The Cincinnati Reds have stated that they wanted to find offense to add to the club this offseason. They’ve stated that the outfield makes the most sense as to where that could be. That makes sense as the infield is made up of the likes of Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jeimer Candelario, and possibly Spencer Steer. While not everyone in that group should be penciled in as a sure fire bet, the club is going to roll with that group and figure out which are the four/five guys to fill out the infield and designated hitter spot amongst them.
Last night another free agent outfielder who could have filled a need for the Reds came off of the board. Teoscar Hernandez re-signed with the Los Angeles Dodges on a 3-year deal for $66,000,000. That included a signing bonus of $23,000,000, the same amount of money being deferred to an unspecified time in the future, and he has a 4th year available as a $15,000,000 team option.
In the 2024 season he put up 4.3 WAR (Baseball Reference version). He was also named an All-Star for the second time in his career. In his first season with the Dodgers, he hit .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs and 99 runs batted in. He put up a 137 OPS+ (which is his OPS when adjusted for the ballparks he played in during the season).
To put into perspective where that all lies with regards to the 2024 Cincinnati Reds, only Elly De La Cruz had a better WAR from the position player group (5.2) and only Tyler Stephenson even cracked the 2.0 mark among every other position player (2.4). In terms of OPS+, the 137 mark would have easily been the best among the Reds. 100 is league average. Only De La Cruz (119), Stephenson (112), and Jonathan India (105) were even league average among any player on the team with at least 50 at-bats (which 18 players got for the club).
Hernandez would have been a huge upgrade for an offense that wasn’t any good last season. While he’s not a perfect hitter, he’s a very good one with a lot of pop in his bat. Cincinnati’s not going to find a perfect hitter to bring in. Juan Soto is off the board, too. He was also not going to meet the realistic financial terms for the Reds, whether any of us argue that the team could actually have afforded his salary or not. But $22,000,000 a season with just a 3-year commitment? It’s tough to argue that Cincinnati couldn’t have been able to match that.
Maybe it would have taken more to bring him in, though. Hernandez had already been in Los Angeles and maybe he likes living there. If he wants to win, then clearly very few places to sign are going to give you the chances at doing so than with the Dodgers. But money can change things and maybe the Reds could have gotten things done for $25,000,000 a year for three years? They’ve deferred money in other contracts in the past, too, so it’s not a foreign concept to them and maybe it would have made the financial side of things a little easier on them today in a time where they’ve got both Elly De La Cruz making league minimum and Hunter Greene healthy and still making little money on his guaranteed contract.
That brings us to who is left? At the top of the board at this point is probably Anthony Santander. MLB Trade Rumors had him as the 9th best free agent this offseason, but only projected him to get a 4-year deal for $80,000,000. That’s the same deal that Hernandez will wind up with if the Dodgers pick up his option year.
In 2024 he wasn’t as good as Hernandez was – with a 2.9 WAR (Baseball Reference). A first time All-Star, the now 30-year-old crushed the ball over the fence a lot. He had a career high 44 home runs for the Orioles in 155 games. He also drove in a career best 102 runs. But his defense is below-average and he hit just .235 and had a .308 on-base percentage. That power plays and in Great American Ball Park and the other hitter friendly parks in the division, it might play even better.
His 134 OPS+ almost matched that of Hernandez and would clearly be a big upgrade on the offensive side of things for the Reds. The poor defense wouldn’t help much, but overall he would certainly be an upgrade for the club if he can perform anything like he has over the last three seasons in Baltimore.
The only other outfielder out there that seems to make sense is Jurickson Profar. A long time ago he was one of the best prospects in baseball. But injuries kept him off of the field a lot early in his big league career and he was never really able to put things together. But last season, at age 31, he finally did just that and made his first All-Star team. He played in 158 games for the Padres, had 3.6 WAR, and hit .280/.380/.459 with a 134 OPS+ to go along with 24 home runs and 85 RBI. It was easily the best offensive season he’s ever had.
Profar is still available and MLB Trade Rumors projected his deal for $45,000,000 over three years. In today’s game a $15,000,000 per season deal is nothing. That applies if you are the Cincinnati Reds or the New York Yankees. There’s some risk in the idea that he’s really only had one strong offensive year in his career and maybe it won’t be as repeatable. But there’s also risk in standing pat and going into 2025 with the same outfield you had in 2024 that was among the worst in baseball.
There’s not another outfielder remaining on MLB Trade Rumors top 50 free agents. Perhaps that means the Reds won’t be signing anyone that will make a difference. It may also mean that they need to try and focus on adding someone via a trade and try to utilize their farm system to bring in talent to help in the Elly De La Cruz window instead of worrying about 2030.
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