No early December game is must win, but Xavier needs this one.
Xavier won their last game. If you watched it and the reaction, you can be forgiven for not knowing that. I’ve been at the practices of teams that won like that. They aren’t pleasant. Xavier’s last two games have cast serious doubt on their ability to play meaningful (meaning not the NIT) basketball in March. Prior to Michigan you could see a team just yawning its way through a buffet of cupcakes. Now, Xavier is staggered. They resemble nothing so much as man who gorged on said cupcakes and then was told to start running.
If the tournament started right now the Musketeers would be laughably far from the field. (The Big East schedule isn’t exactly salvation, but more on that as we go.) TCU isn’t doing much better. Jamie Dixon’s crew has also lost to Michigan, albeit in a real game, but then tacked on losses to Colorado and Santa Clara. Barely beating South Carolina St is bad, dropping two Q3s in a row is worse. Thanksgiving wasn’t kind to either of these squads. If either loses this one they’ll be in heavy weather.
Team Fingerprint
Starting with the positive, TCU plays good defense. They drag possessions out until they can force a turnover or a bad shot. They can be had a bit on the offensive glass. but beyond that they are quite good. Teams shoot ok inside the arc against them, but Xavier is pretty poor at interior scoring,
TCU should focus on their defense, because their offense is a train wreck. They play fast and don’t turn it over much, but generally because they shoot and miss before they can turn it over. They are below 200th in the nation in shooting from deep and shooting inside the arc. They are somehow not worst in the nation at 59.1% from the line, but they are near as makes no difference. This is an engine built to win on defensive attrition.
Players
Starters
Frankie Collins Point Guard Dayvion McKnight
Senior Class Senior
6’2″, 200 Measurements 6’0″, 188
11.3/4.3/4 Game line 11.4/2.6/4.5
42.6/30/65.2 Shooting line 44.4/47.6/89.3
Collins played at Arizona State and Michigan before TCU, and the book on him has been the same everywhere. He’s an excellent defender who puts up offensive numbers through sheer volume. He’s a slasher with cardiac range; there’s not much point in checking his jumper. He has good enough distribution to lead the team in assists, but ball security has been a bit of an issue.
Noah Reynolds Shooting Guard Ryan Conwell
Senior Class Junior
6’3″, 200 Measurements 6’4″, 215
9.7/2.3/3.6 Game line 16.5/2.1/1.9
46.2/36.4/60 Shooting line 45.1/46.9/76.9
Like an increasing number of players in modern ball, Reynolds has played for two other schools prior to his current one. He was kind of a volume guy for two years at Wyoming before pouring home a ton of buckets at Green Bay last year. He’s okay from behind the arc, but he does most of his damage at the rim. He’s a solid distributor with strong ball security numbers.
Trazarien White Small Forward Marcus Foster
Senior Class Senior
6’6″, 185 Measurements 6’5″, 215
9.9/3.3/1.1 Game line 7.5/4.5/2.9
42.4/33.3/57.1 Shooting line 42.9/42.1/71.4
White is a good, athletic defender, but his scoring prowess shouldn’t be overlooked. He got almost 20 per game last year at UNC Wilmington, powered largely by a big step forward from his career 29% mark from deep. He’s shooting 81% at the rim this year but just 28% on his 43 attempts away from it.
Brendan Wenzel Power Forward Dailyn Swain
Senior Class Sophomore
6’8″, 215 Measurements 6’8″, 220
8.4/4.9/1.1 Game line 8/4.9/2.6
33.3/39.5/88.9 Shooting line 57.9/0/76.9
My man is 3-18 from inside the arc this year, which is really crippling his efficiency. He has never had a season in which he made more twos than threes and only once has it even been particularly close. He’s a good defensive rebounder and excellent free throw shooter, but he doesn’t impact games much beyond that. He hit 5 threes against Michigan and is certainly capable of ruining this game for Xavier.
