To stand on Crosley Terrace in the wee hours of the morning is to see Ted Kluszewski, Ernie Lombardi, Joe Nuxhall and Frank Robinson frozen in time. Like four of the Great Eight players standing as silent sentinels on the periphery, they represent what has been best about the Cincinnati Reds throughout their long and storied history. To a large degree, they also represent winning. If those statues could speak, they’d likely tell us winning is a product of baseball players doing special things on the field of play. Despite the admiration for Sparky Anderson, Lou Pinella, Fred Hutchinson, and Bill McKechnie, none of those men have graven images gracing the entrance to Great American Ball Park.
There’s a reason for that.
The logic of Occam’s razor fits here, the admonition that the simplest explanation is often the correct one. Players win baseball games, not managers. Simple, huh? No matter how much we attempt to cloud this issue with faulty reasoning about baseball fundamentals, allergies to analytics, assumptions about clubhouse culture and postgame charisma, it’s too often personal bias to buttress a poor argument that carries the day with many fans and too many in the local media.
David Bell was fired as manager of the Reds because blame has to be assigned for the losing—and the people doing the firing never blame themselves. Sparky Anderson was fired long before his expiration date arrived, as any fan of the 1984 Detroit Tigers can tell you.
Mention the injuries—and you’re often greeted with the lazy retort that “all teams have injuries,” and “David Bell has had six years to build a winner,” all of which is oblivious to the fact that Reds ownership has spent the better part of a decade blowing up rosters and betting all on prospects, including—but not limited to—the chaotic period of COVID, which has had significant “aligning payroll with resources” implications ever since. What that has meant is no significant signings to supplement young and inconsistent talent, no one of substance to provide depth, opening the door to those “Bell doesn’t stress fundamentals” cries, as if any manager has ever turned Nick Castellanos or Edwin Encarnacion into players who didn’t field as if their gloves were procured in a nearby junkyard.
The “Bell loses one-run games” argument belies the fact that one-run outcomes are not predictive as proven historically over and over again. It does, however, provide the opportunity to second-guess every walk to the mound the manager made despite the fact that the Reds bullpen is 8th in baseball WAR and the entire staff 7th overall.
While some are celebrating the savvy use of the platoon system by the Detroit Tigers, who have the best record of all American League teams since July 1, Bell has been excoriated for attempting to match up using the “not ready for prime time” players that have been dealt to him by ownership, and to a lesser extent, Krall:
https://x.com/MLBNow/status/1838307850864476443
Fangraphs says the Reds ranking for base running runs above average has stood at the best or second best in baseball for most of the summer. According to Baseball Reference, they had the fewest opportunities in baseball to steal because the offense was so bereft of base runners, necessitating an aggressive approach, an approach that has resulted in an 83% success rate, a percentage bested by only 3 teams in baseball. The response is crickets. The cognitive dissonance would be stunning if it wasn’t so predictable.
Which brings us to Nick Krall’s sorry press conference with the media the morning after. While he insisted the decision to relieve Bell of his duties was his own, it’s difficult to believe that Castellini fingerprints were not all over this decision based on the family’s historical record of meddling. And one gets the feeling that the controversy over base running was one of the philosophical differences that led to the summer of our discontent.
But, we no longer live in the 1970s. We’re no longer listening rapt to the rock opera Tommy. Gone are the days of dictatorial managers like Leo Durocher, Billy Martin, Earl Weaver and that other Tommy, Lasorda. Roster construction, lineups and strategy are all now top-down driven, with front offices often having the final say.
When Bell was hired, he made it clear he wanted his office near the decision-makers in an effort to create a more collaborative and symbiotic environment. The idea being pushed by Krall that Bell’s on field decisions, his base running strategy, penciling Noelvi Marte and Will Benson onto the lineup card on a daily basis wasn’t part of the front office plan all along just doesn’t scan.
And if Krall is indifferent to some of the analytics, it might not be such a surprise given the turnabout of philosophy and sudden departure of Kyle Boddy and others not all that long ago. And if old school guy Barry Larkin is given the crown in a few weeks, well …
Krall and Reds decision-makers would do well to look at the sudden collapse of the Chicago White Sox. While heralded players who never developed played a part, there is this:
“Injuries certainly played a role. But in the winter of 2021-22, the club failed to supplement a roster fresh off a 93-win season. Rodón left in free agency. The team’s biggest signing was a three-year deal for reliever Kendall Graveman. Team owner Jerry Reinsdorf kept his pocketbook clasped shut, and the 2022 Sox won 81 games.”
If no other number sways the fan base, this one should: $104M. It can be done with a paltry payroll, but it requires considerable depth and more than a dollop of good luck.
Bringing in a new voice was always the bugle call when all other arguments for change fell short. But knowing where that voice originated was always key. It always comes from the top.
Whoever was truly behind the removal of David Bell, the fact remains that by his remarks, Nick Krall now owns this. He has sold the pasture to buy the horse and he will have to saddle up and ride with the consequences going forward.
Those who wanted David Bell’s head on a pike to parade around, finally got their wish. They should remember, we are all being played once more by an ownership that thought they could get away with firing a manager that months ago they were oh so sure was worth a 3-year contract extension, and doing it on an NFL Sunday night, when they were convinced the locals would be easily distracted from their buffoonery by using the NFL shield as their own personal shield while Cincinnati fans would almost certainly be fixated on the rival Kansas City Chiefs on one night and the organization at the other end of Mehring Way on Monday Night Football the next.
The Castellini regime reminds one of the magician who claims he can saw a woman in half. You just won’t care to look in the box when they are through.
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