Hopefully this one doesn’t go they way it feels like it will.
So…
Xavier went eight deep against UC last time out, having been deprived of bench scorer Trey Green through circumstances that the program rightly didn’t feel the need to make public. Maybe in part due to that limited depth, they faded down the stretch, bobbling away the game much the way they had against TCU. When the dust settled, Zach Freemantle’s game-tying three-point attempt went begging and a seven point lead with seven minutes to play had turned into a gutting loss.
The rain turned into a downpour in the following days, as news broke that leading scorer, leading rebounder, and often apparently the only good player on the floor for Xavier Zach Freemantle was out indefinitely with a knee injury. A team that had twice crapped away 75% of win probability in big road games has now been shorn of two of its most energetic and charismatic players on the precipice of conference play.
Their first matchup is a road game against back-to-back defending national champions UConn. There was a moment during the Thanksgiving weekend where it looked like this might be the year Dan Hurley’s boys blinked, as they dropped three in a row against Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton in Hawai’i. As soon as they hit the contiguous 48 though, normal service resumed. After beating the brakes off of Maryland Eastern Shore, they picked up KenPom Tier A wins against Baylor, at Texas, and on a neutral(ish) site against Gonzaga.
There are a lot of signs point to the idea that, in the words of Lieutenant (junior grade) Daniel Kaffee, “We’re gonna lose, and we’re gonna lose huge.” There’s a reason they play the games though.
Team fingerprint
The offense is fourth in the nation, which isn’t super promising for Xavier. They lead the country in two-point shooting percentage at a dominant 62.9%. They’re just inside the top 100 at 35.4% from deep, but they shoot a ton of them, with 46% of their attempts coming from beyond the arc. They’re inside the top 50 in OReb% and TO rate as an offense; they don’t shoot themselves in the foot by giving away possessions or second chances. They’re only about average at getting to the line, but it frankly isn’t that big a deal.
The defense is something else entirely at 70th in the country. They’re dominant in the paint, sidling inside the top 10 in both defensive two-point percentage and block rate. They’re also an excellent defensive rebounding team, only allowing offenses to grab a quarter of their own misses. Teams are shooting over 37% from beyond the arc against UConn, but the Huskies have done well in limiting attempts. They send their opponents to the line a lot and don’t force a ton of turnovers, but – aside from that nightmare week in Hawai’i – the offense has been more than enough to carry the defense across the line.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Hassan Diarra | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’2″, 195 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 7.6/2.9/5.7 | Game line | 10.3/2.7/4.7 |
| 41.7/22.6/77.1 | Shooting line | 45.1/45.8/90.3 |
| Diarra took a huge step forward in efficiency last year and he has taken one in usage this year. He doesn’t shoot a lot, but he’s an excellent ball manager and a very good defender. He started the season coming off the bench but supplanted media darling Aidan Mahaney in the starting lineup after five games. He can be a little prone to foul trouble, but mostly he just gets on the ball and gets it where it needs to go. | ||
| Solo Ball | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Sophomore | Class | Junior |
| 6’3″, 190 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 12.5/1.9/1.5 | Game line | 16.9/7.7/2.5 |
| 48/44.4/75 | Shooting line | 54.4/26.7/76.4 |
| Ball didn’t see the floor much as a freshman outside of blowout situations (which didn’t stop him from dropping a dozen on Xavier on 4-5 from deep on January 28), but he has hit the ground running this year. He has a modern shot profile, with 27 shots at the rim, 63 from behind the arc, and only 8 between. He doesn’t board, turn it over, or distribute; he’s out there to shoot. He can be a little foul prone. | ||
| Liam McNeeley | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Freshman | Class | Senior |
| 6’7″, 210 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 13.6/6.1/2.1 | Game line | 7.6/4.5/2.5 |
| 42.9/33.9/83.7 | Shooting line | 43.5/46.7/71.4 |
| “Born to replace Cam Spencer” according to his head coach, McNeeley resembles him more in temperment than player profile. He’s not a great three-point shooter, but he’s strong from the mid-range and at the rim and gets to the line a ton. He’s a really good rebounder on the defensive end and never turns the ball over. | ||
| Alex Karaban | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain |
| Junior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’8″, 225 | Measurements | 6’8″, 220 |
| 15.6/5/3.1 | Game line | 8.9/4.6/2.5 |
| 47.3/42.4/81.8 | Shooting line | 62.1/16.7/75.8 |
| This frickin’ guy. His usage rate isn’t actually as high as I thought it would be; he just always seems to be central to the action. He’s a really crafty scorer from all three levels and has a lightning quick release off the catch. He has the capacity to get ridiculously Ethan Wragge hot if he’s left in space for even a moment. On the other end, he blocks a decent amount of shots for a guy who doesn’t otherwise have the statistical profile of a rim protector. | ||
| Samson Johnson | Center | John Hugley IV |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’10”, 225 | Measurements | 6’11”, 270 |
| 7.4/2.5/1.2 | Game line | 3.4/2.9/0.9 |
| 83.7/0/69.2 | Shooting line | 41.4/25/66.7 |
| Speaking of classic rim protectors, Johnson is one. He’s just a really good defender in general, whether in help or on the ball. He’s also a monster in the paint, shooting 91% at the rim and sporting a ridiculous 19 dunks on the season. He’s not a particularly impressive rebounder at either end and he’s committing 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes, but when he’s not taking himself out of the game with foul trouble, he’s a menace. |
Reserves
About a third of UConn’s minutes come from off the bench, a couple ticks above the national average. A couple of them have gotten a look in the starting lineup this year, including sophomore forward Jaylin Stewart. He’s averaging 6.2/3.0/1.3 per game and is shooting an impressive 71% from inside the arc. He’s a really strong offensive rebounder who doesn’t need his number called on that end.
