The must-not-losiest of all must-not-lose games.
Seton Hall is bad. A more coarse writer might even say they suck. They already had 2 losses on the year before they played their first game outside of Q4. They somehow beat Virginia Commonwealth by a bucket on a neutral floor – one of their two wins in the top two quads – and then went right back to being awful for three consecutive months. Where Xavier is now, this is a game with no upside. A win doesn’t move the needle at all; a loss is resume cyanide.
Seton Hall’s other Q1/2 win was a week ago against UConn. The Huskies didn’t exactly come in riding high, but they are the reigning two-time national champs and they are still led by the best coach in the entire sport [citation needed]. Imagine their surprise then when they had the Pirates down 7 in the last minute of regulation and somehow managed to lose the game in overtime. Dan Hurley hasn’t been that bad since he found out that three-game MTEs aren’t a violation of federal law.
All that to say that Xavier is in a position more precarious that it might appear at first. Seton Hall has proven time and again this year that they are the very definition of beatable; they’ve also shown the ability to floor a team that overlooks them. Xavier has the biggest game of their season coming up next against Creighton. The only way that’s not true is if they stumble over this hurdle, rendering the outcome of that game entirely moot.
Team fingerprint
It brings me no joy to report to you that, statistically speaking, Seton Hall is garbage on both ends of the floor. Let’s start on offense, where they’re tenth in the eleven-team Big East.
The main problem is that they can’t shoot. They’re dead last with a sincerely dreadful 43.5% EFG%. Over the entire season, only two (2) teams in the country are worse. They shoot 29% from deep and 43% on twos. They don’t shoot a lot of threes, but that hardly makes a difference. Their offensive flow is awful; they’re last in the league in assist rate and eighth in turnover rate. They’re good on the offensive glass and in getting to the line, but you can’t board and free throw your way out of being that bad at shooting.
Defensive categories in which Seton Hall is last in the Big East: defensive efficiency, EFG%, OReb%, free throw rate, two-point percentage, and three-point percentage. They’re tenth in three-point rate and assist rate. They’re third in the league in turnover rate, but if they don’t force you to cough the ball up, they basically can’t provide even token resistance. I grew up in an era in which Seton Hall was a fun, scrappy team, and you’ve gotta be about kindergarten age not to remember them as a perennial tough out. Watching them nosedive into a conference-wide buy game is kind of sad.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Garwey Dual | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| “6’5″”, 205″ | Measurements | “6’0″”, 188″ |
| 5/1.6/3 | Game line | 10/2.4/4.4 |
| 40.2/24/60 | Shooting line | 42.2/35.4/79.3 |
| Once the prize of a recruiting class at Providence, Dual is trying to find some production to match his lofty rankings as a recruit. You wouldn’t necessarily call him a point, but necessity and the highest assist rate on the team slot him here. As bad as he can be offensively, he is an excellent defender; he can guard 1-4 and has the length and athleticism to create chaos. | ||
| Jahseem Felton | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Freshman | Class | Junior |
| “6’5″”, 195″ | Measurements | “6’4″”, 215″ |
| 4.4/1.5/0.6 | Game line | 15.4/2.9/2.5 |
| 34.8/36/83.3 | Shooting line | 42.3/38.2/80.8 |
| As you can probably tell from the statistics provided, Felton is not a specifically dangerous offensive player. His usage rate is just a hair over 17% and his superficially impressive three-point percentage is on just nine makes all year. He can be turnover prone and he has a single-digit assist rate. In an ideal world, he’d be developing, not starting. | ||
| Isaiah Coleman | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| “6’5″”, 191″ | Measurements | “6’5″”, 215″ |
| 15.2/5.3/1.6 | Game line | 8.2/4.7/1.8 |
| 38.2/33/79.6 | Shooting line | 40.8/42/79.2 |
| The team’s best offensive player and there’s really no debate. He’s a bit of a volume scorer, but the Pirates aren’t exactly spoiled for choice without him. He’s not a great finisher, but he’s got decent mid-range game and he’s certainly persistent. He can be disruptive on the defensive end as well; for a good team, he’d be an excellent supporting piece with a bright future. | ||
| Prince Aligbe | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Junior | Class | Sophomore |
| “6’7″”, 228″ | Measurements | “6’8″”, 220″ |
| 7.6/3.4/0.5 | Game line | 10.5/5.2/2.6 |
| 46.1/6.7/69.8 | Shooting line | 56.7/23.5/83 |
| Aligbe is a solid defender, but he might have his work cut out for him with Swain. Dailyn dropped 13 on just 7 FGA last time these two teams played and he has only gotten better since. Aligbe is one of the few Seton Hall players growing into this season, as his ORtg of 102.2 in conf is better than his overall mark by 8 points. He’s a solid finisher around the rim who can be safely left unattended basically anywhere else. | ||
| Godswill Erheriene | Center | Zach Freemantle |
| Freshman | Class | Senior |
| “6’9″”, 214″ | Measurements | “6’9″”, 227″ |
| 2.7/2.8/0.3 | Game line | 15.4/2.9/2.5 |
| 55.4/0/29.2 | Shooting line | 42.3/38.2/80.8 |
| Last time these teams played, he came off the bench to foul out in nine minutes. He has started the last eight games, averaging 4 and 3 in so doing. He’s shooting 30-49 at the rim this year and 1-7 from anywhere else; his range is legitimately less than his wingspan. He’s present on the offensive glass and will block some shots, but he’s mostly a passenger. |
Reserves
This roster is a mess. The current NLI landscape has changed the way college basketball works, and the ancillary system of Seton Hall’s basketball program seems to have been wholly unprepared to respond. I don’t know how good a coach Shaheen Holloway actu is at this level, but he deserves a fairer opportunity to demonstrate that than the one he has been given. Richer programs have pillaged his roster; if that trend continues unabated, Seton Hall might as well fold the program.
