Xavier hasn’t played a single game outside of Cintas this year; they’ve got a chance to play a couple that will help in March this week.
It’s no secret that Xavier hasn’t been significantly tested this year. Wake started the season in the mid-40s in the KenPom; with one more mediocre performance, they’ll drop out of the top 100 entirely. Other than them, the Muskies have done nothing but harvest wins off of low major teams and look towards tougher fights ahead.
South Carolina should, theoretically, offer them that. The Gamecocks haven’t been off to a particularly inspiring start of their own. They demonstrated why Xavier scheduled so soft early on by losing their home opener to a mediocre North Florida team. They righted the ship against buy game level opponents in their next three buy games, but their only test against someone who might garner at-large consideration was a road trip to Indiana in which they gave up a 17-1 run that began before the first media timeout and never again meaningfully challenged.
If Xavier wants to reach the level to which they aspire this season, they can take a huge step that way this week. With Michigan the only other team in the Beach Division inside the KenPom top 50, the tournament is there for the taking for the Muskies. It starts with the best opponent they’ve seen yet in the first game away from home all season.
Team fingerprint
What kind of conclusions do you want to draw after just five games? Lamont Paris’s squad hasn’t been lighting the world on fire offensively, and a huge part of that has been down to a miserable 65.9% mark from the line. They’re just outside the top 25 nationally in free throw rate, so their inability to turn those into points is a real hurter. Just over 40% of their shots come from behind the arc, but they’re only making 32.5% of those attempts. They’re a tick above average on the glass and in ball security and just inside the top 100 in two-point percentage; it all boils out to the 83rd-most efficient offense in the nation per AdjO.
Defense is more or less the same story at 78th in the country. They’re not going to force a lot of turnovers and they’re just a tick below average on the defensive glass; they have been extra successful in defending inside the arc, but that’s about all they have to hand their hats on. Teams take and make threes at an above average clip against them, and it’s hard to say that their very good free throw percentage defense is something replicable. On defense, like on offense, they’re just kind of okay for a major-conference team.
Personnel
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Jamarii Thomas | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 5’11”, 190 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 12.8/3/3 | Game line | 12.6/1.6/5.2 |
| 46.3/35.7/67.7 | Shooting line | 51.2/46.7/93.3 |
| Thomas is late of Norfolk State and UNC Wilmington and now in his first and final season at South Carolina. He’s an excellent defender when he can stay out of foul trouble, which has been less often than you might hope. He’s been a pretty good shooter from all three levels this year, but the three-point arc has been where he pays the bills through most of his career. His assist numbers this year are not great. | ||
| Jacobi Wright | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Senior | Class | Junior |
| 6’2″, 185 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 13/1.8/3.6 | Game line | 18.2/1.2/2.2 |
| 48/37.5/66.7 | Shooting line | 51.9/52.6/88.2 |
| Wright is an okayish shooter off to a solid start this year, but on his career he has been mediocre at putting the biscuit in the basket. Either he put in a ton of work in the summer or his current numbers flatter his actual ability. He’s strong on ball security and has really improved his distribution this season. He doesn’t board at all, but he stays out of foul trouble and does okay defensively. | ||
| Myles Stute | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’6″ 210 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 5.6/2.4/0.8 | Game line | 6.6/4.8/3.4 |
| 29.4/30.8/0 | Shooting line | 44.4/45.5/80 |
| Stute’s value more or less rises and falls with his three-point shooting percentage. When he’s making them, he’s a valuable tertiary scorer. When he’s not, he’s an offensive black hole without a whole lot of other routes to helping the team. He doesn’t board, doesn’t distribute, and is not a statistically impressive defender. Maybe he’s a really good dude. | ||
| Collin Murray-Boyles | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Sophomore | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’8″, 245 | Measurements | 6’8″, 220 |
| 16.2/9.4/1.8 | Game line | 8.2/5.6/2.8 |
| 63.8/66.7/73.1 | Shooting line | 58.3/0/76.5 |
| Stout lad, really good rebounder on both ends. He can score the ball pretty well, but spends most of his time in the lane. That gaudy three-point percentage is on 3 attempts, so maybe don’t sell out to run him off the arc. Foul trouble is a real issue for him against good competition. In terms of both block rate and steal percentage, he’s a solid defender. | ||
| Nick Pringle | Center | Zach Freemantle |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’10”, 220 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 9/8/1.6 | Game line | 15.6/7.2/2.8 |
| 56/0/56.7 | Shooting line | 52.9/50/86.4 |
| Pringle was really efficient in small minutes last year at Alabama, and now he’s doing about the same thing in an expanded role for South Carolina. He’s a good presence on the glass at both ends and gets to line well, though he’s kind of bad as a free throw shooter. His redeemable defensive metrics are undermined by intermittent foul trouble. |
Reserves
Just a hair over 30% of their minutes come off the bench, which is a number that’s not meaningfully distinct from the national average. They get solid production out of those minutes, starting with forward Zachary Davis and his 10/4.6/2.4 game line. The 6’7”, 200-pound junior has started one game and is posting some impressive efficiencies, throwing up a 5.3% TO rate and shooting 78.9% from inside the arc. He’s 3-16 from deep this year and a career 22% shooter from beyond the arc, which really hampers his efficiency overall.
