Here we go again, again…
Xavier needs to win the next three. If they don’t, there are mathematical ways back onto the bubble but not realistic ones. The season that started with such high hopes will hinge on being able to get hot at the right time at MSG and pilfer the auto bid, Patrick Ewing style. The hole the Muskies have dug is deep, but it is not yet insurmountable.
St. John’s, on the other hand, is in a strong position. Sitting at 12-3 with no bad losses, they’ve put together the kind of early resume that can be polished into something special with a strong second half of the season. Their three losses – all away from home, all in Q1 games – were separated by a total of four points at the end of their respective regulations. They’ve blown some teams out but never been close to being blown out themselves.
Hope persists for a little while longer for Xavier fans. If you squint, you can see them ripping off home wins against St. John’s and Nova bracketed around a successful road trip to DePaul. That gets them to something like -0.3 or -0.4 WAB heading into a gauntlet of at Marquette, at St. John’s, home to UConn, and at Creighton. Split those and suddenly there’s a conversation to be had.
It all starts tonight, or it can. If it doesn’t, it’s looking unlikely that it will ever start at all.
Team fingerprint
Really good at defense, like top ten in the nation in AdjD. They force a ton of turnovers, block a lot of shots, and generate a lot of live-ball steals. Teams only shoot 45% from inside the arc against St. John’s, which is a really good mark for a defense to force. They can be had a bit from behind the arc, but it’s not a crippling deficiency. They’re only about average on the defensive glass, but they do a good job of keeping teams off the line. Only Baylor and Delaware have scored even 1 point per possession against the Johnnies.
The offense is 49th in the country in adjusted efficiency, and a lot of that comes off the back on the defense. They play incredibly fast and try to turn steals into points as quickly as possible at every opportunity. They’re a bad three-point shooting team, but they very rarely pull from behind the arc, taking just 30% of their shots from deep. They do a good job of avoiding turnovers and fly to the glass in droves. They’re in many ways a classic sort of run-and-gun, defense to offense team.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Deivon Smith | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’0″, 175 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 11/5.9/4.9 | Game line | 10.9/2.8/4.7 |
| 45.2/40/69.6 | Shooting line | 45.3/38.7/84.9 |
| Among Johnnies who play more than 20% of the available minutes, Smith leads in DReb%, which is not necessarily what I was anticipating from a 6’0″ guard. Aside from that, he pairs an excellent assist rate with good defense and the ability to knock down threes if left unattended. He’s a good finisher, but he settles for mid-range shots too much and he’s awful from there. St. John’s is his fourth school. | ||
| Kadary Richmond | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Senior | Class | Junior |
| 6’6″, 205 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 10.8/5.4/4.4 | Game line | 16.3/2.9/2.1 |
| 46.4/17.6/44.2 | Shooting line | 45.7/42.9/75.5 |
| Richmond has never been a great shooter, but that line – especially 44% from the line – absolutely jumps off the page. His ancillary skills – especially his defense – have remained strong, but he isn’t shooting nearly as much as he did at Seton Hall and he hasn’t seen a jump in efficiency to go along with it. If he was hoping this year at St. John’s would be a springboard to improved professional stock, he’s having a rough go of it so far. | ||
| Aaron Scott | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’7″, 210 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 7.6/3.9/1 | Game line | 8.9/4.4/2.2 |
| 39/26.9/87.5 | Shooting line | 43.5/43.1/72 |
| Late of North Texas, Scott’s rebounding numbers have gotten worse each year he’s been in college. He was a sniper at NT, hitting 62-157 (39.4%) from deep in his last two years there, but his shooting hasn’t come in yet as a Johnnie. He is a highly efficient offensive player because he is a solid offensive rebounder who never turns the ball over. Two thirds of his shots will come from behind the arc. | ||
