the arc? If your car exploded 1 in every 5 times you tried to start it, how many times would you crank it over? I only ask because Xavier is getting 20.9% of their two-point shots blocked so far in Big East play. That number is obviously worst in the conference. Despite their season-long struggle to beat the first man with shots inside the arc, they’re still outside the top 200 in three-point frequency. That number is slowly trending up after the Freemantle injury, but there is a strong case to be made that it needs to climb a lot faster. Getting that many shots thrown in a catastrophe for X.
-Will Seton Hall score enough for it to matter? The Hall has just the one strength on offense, namely getting to the glass. Unfortunately for Pirates fans, that’s also the strongest point of Xavier’s defense. There’s not a whole lot else the Hall does consistently well on that end of the floor, and it might (and often has) undermine any of their other efforts. There’s every chance this one turns into a dire 57-49 slog.