Guard Morris Ugusuk is a 6’4” sophomore out of Helsinki. He’s averaging 6.2/0.8/0.8 per game and shooting 46.7% from beyond the arc in 3 attempts per game. Besides splashing down from distance, he doesn’t offer a whole ton. Freshman wing Cam Scott is a high-usage, low-efficiency bench guy, like a microwave with a broken heating element. He averages 3.4/2.4/0.6 per game on more than 5 FGA per thanks to an abysmal 28.9% EFG%.
Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk exists and has an awesome name. Jordan Butler is a true seven-footer who will get a few minutes here and there. Mostly, the bench consists of the three dudes listed above though.
Three questions
-How does Xavier fare away from home? This is one of the most veteran teams you’ve ever seen suit up for X and in the top three in the nation in D1 experience this year. You would assume that a team that has been around the block like that would have no trouble with a neutral site event, but every group is different and these guys haven’t been out of the friendly confines of Cintas. Probably shouldn’t be a problem though. I think.
-Who wins in the mid-range? Xavier’s defense excels at pushing teams away from the rim and into shooting long twos. South Carolina doesn’t necessarily hunt those shots, but they’re shooting an excellent 46.2% on mid-range attempts this season. Xavier’s defense has done well in making teams miss from that range and it’s axiomatic that a long two for the offense is a win for the defense; how well that holds over 40 minutes will likely have a hand in the outcome of this game.
-Who controls the pace? Xavier gets out and goes like nobody’s business while South Carolina is 269th in the country in adjusted tempo. It’s also worth noting that X generally abandons the offensive glass in favor of getting four or five dudes behind the ball to keep other teams from fast breaking. South Carolina might end up doing the same to keep the Muskies from grabbing free points in transition.
Three keys
-Let it fly. Xavier is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation. South Carolina’s three-point defense is 206th in the nation by percentage and 139th in rate. It’s the obvious point of weakness that surely both coaching staffs (staves?) will be aware of. If Xavier can exploit that and keep their historic start to the season from deep rolling, they could walk into the final.
-Win the freebie war. This is big in every game, but it’s incredibly exploitable for Xavier in this matchup. The Muskies are borderline elite on the defensive glass while South Carolina is merely above average on the offensive end. South Carolina isn’t forcing any turnovers at all, and Xavier never turns the ball over. If they don’t outshoot the Gamecocks, they may well make it up in volume.
-Win in waves. Both of these teams get exactly 30.7% of their minutes from the bench, but Xavier gets more production from the guys they don’t start. South Carolina has two dudes off the bench getting even 4 PPG; Xavier has four such players, and they’re each executing out of fairly well defined roles. Trey Green is lightning in a bottle as a scorer, John Hugley IV is a monster in the paint, Big Rome is mopping up everything, and Dante Maddox. Jr. admittedly runs hot and cold, but his hots are scalding. Every time someone comes out of the game, the Musketeer coming in can step right in without being an production black hole. These holiday MTEs can be weird, but Xavier has more tools to adjust to the unexpected.