Anyway, their best player off the bench is guard Dylan Addae-Wusu, a refugee from Rick Pitino’s takeover of St. John’s. He averages 9.8/3.3/2.8 per game and has put up excellent A:TO numbers in conference play. He is a strong defender, but he fouls a lot, and that .365/.301/.671 shooting line gives back a lot of the defensive work he does.
OSU transfer Scotty Middleton is averaging 6.2/2.5/1, perhaps none more noteworthy than the last two he tapped in against UConn to win the game. When he’s not doing hero stuff, he’s a career 42% shooter from deep and a solid defender all over the floor.
Big man depth comes from Yacine Toumi and – if he’s healthy – Emmanuel Okorafor. Toumi is good on the defensive glass and fouls a lot. Okorafor is great on the offensive glass and fouls a lot. They’re both bad at free throws and generally not threatening on the offensive end.
Three questions
-Will depth make a difference? Xavier has one of the thinnest benches in the country, getting fewer than 25% of their minutes from the reserves. Seton Hall is the exact opposite, getting more than 40% of their minutes off the pine. The advantage of having more guys is blunted significantly by the quality of the players on offer. If there’s a way to leverage the depth into something actually beneficial, Shaheen Holloway hasn’t cracked the code just yet.
-Can this be a get-right game for Ryan Conwell? In the month of February, Conwell is averaging under 12 PPG and shooting 8-27 (29.6%) from behind the arc. If Xavier wants to make a run at something meaningful down the stretch, they’ll need him to be able to provide a consistent threat from deep. He went for 22 on 7-12/3-7/5-6 shooting against the Hall at Cintas; something similar today would be a relief to see.
-Does Seton Hall have another surprise in them? Every time the Pirates win this year is a little surprising, but maybe none moreso than the stunner they sprung on UConn last weekend. That was almost indisputably a huge blessing for Xavier, because anyone inclined to look past this game to the Creighton matchup is on notice that they do so at their own peril. Xavier is the better team here; they’ve just gotta stay on guard against anything weird happening.
Three keys
-Finish the game. DePaul was home and dry against Seton Hall, leading by 11 with 4 to play and holding more than 96% of the win probability; they let the Pirates finish on a 14-3 run to force the overtime in which Seton Hall would win the game. UConn was home and dry against Seton Hall, leading by 7 with 45 seconds to play and holding more than 99% of the win probability; they let the Pirates finish on an 8-1 run to force the overtime in which Seton Hall would win the game. If Xavier has this one in hand, they’ve gotta sprint through the tape. That hasn’t been a strong suit of this team.
-Force the whistle. Seton Hall fouls a lot, even at home. Xavier is chock full of players who are borderline elite at getting to the line. I know the Pirates love to let teams chuck from distance, but X can win this game via a parade to the free throw line. It’s not sexy basketball, but all the Muskies need is for it to be effective.
-Keep the tempo high. Obviously Xavier is one of the best fast break teams in the country, but they also benefit from a game of more possessions as the better team in this matchup. Seton Hall’s two conference wins were at 62 and 57 possessions at the end of regulation; only one of their thirteen losses has had 62 or fewer possessions, their putrid 60-46 loss at Georgetown. Truth tends to out the more possessions are played; Xavier should keep the pedal pinned today.