Can he hit his way to AAA Louisville in 2025?
After a breakout performance during the 2023-2024 Dominican Winter League earned him Rookie of the Year honors, Hector Rodriguez ran somewhat hot and cold for the Dayton Dragons of the Midwest League in 2024.
He hit .325/.374/.518 in 21 games in the month of April, bursting out of the gate in a way that made some of us wonder if he’d hit his way up to AA Chattanooga as just a 20 year old. Things turned south in a hurry for him, however, and from May 1st through the end of the yera he hit just .259/.294/.394 across 459 PA.
When he’s going good, he’s a potential 20/20 machine whose ability to put the bat on the ball is rare in this day and age. When the hits aren’t falling in for him, though, he can be prone to making a lot of soft outs. Figuring out a bit better pitch selection is the key to further unlocking Hector, something he’ll finally get the chance to do for Chattanooga in 2025.
He’s the #10 prospect in this year’s Community Prospect Rankings. On to the voting for spot #11!
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Tyson Lewis, SS – 19 years old
2024 at a glance: Hit .496 with 8 dingers and 14 doubles in 38 games for Millard West High School in Omaha, NE; drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the 2nd round of the 2024 MLB Draft; signed for an above-slot $3.05 million to turn pro in lieu of attending the University of Arkansas
Pros: Well rounded athlete with 60-grade speed and potential for good power from the left side of the plate
Cons: Defense is solid, yet not spectacular at SS, and it’s likely he ends up moved off the position; not exactly from a baseball hotbed
Tyson Lewis has above-average ability across the board, and if you squint you can see a potential five-tool guy. Right now, it’s more that he’s something of a B+ student in all five tools instead of a guy who’s got two A’s and a trio of Cs.
That can be a good thing! It’s just that we need to see how it translates level by level, since it doesn’t appear he’s shown anything yet that has people already convinced one particular skill is way beyond his level.
He’s just 19, of course, and there’s ample opportunity for that to be shown, he’s just not yet played a professional game since being drafted. So, Lewis gets to play the role of mystery team in this year’s CPR – let’s see who among us is already convinced!
Connor Phillips, RHP – 24 years old
2024 at a glance:
Pros: Fastball that can touch 100 mph; potential plus curveball and slider
Cons: Finding the strikezone has been, at times, impossible for Phillips
Phillips was shelled for 15 dingers and 64 ER across 57.0 IP for AAA Louisville to begin the 2024 season, a 14 game stretch that produced numbers as bad as I’ve seen for any pitcher at any level in a long, long time.
Frankly, that’s because pitchers performing that poorly don’t usually keep getting that many opportunities. In Connor Phillips, though, the Reds know there’s something better in there somewhere, and they’re going to exhaust every last way of allowing him to rediscover that. They shipped him to their complex in Arizona to do side work for some two months after that disastrous start, and when he returned to the Bats he pitched to a tidy 2.49 ERA with a 24/10 K/BB in 21.1 IP across 5 games. He backed that up with a solid, if unspectacular 19.1 IP in Arizona Fall League work, and mostly looked more like the guy who cracked Top 100 overall lists before the season began.
Look, there’s ample evidence out there for you to believe he’ll never cut it as a big league starter and that his inability to throw strikes will continue to plague him. There’s also enough talent (and spurty performance) to allow you to think he’s the best pitcher in the entire system if you catch him on the right day. So, I’ve added him to the mix here earlier than you might have expected to see just how many of you are still on the optimistic side with him.
Julian Aguiar, RHP – 24 years old
2024 at a glance: 6.25 ERA, 6.86 FIP, 1.33 WHIP in 31.2 IP for the Cincinnati Reds; 3.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 116.1 IP split between Louisville Bats (AAA International League) and Chattanooga Lookouts (AA Southern League)
Pros: Strike-thrower who uses a sinker/slider mix; fastball that sits around 95 mph and a potential plus changeup
Cons: Will miss the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late 2024
Aguiar was drafted in the 12th round of the 2021 MLB Draft by the Reds out of Cypress College (CA), a JUCO program that hasn’t exactly produced a ton of big league talent before (Rowan Wick, who caught for the Cubs for a time, and former outfielder Brandon Barnes are their best known products). He signed for just $125,000, never really sat on any top prospect lists prior to 2023, at which point he fired 125.0 IP of 2.95 ERA/1.10 WHIP work between Dayton and Daytona and firmly worked his way into the Reds pitching depth chart.
Solid enough work again in 2024 put him in line for a call-up in August when the Reds rotation was in tatters. While his numbers certainly were nothing to write home about there, he did flash some stuff that looked like it could get big league hitters out more often than not.
Problem is, it’s hard to discern just how much his stumbles before his season ended were due to the elbow troubles that eventually led him to Tommy John surgery. If he’s more effective at throwing strikes when his elbow’s in better shape, perhaps he’d have shown even more than we saw last. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait another year to find out, as he’s likely in recovery-only mode for the entirety of 2025.
Carlos Jorge, 2B/OF – 21 years old
2024 at a glance: Hit .220/.292/.394 with 12 HR and 28 SB in 402 for the Dayton Dragons (High-A Midwest League)
Pros: Plus runner with more pop for his size than you’d expect; former full-time infielder has taken to OF (including CF) quite well in short order
Cons: K-rate has spiked since moving up from A to A+ ball while walk rate has plummeted
At his best, Carlos Jorge has shown a borderline five-tool potential. He slugged .483 across 86 games (355 PA) in the extreme pitcher-friendly confines of the Florida State League for Class A Daytona in 2023 while sporting an excellent 13.2% walk rate and .400 OBP. He swiped 28 bags while only being caught 4 times during his 2024 campaign with High-A Dayton. He came up as a shortstop, has ample experience and skill at 2B, and has adapted to CF with plus ability, too.
If he’d been able to put all of that together in one fell swoop, he’d have already cracked this list. Instead, he’s shown flashes of brilliance with each tool while also having serious issues maintaining it all at once. His most recent body of work in 2024 showed a brutal spike in his strikeouts (K% up to 31.1%) while his walk rate evaporated (down to just 7.7%), and his overall numbers fell dramatically, too.
He only turned 21 in September, however, and there’s ample time for him to turn things around once again. The upside here, though, is still pretty tremendous.