This is a big one.
Xavier has lost eight games this year. They got thumped by Michigan. They got run off the floor at Cintas against St. John’s. Aside from those two games, they’ve played every loss right down to the wire. This is a team with a resume on life support, but the capacity to bring it all the way back is still very much alive and well.
UConn is in a much different, much better situation than Xavier. Boasting three quad 1 wins and a healthy 1.2 WAB, they’re in a situation in which they’re playing for seeding more than their tournament lives at this point. Still, the cracks are showing in the three-peat attempt. Without talismanic freshman Liam McNeeley, they’re just 3-2 in their last 5. They needed a furious comeback capped by a 17-2 run to beat Providence by a single possession and were pushed to overtime at home against Butler. To further complicate matters, it seems like officials are finally growing tired of Dan Hurley’s childish antics on the sideline.
McNeeley will still be out for this game. Xavier pushed UConn to overtime at their place without Zach Freemantle in the first matchup. The Muskies have looked like a team on the precipice of putting it all together for a while now, and they’re nearly to the part of the season where schedule eases up a bit. If they can find a way to win this game, they’ll have positioned themselves to make a serious run. It all starts with these 40 minutes.
Team fingerprint
They still score like national champs, with their 122.9 ORtg this year nestling neatly between the numbers they posted in that department in the past two seasons and easily in the top 10 this season. It’s a well-rounded attack based mostly on being really good at shooting; they’re top 10 in the nation in EFG% and good from two, three, and the foul line. After bombing away in the non-conference, they’ve eased off the reliance on the three a bit and land nicely in the middle of the conference. They’re good in ball security and squarely middle of the pack in offensive rebounding. They don’t play fast or draw a ton of fouls, which are two things that could challenge Xavier’s non-existent depth.
The defense hasn’t been up to their regular standards. They’re 8th in the league overall and 7th or worse in each of the four factors (EFG%, TO rate, DReb%, and free throw rate). They block a lot of shots and do a decent job of defending the paint, but it comes at the cost of fouling a ton. There’s not a ton to dig into here. Their strategy is plainly to chase shooters off the arc and try to force one-on-one ball and push everything to the shot blockers in the middle. It’s just not being super effective.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Hassan Diarra | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’2″, 195 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 8.9/3.3/6.7 | Game line | 10.4/2.8/4.9 |
| 42.4/25.9/81.5 | Shooting line | 41/35.7/80 |
| Diarra has been one of the most efficient players in the Big East since league play started. He leads the conference in assist rate and almost never turns the ball over. He’s not a great shooter, but he cashes out when he gets to the line. He caps off the whole package by being a very good defender. | ||
| Solo Ball | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Sophomore | Class | Junior |
| 6’3″, 190 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 14.2/2.6/1.3 | Game line | 16.7/2.7/2.2 |
| 47.2/45.1/77.5 | Shooting line | 43.3/39.6/82.3 |
| After a lackluster freshman year, Ball has really taken off this season. He’s an excellent shooter, especially off the catch, and he hasn’t missed a beat in conference play. He’s averaging three made threes per game in Big East play. He’s not going to contribute much on the offensive end aside from his excellent jump shooting, but he’s incredibly prolific and the team does a good job of getting him to his spots. | ||
| Jaylin Stewart | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| 6’7″, 215 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 5.6/2.4/1.2 | Game line | 8.4/4.3/2 |
| 53.2/29.4/77.8 | Shooting line | 42/44.8/70 |
| World’s Okayest Small Forward. Stewart can be a little foul prone and doesn’t hear his number called on offense very much, but he’s very efficient, cash from inside the arc, and strong on ball security. He keeps things ticking over without having a deletrious affect on the team. Not everyone can be having plays run for them on a regular basis. | ||
| Alex Karaban | Power Forward | Jerome Hunter |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’8″, 225 | Measurements | 6’8″, 225 |
| 15.8/5.1/3 | Game line | 6.1/3.7/1 |
| 47.4/41.3/78 | Shooting line | 48.4/46.2/73.7 |
| A lot of ink gets spilled about how good Karaban is on offense, but he is also a very good defender. He blocks a lot of shots and has posted strong steal rates in the past without finding himself in foul trouble. That’s overshadowed by the fact that he has colossal range, can score at all three levels, and never turns the ball over. He’ll probably be first team all-conference. | ||
| Samson Johnson | Center | Zach Freemantle |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’10”, 225 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 7.9/2.9/1.4 | Game line | 16.7/2.7/2.2 |
| 76.5/0/73.1 | Shooting line | 43.3/39.6/82.3 |
| Johnson is a decent offensive player and has a bit more range than I think he gets credit for. He’s also an excellent defender man-up or as a helper, though he does struggle with foul trouble. For a man with his size and athletic ability, he is weirdly absent on the defensive glass. Nobody’s going to confuse him with John Stockton, but he is an adequate passer as big. |
Reserves
The bench is fairly deep, but it has taken a hit due to the injury to Liam McNeeley. He was offering 30 minutes per game before he went down, and UConn has struggled to replace his production in his absence.
