The Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago White Sox had been discussing a trade that would have brought All-Star outfielder Luis Robert Jr. to Cincinnati. Ken Rosenthall and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported this morning that the two sides could not agree on how much money the White Sox would give the Reds in the trade, so it fell through.
How much money could the Reds fail to come up with to make this deal possible? $6,000,000 or less. Luis Robert Jr. will make $15,000,000 in 2025 and he has options for 2026 and 2027, but the team could buy him out after 2025 or 2026 for $2,000,000. The report says the two teams were working on the deal as recently as Sunday. Since that point in time Cincinnati has moved on and signed Austin Hays and traded for Taylor Rogers, who the Reds will be paying $11,000,000 for this season.
The math involved there means that Cincinnati could have had Luis Robert Jr. for some prospects – one of which was being discussed was top 100 prospect Edwin Arroyo – and paying at least some of his salary. Had the Reds acquired the outfielder and had to just pay him all of what he was owed over the weekend, it would have cost them $6,000,000 more than what they agreed to give Austin Hays and Taylor Rogers. And of course that doesn’t even account for the money they will or may owe Wade Miley, who they signed to a split contract minor league deal that could pay him anywhere from $2.5-4,000,000 in 2025 according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
One could try to argue that Cincinnati may be better off with Austin Hays, Taylor Rogers, and Wade Miley in 2025 while being able to keep Edwin Arroyo (and likely others) around than by signing Luis Robert Jr. But one could also argue that they aren’t likely to be better off, too. In terms of WAR, Robert Jr. is projected for 3-4 WAR in 2025 depending on exactly where you look. Austin Hays projects for anywhere from 0.5-1.0 WAR, while Taylor Rogers projects for less than 0.8 WAR, and Wade Miley is coming off of Tommy John surgery and is on a minor league deal at age 38.
None of that math there includes the future values of Edwin Arroyo and likely other unknown prospects in the deal. Nor does it include the future values of Luis Robert Jr. if the team decided to pick up his 2026 and 2027 options for $20,000,000 each.
It’s possible that the point being made that the two sides couldn’t agree on how much money was involved in the deal wasn’t simply about the Reds saying “we literally don’t have the money” and more about “if you want the proposed return of players in this deal you have to pay us more money”, but that’s a lot tougher of a sell given how this organization repeatedly talks about how little money that they have.
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