Roster moves galore have set the stage for winter spending!
The administrative decisions surrounding the Cincinnati Reds roster have come fast and furious since the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched their 8th World Series title earlier in the week. Yesterday afternoon saw Ty France and Nick Martini become free agents while Christian Roa was claimed off waivers, with Tejay Antone accepting his assignment to the minors while rehabbing a third Tommy John surgery.
Since then, we’ve seen both Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis predictibly opt out of their end of options and become free agents and Luke Maile’s 2025 option declined, while Brent Suter restructured his existing deal to return on a $2.5 million salary for 2025 with an option for 2026 tacked on. Finally, this morning saw Emilio Pagan exercise his player option for 2025 at $8 million while Austin Wynns, who was outrighted off the roster in yesterday’s action, elected to become a free agent rather than report to AAA Louisville (as was his right).
That’s a lot of movement, something we knew would happen when these clauses were put into contract and when the 60-day IL list of players grew exponentially as the season wore on. Now that the dust there has settled, we can take a closer look at the Reds projected payroll going forward with a lot more precision.
Guaranteed Deals
Jeimer Candelario will earn $15 million in 2025, the second year of his three-year pact signed prior to 2024.
Pagan’s $8 million is now guaranted after he picked up his option, as is Suter’s $2.5 million.
Jonathan India avoided arbitration last winter and signed a deal that included a guaranteed $5 million for 2025, with a further trip through the arbitration process still in his future this winter before he becomes eligible for free agency after the 2026 season (should no additional deal be reached).
Hunter Greene’s salary rises to $6 million in 2025 as part of his long-term contract that runs (potentially) through the 2029 season.
All told, the Reds have $33.5 million in money already guaranteed to these players.
Arbitration-Eligible Players
With France, Antone, and Wynns now off the roster, the Reds have seven arb-eligible players still on the roster who will receive various significant raises above the league-minimum for 2025. They’re listed below with the estimates for what they’ll make provided courtesy of the model created by MLB Trade Rumors.
Santiago Espinal: $4 million
Jake Fraley: $3.3 million
Tyler Stephenson: $5.2 million
Ian Gibaut: $800K
Sam Moll: $1.1 million
Alexis Diaz: $4.2 million
Nick Lodolo: $2.2 million
The Reds will not only have ample opportunity to trade away any of these players prior to the 2025 season, they’ll also have the ability to non-tender them later this offseason should they deem that they aren’t worth their expected salaries. As of now, though, we’ll assume the Reds keep them all on-roster, which would tack on $20.8 million to the payroll.
League-Minimum Deals
Between the guaranteed contracts already on the books and the estimated amount needed to retain all of their arb-eligibles, the Reds have 12 players on-roster expected to earn $54.3 million. To round out their 26-man active roster in-house, they’d have the ability to promote from within 14 players who have not yet reached arbitration-eligibility and therefore would be making league minimum.
League minimum salary for MLB players is set at $760K. A full 14 players each making $760K comes to $10.64 million.
(These are the Elly De La Cruzes, the Graham Ashcrafts, the Matt McLains, TJ Friedls, and Noelvi Martes of the roster, for the record.)
Total Damage
If the Reds were to roll out a 26-man roster right now based off these parameters, they’d do so with a payroll of $64.94 million. For reference, the Reds rolled out an Opening Day payroll of some $106 million to start the 2024 season. In other words, while there are umpteen spots on the roster in need of major upgrades, the Reds should, in theory, have a pretty good pile of money to use to address them.
All contract estimates courtesy of Cot’s Contracts @ Baseball Prospectus unless noted otherwise.