| RJ Luis, Jr. | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Junior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’7″, 215 | Measurements | 6’8″, 220 |
| 16.5/6.2/2.6 | Game line | 9.1/4.9/2.1 |
| 46.3/23.4/73.9 | Shooting line | 54.2/33.3/81.5 |
| Luis doesn’t have elite size, but he’s excellent around the rim on offense, shooting 63% on close twos. He’s no great shakes from the mid-range and downright awful from deep, but he gets to the rim a lot. He’s a solid rebounder and, like most of his teammates, an excellent defender. He’s fifth in the Big East in fouls drawn per 40 minutes with 5.5. | ||
| Zuby Ejiofor | Center | Jerome Hunter |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’9″, 240 | Measurements | 6’8″, 225 |
| 14.7/7.8/1.1 | Game line | 7/3.8/0.8 |
| 58.9/25/68.1 | Shooting line | 50/55.6/75 |
| Ejiofor is about the only size to speak of in the St. John’s rotation and he flies to the offensive glass like a madman. In addition to being relentless on the boards, he also lives in the paint on offense, where he’s a solid finisher. He has also taken 20 threes this year for reasons I can’t quite discern. He blocks a lot of shots, draws a lot of fouls, and is in general a tough matchup in the middle. |
Reserves
The Johnnies have limited depth, getting just 30% of their minutes off the bench but having featured 9 different players in the starting lineup at least once. The depth has taken another hit with the injury of Brady Dunlap (5.7/2.2/0.7), who is out for another week or two recovering from hand surgery. He played through the injury for the bulk of December before going under the knife less than a week before Christmas.
Most notable among them (other than the five already mentioned in the starter’s grid) is Simeon Wilcher, brother of Steele Era Xavier legend CJ Wilcher. He’s a 6’4” sophomore guard averaging 9.3/2.5/1.2 per game on 45.8/37.5/94.1 shooting. He’s a strong scorer at all three levels and an excellent free throw shooter.
The rest is just a mish-mash of dudes who average 12 minutes or so every time out. Vince Iwuchukwu is a 7’1” center averaging 3.5/2.1/0.1 per game. He crushes the defensive glass, blocks a lot of shots, and can be foul prone. As one might expect, he’s very effective around the rim. Ruben Prey is a 6’10” freshman big. He’s a tick above anonymous on the glass thanks mostly to his contributions in offensive rebounding and averages 2.2/1.1/0.2 per game.
Jaiden Glover is the other backup guard. He averages 2.8 PPG and shoots 38% from deep, though that PPG number should give you some inkling of how often he’s pulling from out there.
Three questions
-Is Zach Freemantle full go? Against a defense that puts as much pressure on the perimeter as St. John’s does, Xavier is going to need someone who they can throw the ball to in the paint, both for relief and points. Frosty came off the bench for 16 and 7 against Georgetown, but he was just 3-9 from inside the arc and turned the ball over 3 times. It’s a big ask, but Xavier needs him at his best.
-Can Xavier make St. John’s earn their buckets? St. John’s cannot shoot at all of late. They’re shooting 15% from deep in Big East games and are 11th, 8th, and 10th in the league in three-point percentage, two-point percentage, and free throw percentage (respectively). They are reliant on transition from turnovers and second chance points to keep them from suffering long scoring droughts. Xavier can slow teams down, but they’re miserable on the defensive glass. They have to be able to do both to keep the Johnnies from scoring enough to let their defense carry them.
-How does Xavier attack? The Muskies are shooting 41% from deep in Big East games, and the arc has been the weak point of St. John’s defense. X came out stone cold from deep against Georgetown though, and by the time they had figured anything out, they were in a 13-point hole from which they would never truly recover. It’s honestly hard to look at this roster right now and see a lot of players you’d trust to get a bucket against a good defense. We’ll see if Sean Miller can scheme his way through this one.
One key
-Play the whole game. I swear if I watch Xavier wilt out of the pointy end of the game after the whole of Musketeer Twitter fires off “Win the war, win the game” one more time, I’m gonna lose my mind. Presuming Xavier doesn’t get run off the court, this one is gonna be tight at the end. If the Muskies can’t get it across the line, they’re functionally out of meaningful opportunities.