One dude who hasn’t struggled is big man Tarris Reed, Jr., who hung 20/13/2 on Xavier in the first meeting and is good for 9.7/7.3/0.9 on average. He’s a machine on the glass at both ends and a reliable interior scorer; his defensive numbers are blunted by foul trouble.
Saint Mary’s transfer Aiden Mahaney provides the guard depth. He’s averaging 4.7/0.8/1.5 in his first year on the east coast and has struggled to adapt to high-major ball. He dropped 15 on Providence but has otherwise averaged just 3.4 per game in league play. Sophomore Jayden Ross is a 6’7″ wing who provides depth. He averages 3.7/2.2/1.1 in 14 minutes per game, plays strong defense, and is way more effective inside the arc than beyond it.
Three questions
-Can Xavier get anything off the bench? The Muskies have a first unit that can run with anyone, but contributions from outside of that group have been inconsistent, to put it charitably. In 45 minutes of ball at St. John’s, X got just 39 bench minutes and basically bupkus in terms of production in that time, drawing the ire of Coach Miller. That wasn’t the case in the away leg of this fixture, where Dante Maddox, Jr. dropped 22 and hit 5 threes. With Dailyn Swain last seen being helped off the floor at MSG, it’s very much time for someone from this group to step up.
-How much difference do the returning big men make? Both Zach Freemantle and Samson Johnson missed the previous matchup between these two teams, but they’re both back and ostensibly healthy for this one. Freemantle is obviously the superior offensive player, but Johnson’s presence could blunt his impact a bit. It seems unlikely that Xavier will shoot 13-24 from three again; the production of these two big men may end up determining how much of that is made up for elsewhere.
-Is Dailyn Swain good? It’s not a stretch to say that Swain has been one of Xavier’s most important players this year. He was sensational in the Marquette game, scoring 12, grabbing 6 offensive boards, and being the best defensive player on the floor for either team. He was having another excellent game against St. John’s until he had to be carried off due to injury. Xavier’s season might hinge on this game, and this game might hinge on Swain’s status. If anything, it’s understatement to call this the most consequential injury since the one suffered by Archduke Ferdinand (God rest his soul).
Three keys
-Keep the ball hot. It’s no secret that Xavier is an excellent offensive team when they share the ball. It’s also no secret that UConn tries to make the ball stick. Xavier’s 31% assist rate the last time these two teams played was a season low, papered over nicely by a barrage of threes that almost won the game. UConn’s defense is a weakness this year; for Xavier to take full advantage, they have to move the ball well enough to put the Huskies into rotation.
-Live at the line. First of all, the refs owe Xavier one, no question. Second of all, the Muskies are a top-20 free throw shooting team in the nation and UConn fouls a ton. Karaban and Ball don’t get called for many, but Diarra is good for 3 per 40 minutes in the Big East and everyone else in the rotation is getting called for at least 4 per 40. The more early foul trouble X can generate, the more energy Ball and Karaban have to expend on defense and the more pressure is one UConn’s underwhelming bench mob (Reed aside). This is a home game. Xavier should be hunting contact relentlessly.
-Find a way to finish. If you can’t walk, crawl, et c. Get this one and suddenly you can squint and Xavier’s schedule and see a path to the tournament without too much imagination involved. If this one goes by the boards, it’s going to take something really special to climb back into the bubble. The way Xavier has been playing lately, they’ll be in this one down the stretch. This has been a season defined by disappointment in tight games; it’s time for the home team to come good.