The other is guard Aidan Mahaney, who caught eyes in two years at Saint Mary’s and had talking heads lining up to talk themselves silly about how dynamic a young player he was. His was a coveted signature on the transfer market, but he has paid Dan Hurley back to the tune of just 4.6/1.0/1.8 per game on .340/.345/.714 shooting. He hasn’t done much distributing or defending; he’s just kind of there as guard depth.
Michigan transfer big man Tarris Reed hasn’t started a game this year, but his 11.1/8.0/0.9 game line is the hallmark of a guy trying to force his way onto the floor. He’s inside the top 20 in the nation in rebounding percentage at both ends and dunks almost everything he gets his hands on in the paint. He’s also a solid shot blocker and draws a ton of fouls; he’s an absolute weapon off the bench.
Wing Jayden Ross gives 4.7/2.7/1.6 in 15 minutes that might be 20 if he didn’t foul so much, and Ahmed Nowell has been an ultra-efficient distributor in about 10 a game as a backup guard.
Three questions
-Is Ryan Conwell ready to be the guy against high-level opponents? I think Xavier fans were hoping for Conwell to be a left-handed Quincy Olivari, but he has fallen frustratingly short of that admittedly high bar so far this year. It took him 18 attempts to get 17 points in the TCU loss and he was a non-factor for much of the Crosstown Shootout. With Zach Freemantle off the floor for an unknown amount of time, Xavier desperately needs someone to step up and consistently turn possessions into points. Conwell’s name is at the top of that list, and he honestly might be the only name on it.
-What will the lineup look like? With Frosty out, John Hugley IV is the only remaining player on the roster listed at taller than 6’8”. Unless you can run five out, you have to have a big man in the Big East unless you want to coast to about 6-14 on the conference season. Swain and Hunter don’t shoot well enough to facilitate a system without a post, and Cam Fletcher is still being ramped up and logged 0 minutes in the Shootout. The twin injuries of Freemantle and Traore have hit the team hard and put them in a really tough spot.
-When will Trey Green return? Shooting an energy are two things that can really paper over a lack of size, and Green has them both in spades. He has the potential to go on a blinder and carry the team through when nothing else is working. The longer he’s out, the more this season trends towards life support.
Three keys
-Find a way in the paint. Xavier doesn’t necessarily need to score a ton in the paint, and it’s not clear they have that capacity as currently constructed, but they have to stop UConn from outscoring them by 25 or something in there. The team as a whole is elite at the rim and Johnson and Reed are especially brutal to defend in the restricted area. If Xavier’s paint defense doesn’t figure something out, you’re going to see a lot of Huskies doing the “too small” gesture tonight.
-Shoot it really well. Duh, right? Still, Xavier is in the top 20 in the nation, shooting over 39% from deep as a team. UConn allowed the three teams that beat them to shoot a combined 29-55 (52.7%) from behind the arc. The Huskies are an elite two-point defense, but they can and have been had from three-point range. The arc is a great equalizer in modern basketball, and Xavier is going to need a lot of equalizing done. It’s time to chuck it from the cheap seats.
-Don’t beat yourselves. Xavier had two huge road wins in hand already this year before they tripped over their own shoelaces down the stretch twice over and handed the games away. UConn doesn’t need any help beating teams, and Xavier might as well not board the plane if they can’t hold a high level of execution for 40 minutes tonight.