Ernest Udeh Jr. Center Zach Freemantle
Junior Class Senior
6’11”, 260 Measurements 6’9″, 227
7.8/9/1.2 Game line 15.6/7.8/2.4
59.1/0/52 Shooting line 54.1/27.8/73.7
Udeh has made 13 shots this year and 9 of them have been dunks. He’s an absolute monster on the glass at both ends and blocks a ton of shots. Little things like making free throws, staying out of foul trouble, and scoring from more than about four feet out have been persistent issues for him.
Reserves
The bench provides almost 35% of TCU’s minutes, just outside the top 100 in the nation. This is one of the deeper teams Xavier has played so far this year. They’ve also got just 7.4% minutes continuity; Jamie Dixon is clearly shuffling pieces around trying to find what fits on what is functionally a whole new roster from a year ago.
Leading the bench mob is Vasean Allette, a 6’2″ combo guard late of Old Dominion. He leads the team in usage rate on his way to 9.7/3.1/1.7 via pure volume. He’s 4 for his last 15 from deep and a career 62% free throw shooter. He does live in the passing lanes defensively though, as evidenced by a 3.3% steal rate.
Freshmen David Punch and Micah Robinson provide big man depth. At 6’7″, 245, Punch profiles more as a pure center, averaging 5.3/4.4/0.1, crushing the offensive glass, and blocking a ton of shots. He also fouls a lot and is 5-13 from the line. Robinson is an inch shorter and 20 pounds lighter and plays the forward spots. He averages 5.1/1.6/1, rarely turns the ball over, and leads the team with a 112 ORtg. He has a bright future ahead of him.
James’s son Jace Posey is a freshman wing getting 4 per game on a rugged .458/.300/.222 shooting line, and Isaiah Manning provides some deep depth as a big. Despite being 6’8″, Manning is 2-4 from inside the arc and 3-17 from beyond it.
Three questions
Where is this team? More specifically, where are they mentally? There’s no question that they are rattled after getting bludgeoned by Michigan. That showed in squeaking past a genuinely horrible South Carolina St. They desperately need some sort of steel that has been lacking so far. Someone needs to step up and lead from the front. This is the game to find out who that guy is.
Can someone score inside? Yes, Zach Freemantle. Can anyone else? TCU isn’t great with interior defense. Ernest Udeh and David Punch block some shots, but that’s about it. However, Xavier hasn’t shown that anyone other than the biggest of Frostys can put the ball in the basket with any regularity. John Hugley is actually shooting 56% from two point range, but he cannot hold on to the ball at all. Dailyn Swain is deadly inside the arc but weirdly passive recently.
What is up with Dailyn Swain? Against South Carolina the explosive sophomore stuffed the stat sheet. Since then he has taken seven shots, turned the ball over five times, and posted and ORtg that adds up to 105. He’s too big a weapon to be so oddly unassertive. Michigan seemed to scare him, and he’s yet to recover.
Three keys
Dominate the glass: X has been naff on the offensive glass all season, but TCU isn’t great on the defensive end clearing the boards. Xavier defensive rebounds incredibly well. The Horned Frogs aren’t a good offensive team but are a good defensive teams. Stealing some points on the offensive glass and preventing them from getting second chance opportunities will be vital.
Take care of the ball: For as good as Dayvion McKnight is, Xavier turns the ball over a bit too much. TCU loves themselves a good turnover. Most of the has come from the bigs. Swain and Hugley have both been bad, and Jerome Hunter has a turnover rate of just over 20%. They simply need to hang on to the ball better when the guards get it to them.
Show some spine: When Xavier put together a 14-2 run late in their last game they should have been home and hosed. Instead, they faded. Most of us here remember the times when Xavier was the scrappy underdog. They aren’t anymore. Being the favorite, though, doesn’t mean you have to be languid when in the lead or not vicious when the ball is loose. That snap that Xavier had before is gone. They need to rediscover it.