Must win games in January are rarely a good sign.
Did you know that Xavier has split with Villanova over the last two seasons? I know that’s hard to process, because it seems like the Wildcats have beaten Xavier by 20 every time they’ve played since X joined the Big East. That’s not true. In fact, Xavier won the last meeting between these two teams in a hideous game that can barely have been called basketball.
This year, Xavier needs all the wins they can get. If they win 2-0 they will happily take it. Win 130-128 and they will take it. If the bubble were an actual bubble like we all used to get in bottles as kids, Xavier is currently in that part of the film that flies off before the actual sphere forms. Technically there, but not really the part people are talking about. The Run very famously began on February 3rd. If X waits that long this year to start winning games, they’ll be done.
Villanova has semi-quietly begun putting together a nice season. Their only losses in the Big East have come at Creighton and at St. John’s, and they beat UConn already. They’d be firmly in the tournament field if it started today, except they did something silly and lost to both Columbia and Virginia. Silliness is not a good metric to be high in when it comes Selection Sunday.
Team fingerprint
On offense Nova plays slowly and buries threes. Yes, we’re back to that again. By slowly, I mean glacially. Their tempo is in the bottom 20 in the nation. They don’t turn the ball over, they make the threes they take, and they, gulp, hammer the offensive glass. Let’s not linger on that too long because…
Nova is dog water on defense. They’re 177th in the nation and aren’t really good at much of anything. Teams shoot threes on them, teams make threes on them. They don’t force turnovers and they aren’t terribly impressive on the glass. They sit in their defense and hope you miss. Most of the time, teams haven’t. This, by the way, is why they play so slowly on offense. Any team that can push pace and find some offensive rhythm could pull a Columbia and drop 90.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Jhamir Brickus | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 5’11”, 188 | Measurements | 6’0″, 188 |
| 11.2/2.1/5.6 | Game line | 10.5/2.8/4.9 |
| 51.1/51.5/85.7 | Shooting line | 43.6/35.3/83.6 |
| After 117 games over 4 years at La Salle, Brickus is finishing out his eligibility at Nova. He cannot miss from deep, distributes well, and very rarely turns the ball over. He’s never at the line and he doesn’t board, but he’s a good defender and a really efficient offensive player who doesn’t need his number called that often. Give him a whisker and he’s got the ability to hurt you. | ||
| Jordan Longino | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell |
| Senior | Class | Junior |
| 6’5″, 215 | Measurements | 6’4″, 215 |
| 10/2.9/2.2 | Game line | 16.1/2.7/2.2 |
| 42/33.8/83.9 | Shooting line | 44.1/40.2/80.6 |
| The World’s Okayest Jay Wright Leftover has (perhaps belatedly) found another gear in Big East play. He’s shooting 50% from deep and posting a comical 137.4 ORtg in league games. He’s putting up really good defensive numbers, and you’d assume he’ll be the one shadowing Conwell tonight. He’s not a great slasher, but he has good mid-range numbers this year. | ||
| Wooga Poplar | Small Forward | Marcus Foster |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’5″, 197 | Measurements | 6’5″, 215 |
| 14.5/6.6/1.6 | Game line | 8.4/4.1/2.1 |
| 47.5/38.6/85.7 | Shooting line | 41.3/43.6/70.4 |
| Like Longino, Poplar has locked in during the Big East season. His 133.2 ORtg in league play is built primarly on his 65.8% EFG% and good ball security numbers. He’s also an incredible force on the defensive glass, most notably in the win at Butler, where he grabbed 14 of them. He’s scoring from all three levels and has been nails from the line. | ||
| Eric Dixon | Power Forward | Jerome Hunter |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’8″, 265 | Measurements | 6’8″, 225 |
| 25.3/4.9/2.3 | Game line | 6.9/4.1/0.9 |
| 50.2/47/86.4 | Shooting line | 50/50/73.5 |
| Here’s the matchup that will likely decide the game. Dixon is the Ron Burgundy of the Big East in that I hate him, but I’m pretty much forced to respect him, or at least his game. He has added range off the dribble to his already considerable bag and is as dangerous in the post as he is from behind the arc. He can get his at all three levels, wins on the offensive glass, and draws more that 5 fouls per 40 minutes played. He’s weirdly absent on the defensive glass and isn’t a great defender, but his offensive work is eye-popping. | ||
| Enoch Boakye | Center | Zach Freemantle |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| 6’11”, 265 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 4.5/6.4/0.2 | Game line | 16.1/2.7/2.2 |
| 64.3/0/74.2 | Shooting line | 44.1/40.2/80.6 |
| If your best player is a big man who doesn’t DReb or defend the rim, you might want your other big to look exactly like Boakye. He’s an incredible rebounder by rate, a solid shot blocker, and a good free throw shooter. He averages about 3 FGA per game and will get his share of fouls called on him, but he mostly does the ugly work that frees Dixon up to shine. |
Reserves
Villanova sports a thin bench, grabbing about a quarter of their minutes from outside the starting lineup. That’s 321st in the nation, which is basically just another way of saying these guys ride their starters extremely hard and rely on them for most of their production.
The leading man off the bench is Tyler Perkins, the only player outside of the regular starters who has gotten a chance in the starting lineup. He’s a 6’4”, 212-pound guard who averages 6.8/3.2/1.1 per game. He dropped 17 on Seton Hall and has 11 total in five games since.
Kris Parker is a 6’9” freshman big who averages 3.6/1.7/0.6 per game. He runs alongside Dixon to spell Boakye and is a sensational 16-22 (72.7%) from inside the arc, which he spoils with 5-19 from deep. Josiah Moseley goes for 3.1/2.8/0.2 in about 12 minutes of run. He’s a little smaller at 6’6” and takes the four when Nova pushes Dixon to the five. He shoots 62.5/0/66.7, has taken just three threes all year, and is an excellent offensive rebounder.
Beyond those three guys, the bench is more of an idea than a personnel group. Nobody else who is currently healthy and available has played more than 5 games.
Three questions
– Can someone other than Zach Freemantle step up? Everyone knows what is coming when they face Xavier. Freemantle will get his, because he’s been close to unstoppable recently. After that though, it has become a guessing game. Ryan Conwell will shoot a lot, Dayvion McKnight probably won’t shoot enough, Dailyn Swain might be interested, might not. Someone needs to get going.
– Can Xavier defensive rebound? Villanova is going to attack the offensive glass. If they get there. This game is over. There isn’t a lot of nuance in this one. John Hugley and Cam Fletcher have good defensive rebounding rates. Maybe one of them gets extended run.
– Will the Cintas be ready? The last home game was during a snowstorm and the students weren’t in town. The Musketeers played in front of a crowd that was loud only when it booed the home team off the court. There isn’t snow today (though it is a bit chilly) and the students are back. Some home atmosphere would be good.
Three keys
– Hit them with the paddles! At some point in every medical drama and most police shows someone incorrectly deploys an AED for a condition that doesn’t require a shock. Xavier’s season does require a shock. If you think these guys still have some vital signs left, this game needs to be the start of a run.
– Play all 40 minutes: Xavier thoroughly enjoys the middle 32 minutes of games. NCAA regulations stipulate that all games are at least 40 minutes. While this may seem unfair to our heroes, they’re just going to have to find a way to actually play the first and last four minutes of the game as if they matter.
– Rebound and run: X can win this if they make it a track meet. To make it a track meet they must get defensive rebounds. Set the number at 27% percent. If Villanova gets more than that offensive rebound rate, Xavier will lose this game.