Have the Reds put the finishing touches on their moves for the winter?
Back on January 27th we made an initial guess on how the Cincinnati Reds Opening Day lineup would look given that their first game of the season was set to be two months away – on March 27th – against the San Francisco Giants.
Given that righty Logan Webb will more likely than not be the Giants starter on that day, I pitched the following lineup:
1) TJ Friedl – CF
2) Elly De La Cruz – 3B
3) Matt McLain – SS
4) Jeimer Candelario – DH
5) Tyler Stephenson – C
6) Gavin Lux – 2B
7) Spencer Steer – 1B
8) Jake Fraley – RF
9) Will Benson – LF
SP: Hunter Greene
Since then, the Reds have unveiled a much different gameplan. They not only went out and signed OF Austin Hays, it was also revealed that they had eyes on Chicago White Sox OF Luis Robert, Jr. only to balk at the ending asking price. The result of that failed pursuit (and the funds that would have been allocated to Robert) were subsequently diverted to the acquisitions of Hays, Taylor Rogers of the Giants, and veteran lefty Wade Miley on a minor league deal (that most certainly will see him back in the big leagues when healthy in May).
While the roster itself hardly looks like a formidable one, particularly on the offensive side of things, Nick Krall went on record indicating that the roster mix is now likely set.
Ooof.
While I’d love to have a few additional names around to make this exercise more complicated, here’s Red Reporter’s latest Opening Day lineup projection, as well as the first overall Opening Day roster projection given than pitchers and catchers report to Goodyear this upcoming Wednesday.
Opening Day Lineup (likely vs. San Francisco RHP Logan Webb)
1) TJ Friedl – CF
2) Elly De La Cruz – 3B
3) Matt McLain – SS
4) Tyler Stephenson – C
5) Gavin Lux – 2B
6) Spencer Steer – 1B
7) Jeimer Candelario – DH
8) Austin Hays – LF
9) Jake Fraley – RF
SP: Hunter Greene
I would love to think that Hays would be relegated to only facing LHP – and to not playing defense at all – but I just don’t think that’s how this organization works. I’m also very interested in how Terry Francona manages the moving parts in the infield, and whether they really try to shoehorn Lux into an OF role instead of sticking him at 2B (clearly his best defensive position). For now, I’m inclined to believe they’ll roll with a left side of McLain at SS and Elly at 3B even though having both up the middle is, in my opinion, the best alignment for them since it’s not the best alignment given the square pegs they’ve surrounded that pair with.
And yeah, Hunter Greene is starting on Opening Day this year.
Opening Day Roster Projection
Position Players
Elly De La Cruz – IF
Matt McLain – IF
Spencer Steer – IF/OF
Jeimer Candelario – IF
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – IF
Gavin Lux – IF/OF
TJ Friedl – OF
Austin Hays – OF
Jake Fraley – OF
Stuart Fairchild – OF
Santiago Espinal – IF
Tyler Stephenson – C
Jose Trevino – C
Pitchers
Hunter Greene – SP
Nick Martinez – SP
Nick Lodolo – SP
Andrew Abbott – SP
Brady Singer – SP
Rhett Lowder – SP
Graham Ashcraft – RP
Tony Santillan – RP
Alexis Diaz – RP
Emilio Pagan – RP
Taylor Rogers – RP
Brent Suter – RP
Sam Moll – RP
While there’s a day off after Opening Day, this isn’t the kind of early-season schedule that features a litany of off-days. The Reds have games on 12 consecutive days after the off-day after Opening Day, so this won’t be a year where they open with a short rotation and extra man in the bullpen on day one.
Also, I think the Reds may use a six-man rotation to begin the season, though I don’t think that’s ultimately the goal for the long run. I am very interested to see just how much they push Abbott to be ready for Opening Day given the shoulder strain that ended his season in 2024, and I would not be at all surprised to find out he’s being brought along ‘slowly’ and will be ready mid-April.
As of now, the only non-roster invites I expect to seriously contend for spots here are Ian Gibaut and Bryan Shaw, though their health (and the health of those I listed above instead) will dictate their potential inclusion as much as anything.